Member Info for Monty888

Hi Canary & Bucklefern, thx for the feedback. It kinda matches where I thought in that a T/O is very unlucky to go through at under 170p bless we get a very bad update tomorrow (Looking at D2C and retails updates all around, they have been upper end of expectations). I hope we delight above Boots, M&S and have a JD Sports type uplift (Let’s see). In my view view a revenue uplift isn’t anywhere near as importance as the bottom line numbers EBIDTA and PBT plus gross margin (whey lower, should be, needs to be). How well are COGS under control is critical and I’m a little worried no re organizing and optimizing of people costs announced but if a good team and growth is strong maybe no need but I do think he needs to rethink Inginuity and get that profitable quickly. Anyway fingers crossed for good news on all fronts and then we are to 100p next step. Cheers

Reading a few posts around MM’s golden Share expires or he agreed to cancel it in Sept. I believe this will an enormous game changer as I think THG would have to open their books and there could be multiple aggressive bids as long as valuation is say 200p+ MM and his cohorts clearly have the majority share holding anyway. So 2 questions for me that I would love some help and advice with…1. Which RNS date states the golden Share must expire and cannot be refreshed in Sep?…2. Does it make any difference if the BOD (MM & Friends) say bid is too low, you’re not seeing our books and we are not opening up to due diligence? Thx in advance for any data per my 2 questions. I am long ave price 76p heavily invested in the interest of transparency and motives per this post.

Sutardja (should say) buying shares like a mad man.

Hi Shearclass, thanks for your post, it very value adding and perceptive. It is concerning they don’t separate out clearly like for like numbers, acquisitions and also the effect of the ban on chip sharing with China (& maybe more). Without seeing our next results yet, we should still be debt free I think and the SP has tanked since flotation. Sitar dad keeps buying shares above current SP like a mad man. Certainly looks like he is clueless at investing or he knows something and I’m clueless. What do we think fair value of the SP should be right now (I’m kinda 150p) but with a very low certainty factor. Really appreciate people thoughts.

Increasing their holdings today, not surprising really as our next full year results will be almost identical the ones that lifted our SP to 240p. This is very undervalued right now (generating a lot of cash and firing on all cylinders very nicely). Very glad to have 130k shares ave 101p with 3 more years to retirement.

Agree on all points, been loading up have 60,000 now at 42.2p. Maybe it could get back to over 400p. Does look extremely oversold on low trading volumes. As you say potential scupper if terrible results but anything that shows progress could send this up 20 to 50% in very short time…Good luck other investors.

When one looks at the direction, revenue and profit increases at year end they will be very similar or uplifted from when the SP was 240p but a bigger better Net book value company. So above and beyond 190p fair value, I think we will be around 250p within 12 months (Assuming a normal semi bullish market).

Troll all you like children, grow up and learn what drives SP’s, there are lots of examples around like THG dropping from 800p to 46p previously in the 30’s. Only real reason is not Net profit, revenue growth a plenty (Moniman knows this all too well I think). I’m looking to potentially invest and asking if anyone has seen any interims of year end results to analyze their balance sheet, margins, Net profit and cash on hand if any…..

I can’t find any recent RNS’s showing the numbers, without that it’s a blind gamble. The new contracts and revenue mean very little. Revenue is vanity, gross margin sanity, retained profit reality…

The updates are not data checked and flip flop all over the place. They have managed to pump the SP with a lot of fund raising around 8p, ow we see the wobbles. A lot of insiders did well on a pump and dump here. Are any of these contracts going to generate real profit after tax and support debt reduction - I have my doubts right now…..

Keep singing Canary & keep away from coal mines - Happy New Year holders.

Not sure Okey. Revenue is vanity, Gross margin is sanity, profit after tax is reality. We don’t have any increases in EBITDA and we don’t generate cash, that translates to more debt or more dilution and even higher debt servicing costs with ever rising interest rates. This is the core difference between a 50p share vs say a 500p share. So will / can we get to break even and become cash generative. The city says no way, the shortest use that to their own end and our Chair and CEO frankly underperform or under communicate or both. Normally one stays quiet in the absence of good news. I hope the next results show an enormous drop in operating costs and CapEx and a step much closer to BEP and then we can get a positive re rating. Let’s see, numbers talk and that’s it bottom line….

Probably had a goofing Christmas, now we got 6 months of rising interest rates, little to no disposable income for most families and it’s going to be miserable for DOCS same as many other retailers.

Tech and especially chip stocks are out of fashion as the investments required are huge and nearly all are expanding on borrowings, so we have a revenue slowdown and increases in costs of borrowings both. We have dropped on this chip tide also, although we have no net borrowing so we should recover faster than others when the tide turns.

Xophe - You seem confused “Results out next week” The results are out already and frankly rather poor. Lower revenue bigger cash burn. No sign the business model actually works at all for nearly a decade now.

Has anyone been using any of the restaurant's, what the experience like — Food, Service — Where they busy etc? I’m out of country for 1 year and wondering if this is investable, certainly fallen off a cliff past year.

Corporate Governance
The Group's intention to step-up to the Premium segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange remains, with timing subject to the outcome of an FCA review for reform of the listing regime expected in 2023.

They are rethinking the whole thing and probably not sure themselves what to do…Main market listing rules don’t allow golden share, that in turn stops aggressive takeovers companies from stake building and it all combines together to keep the SP down. The only thing that will really set it off up is next results showing cash flow neutral with slight uplifts in revenue again. I think if the SP was actually around 200p MM would probably cancel his golden share as a takeover up from that would be somewhere representative of fair value (In his mind anyway)…Best we can hope for is a very good trading qtr. I think we can forget ingenuity, no new non connected to THG customers onboarding. It’s a good platform but not really that externally customer sellable as the history and current data show.

They are pretty committed on the buy back, it’s easier to reduce or stop the dividend same as Wimpy did. What’s worrying me is the Directors Sales are way bigger than any buys, so something isn’t smelling so good right now. Maybe it’s the slowdown which the insiders see weekly, we only see it after in updates.

Does THG sell in China?

By the way, aware of the 7% annual price increase cap but that’s only on existing not new which will be at market rates. So don’t think this is material at all as increases can be invoked as appropriate. Don’t think they have any rents that are so low this would be a P&L negative.