Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
All that seems to have happened is that the EA Permit has been modernised to bring it up to date. As far as I can tell we still have a production licence at Brockham and we only have to satisfy the EA over PO 01. That is quite different to starting a production licence application from scratch! I think this has to be a good thing as it gives us a firm footing going forward. If there was a major issue in the EA's eyes then they wouldn't even be allowing the appraisal to take place! This is a far better situation than one where full production has commenced and then having to stop which would probably have an adverse impact all round. It also should disarm the swampies who probably didn't think that we would be able to satisfy the EA. I was very heartened reading that the EA had made unannounced visits and everything was in order - i.e. we aren't paying lip service to the EA.
Looking forward now to 2019 when we should all see it come together and be rewarded for our patience.
GLA ATB IMO
Hi Pawn - This was previously discussed on this board towards the end of Nov. Angus then put out the following tweet on Nov 27:
#ANGS New EA Permit for Brockham orderly process and transition with the EA. We are compliant with all the new requirements from the EA. Always in communication with our regulators.
https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1067341648630292481?s=21
Bear in mind it's only 08:23 in Houston - I'm hoping we'll see a Court Case Update RNS later this afternoon. If we don't then perhaps, flicking into wild speculation mode!, they are in "out of court settlement" discussions. Who knows!
David Lenigas, Doriemus’s Executive Chairman, commented;
“We are pleased that the long-term flow testing of the Kimmeridge layers has now finally commenced at Brockham. This work has been a long time coming. There is now obviously a great deal of local and UK attention on the visible activities associated with work on site at Brockham, and Doriemus sees it as totally prudent that the Operator publicly flag its intention to temporarily stop flow testing over the Christmas and New Year break. An unannounced lack of activity at Brockham over this holiday period may indeed cause unnecessary concerns as to the programme underway.”
Quoted from https://www.doriemus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/20181220-DOR_ASX_Brockham-Update-Dec-18.pdf
David Lenigas, Doriemus’s Executive Chairman, commented;
“We are pleased that the long-term flow testing of the Kimmeridge layers has now finally commenced at Brockham. This work has been a long time coming. There is now obviously a great deal of local and UK attention on the visible activities associated with work on site at Brockham, and Doriemus sees it as totally prudent that the Operator publicly flag its intention to temporarily stop flow testing over the Christmas and New Year break. An unannounced lack of activity at Brockham over this holiday period may indeed cause unnecessary concerns as to the programme underway.”
Quoted from https://www.doriemus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/20181220-DOR_ASX_Brockham-Update-Dec-18.pdf
On 29th Nov Diminvestor posted: "This is Angus’ wellsite work programme set out for the next few weeks up to flow at Christmas"
Look at page 10 underneath the Vehicle Movement chart. There it says that the Initial Production Evaluation will take 2 weeks. I think we just need to be patient - this is all going to plan as far as I can see.
https://planning.surreycc.gov.uk/DisplayImage.aspx?doc=cmVjb3JkX251bWJlcj01NTg4KmZpbGVuYW1lPVxcREVGXE1hc3RlckdvdlxEb2N1bWVudHNcUGxhbm5pbmdcU0NDIFJlZiAyMDE4LTAxNDBcQnJvY2toYW0tWDR6IFdvcmsgU2NoZW1lIGZvciBQcm9kdWN0aW9uIEV2YWx1YXRpb24gKFJldjAyKSAtIE1HTyBSZXZzIDE1LjExLjE4KDEpLnBkZippbWFnZV9udW1iZXI9Ni4wMDAwKmltYWdlX3R5cGU9cGxhbm5pbmcqbGFzdF9tb2RpZmllZF9mcm9tX2Rpc2s9MTYvMTEvMjAxOCAxMjo0NzowMg==
pa-richards - totally agree. Vonks is being slated for delivering on his promise - quite comical!
Spot on Snufkin. I'm stunned by the reaction to what is a straightforward factual RNS that announces that our company is delivering on its promise. So many were begging for a confirmation that testing had begun - we've now got it! We know that a commercial flow test takes time so why do people think it was going to be completed in just a couple of days? If this was news coming from a far flung corner of the world where there are no "eyes" then an announcement like this would be being greeted with all round celebration.
