Member Info for Mooney111

i'd like to throw a question out there, and avoid the normal blase statements of 'it'll be at 30p next' and '130 will never be seen again'.

For those of you who are shorting, i'd like to understand why you're shorting (i.e. what you're honestly basing your trading decisions on and where you are getting out and why)

maybe if there's a real substantiation behind your positions and thoughts shared here, there will be less posts on here which are either just rubbish, or abusive. I'm in this at present for the medium haul and believe LTH's will be laughing in a year and i put that out there for transparency and i think that fair value for this share is approx 135-150p for the near term.

May i also ask if there's any statements about long term recovery of flight traffic as substantiation for going short, can you please expand on this, as this would need to link into the current share price which is still circa 47%ish of pre-covid levels.

It would be nice if the 'negative' posts on here were a bit more constructive and who knows maybe you'll educate me.

GLA

what are you basing your view on on Isa? long term i personally believe this has got amazing potential as an investment. However I'm not personally going to be in that category as i plan to be out when this is back at 137ish depending on momentum.

I don't think this has scope to go any lower than 100 before upward momentum resumes.

Kind Regards

Jack

Happy new year all and good luck for 2021

if it closes at 4p i'll be happy. keeping the upward momentum going.

200MA at about 4.5p and the falling trendline at just under 5 now i think will not doubt hold it down a bit but really hoping that it'll lose the shackles when it breaks 5p.

GLA

I disagree, however i'd be keen to understand what you are basing your trading decisions on, or what tools you're using to inform your trading decisions?

GLA

Naturally all IMO, and if anyone thinks i'm out or missed something or am misguided etc, i'd certainly welcome any comments/feeback.

I see the biggest risk to this share-price now being a delay in vaccine roll out as i think at this time of year it will drag out the cash burn. A fast and successful vaccine roll out will improve sentiment no end, and the single dose roll out before returning to the second doses later i think is a very welcome adjustment to the wider approach and alleviating the country's and potentially the worlds pain.

GLA

I'm basing my worst case scenario around 105-ish based on previous day's opening/closing lows on a daily chart, with added support from the rising 50Day MA currently at 103, a pivot on the weekly charts at 105 and a rising 9EMA on a weekly chart residing at 106. Naturally you can base find something that fits your own opinions, but i think these are good indications on the larger time scales - with a view of an improving world with the vaccinations and targeted vaccination rates of circa 2m per week from 2nd week of January. Additionally, FTSE has had 4 weeks on the downside and i think that there's lots of upside coming.

wow rolls held up amazing well with the ftse down 1.3%

the reality is that much of the transmission is via touch. Anything that enters your body once your immune system is primed will be attacked immediately and so no real quantity of virus should be able to establish itself and therefore transmission should be mitigated - although it only takes your body to exhale 1 Covid particle to allow it to spread. I'm no expert but guessing it comes down to how transmission is defined. In my limited knowledge (but also being a science geek), i'd be surprised if the virus could be considered 'transmissable' by those who are vaccinated IMO .

I'd imagine good covid practice and a vaccination should be sufficient to help kick start the world again.

GLA

fingers crossed!! suprised how well Rolls has held up as the FTSE has fallen. Hopefully this lasts. Apparently gov are aiming for 2million vaccines per week according to bbc but not sure when this target is planned to be hit because they've only apparently got 550,000 vaccines ready to go for next week. Still.......as we ramp up i thin we're going to be looking at nothing but positives by end of Jan! any one who has got the luxury of holding shares long term will be laughing in 2 years in my opinion and i'm jealous you have the luxury of being able to forget about it in the meantime :).

Good Luck All!!

I get why you're saying this but I'm not day trading it - I'm swing trading and holding out for 135 -150 depending on momentum. This is however causing me frustration because it continues to go against the grain. If I had enough to invest rather than trade I'd be very happy to put a decent chunk of money into here and see where it ended up in a year or 2 because I think it's a great stock and currently a great price. Unfortunately that's not where I currently reside and my decisions are influenced accordingly. If I had more money to put into this I'd be happily topping up too for my swing trade. Again not quite where things reside for me so frustration currently winning.

GLA

I would love for that to be the case but can only see it going one way after that announcement.

What I don't understand is why a anybody is selling at this level

Absolutely. And I would actually argue that the vaccine approval is considerably more significant to the future of rolls than the current case numbers or brexit etc so my bafflement at this price action continues. This looks like it's shaping up to be one of them where all positives are rejected and when the FTSE tanks that rolls goes with it again. Painful

as does another down day.....

the only issue here mel is that i believe one of the RNS's stated that they have 6months to file end of year accounts and as such have until June. I fear that we will be kept holding for any real info until then. The loose numbers in todays RNS reinforces the likelihood of this IMO.

I hope i'm wrong and that they'll be keen to report a bump back up to towards their £1million +, before inclusion of napster revenues although no doubt they'll just report as one and leave everyone guessing as to where the revenues are coming from.

Apologies for the pessimistic view on this, but i think this is in keeping with how they're communicating to share holders. Doesn't change my long term position - just adds to the frustration.

GLA

I would be doing the same if I had any more spare cash. Frustrating that there's so much selling pressure, particularly when the FTSE , defence and aerospace and travel and leisure all up. Waiting for the vaccine news no doubt but still frustrating when rolls continues to be so so undervalued

GLA

I watched the debates regarding ticket sales and was hopeful for much higher but preparing for the low end. And I must say I am disappointed it's being reported in the tens of thousands. Still, tens of thousands of ticket sales should hopefully mean a decent revenue bump back in the right direction - assuming that we'd be looking at day closer to 100k tickets as a total due to the number of performances (I think this would be a fair estimate - middle of the roadish), and assuming say a £3 of each sale goes to MVR (again I think a fair estimate), then we'd be looking at 300k of revenue. Certainly not setting the world alright but also if we consider that this was mostly in the last 3onths of the year, heading back in the right direction.

GLA

Looks like it. But looks like minimal additional dilution. I'd imagine any of Arden's projections however will now be viewed with a little scepticism as they're now biased.

Good news though that it's cracking on

Good luck all

Multiple start ups and airlines have already started making progress on certifying air taxis. I believe that by 2023 there will be several operational transport hubs evtol tech is having billions upon billions thrown into its development and I'd recommend tracking. Evtol magazine or something similar on twitter is a good place to keep tabs and I personally think anything in the hydrogen chain is going to be making people very rich over the next decade. Ironically I believe rolls will play a huge part in this based around its SMRs that the'yre developing as substantial and cheap 'green' power makes green hydrogen viable. Some amazing stuff going on out there and hopefully rolls will be a big part of it