100% concur B2. Patience is the name of the game, I'm ignoring what the MMs are up to with the share price as I'm holding tight. Goodnight all!
offtheball - while going the distance would give ultimate satisfaction I would be concerned about it dragging on too long and adversely distracting the business from moving forward in 2019. So I think I would be happy for a settlement that puts all this quickly behind us - this was my impression from the Zaza interview a month or so back. We can see that there is confidence that this will be the case in getting finance lined up to progress operational objectives.
Hi B2 - my opinion is that I think they will be working through a sequence of pre-planned activities/tests some of which will require to be run over a period of time. The data will be collated and then analysed, interpreted, discussed, agreed ... before you know it a week has passed! Having said that, I'll be awake at 06:59 tomorrow morning :-)
B2HS2L - apprehension is only human but I think to get an RNS on flow rates this quick is very optimistic considering the amount of work involved which all has to be done correctly and safely. They've perforated 200m which is no minor undertaking. While I would love to see an RNS sooner rather than later, I'm prepared for it taking the time that it takes. However, I don't deny that it would be awesome to receive news by Friday! Premature partial announcements have been met with criticism and picked apart in the past. GLA
Back in November we got a Court update RNS 2 days later at 14:02 GMT on 22/11 (09:02 KY, 08:02 TX). So while it would be great to hear news tomorrow morning, we shouldn't be too surprised if it takes until Thursday afternoon to receive an RNS.
Patrickd369 - I couldn't have put it better myself, all just need to be patient while the MMs play during the hiatus. RNS isn't a newsletter service: it will land in due course - which could be any time. I would guess that the ANGS team are working flat out to obtain all the data they need and process it into something that can be presented to the market.
Piranha - ANGS is traded using SETSqx. Therefore the share price is driven by the MMs rather than by trade activity as it is in SETS.
If you're saying that any issues experienced by Angus at Brockham will only be felt by Angus then what is the relevance of comparing Angus with another Weald oil company? You seem to one minute say there is no connection but then spend the bulk of your posts trying to make connections. Beginning to sound like a shareholder version of Stockholm Syndrome!
Various in and around Grantham.
In the meantime - going to enjoy a very sunny Sunday here in Lincolnshire and relax with a glass or two of red while we let the boys down at Brockham get on with their transformational work. Hope you all have a happy Sunday too.
ATB from The Moose
My view is that a share price based on PE multiples will come in good time once flows have settled down at sustainable levels. After an initial re-rate (and maybe a spike) I think the share price will grow towards these levels. Over time we'll see the share price establish itself at new (higher) base levels while we await expansion news. In a year's time the current share price could look laughable. Steady growth is the healthy way and will attract investors.
IMO GLA
@Cardinal and Robbo
Below is what Lord Vonk originally said (cut and pasted from a xxxyyyzzz post of end-Oct). Bear in mind that that Brent is selling at about 25% less than it was at the time of the interview and you have to make your own judgement call on the assumed PE range. Some people will say that PE should be based on EBITDA but ANGS can offset any tax with prior losses. So using PE seems good enough as an estimate. Sentiment though will be a more dominant factor than any fundamental analysis using accounting ratios. IMO GLA ATB blah blah :-)
From the interview below, Paul Vonk said: "Each 100 bopd at a P/E of 15-25 = £25m-£40m mkt cap." which gives the following potential mkt caps (and with the 65% ownership already factored in to give the corresponding sp with 381m shares in issue):
100 bopd = £25m-£40m mkt cap (4.25p-6.825p for 65% share)
500 bopd = £125m-£200m mkt cap (21p-34p for 65% share)
1000 bopd = £250m-£400m mkt cap (42p-68p for 65% share)
1365 bopd = £341-£546m (57p-93p for 65% share)
2000 bopd = £500m-£800m (84p-136p for 65% share )
3000 bopd = £750m-£1.2 billion (126p-204p for 65% share )
4000 bopd = £1 billion-£1.6 billion (168p-272p for 65% share )
5325 bopd = £1.33 billion - £2.13 billion (224p-362p for 65% share)
(NOTE: Angus own 65% of Brockham)
Angus flow tested 1365 bopd at HH from 168 ft of kimmeridge then sold their stake to drill the thicker Brockham.
Angus are about to PRODUCE (not flow test) 656 ft of kimmeridge at Brockham. Thats 3.9x more,ie 5325 bopd.