Member Info for Monkshood

Not the clearest of updates (financial impact? ) but it does seem that everyone being at home is blocking drains and giving watr plenty of work to do unblocking them. Watr has held up better than many shares - I was waiting for a dip down to 225 to top up - looks like I may need to set a higher target....

From Peterborugh Telegraph -
Creigtons ramps up sanitiser production
This follows its announcement on March 3 that it had brought in additional manufacturing capacity specifically for sanitants and hand-washing products
Creightons managing director Bernard Johnson said: “Creightons has responded to the massive increase in demand for sanitants without which much of the UK’s food manufacturing and healthcare sector would be unable to function.
“We have switched production out of our traditional hair and beauty ranges into the now-critical product of sanitant. Whilst the price of core raw materials has in some cases tripled, we have been able to find work arounds and are successfully sourcing alternative component product.

Trading- "With respect to current trading conditions, we are experiencing very strong demand in all our markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a UK manufacturer with very little exposure to convoluted international supply chains, and adequate productive capacity, we are well placed to meet the requirements of our customers in the UK and overseas''
Byotrol-
Negative - They will need to pay a licence to Byotrol for some ingredients for their intermediate disinfectants to keep with regulation changes -
Positive -Novel longer lasting products -Tristel8
Very positive update - for both the short and the longer term. Just need FDA to expediate clearance.

I have been wondering what the impact of lock downs, building closures etc will have. Most other places are not as extreme as in China in the rigidity of the lockdowns. We are coming to the warmer period in many of the territories they operate in which is when pest problems increase. Anecdotally, the building where I used to work, which is being closed , issued a warning about leaving food because of vermin. I cannot see that there will be much of a reduction in the need for vermin control whatever happens.

From the report ' flexibility for the funding of future growth initiatives' - Does this mean underground at Tabakoroni or developing Bibiani??

starbuck, have you looked at the modelling ? When they say 'get it under control' they mean that the number of critical hospital cases will not exceed the current number of beds in critical care. The only way it will' end' is when there is an effective vaccine or herd immunity.
I am invested in NEX because as long as they stay solvent this is a good long term investment. As we have seen, governments are keen to support transport infrastructure and businesses in general so although I expect them to scrap the divi they should survive. I think it will be next year before people are allowed to move freely again.

As expected, it is clear why JW timed his purchases when he did. Expect the March quater trading update to give this a further boost.

I picked up some more - my average is about 200 for this now.

Much better than I hoped for , as long as they can stay solvent they will recover quickly once things have settled down, should be back near 500 in a year or two.

It is hard to see how Covid and a recession is going to have a big impact on Crl, people will still need to wash their hair and the increased sales from hand soap/sanitisers should help. Their online sales, which seem popular should also receive a boost.
I am not sure if I should be , but I keep adding ….

If you look at the modeling the government are using, the change in strategy from mitigation to suppression means that the end point now becomes a (hoped for) vaccine in 12-18 months. It is hard to see the adherence to the 'rules' for this long, so in practice it is likely to end up being somewhere between the two strategies. It should be good for Trist but the economic cost is going to be immense and impact on everyone for many years ahead.
It is hard to measure how many will die because of the economic consequences - both direct because of health issues from having no work and indirect because of fewer resource going forward for social care , cancer research etc. You have to wonder if these will eventually exceed the numbers of those who would have died from a 'mitigation strategy' - trouble is that there is no simple model or 'test' for these. Sorry if rather maudlin , but I have heard of so many local companies already talking of large numbers of redundancies and we are still only at the start of this.

That was my interpretation as well, used it as an opportunity to buy some more.

Any reason?

Up nearly 19% last night to 36-37p , hopefully JW's buys have put a floor under the sp. and the re-rate is underway.

I am trying to help, added some more today.

Yes, if JW, the CEO, buys in ion the open market it does indicate that there are no issues with debt refinancing/Ravenswood sale/ production.
He sold out his holding at the top last year so it seems he is interested in making money rather than a statement!

They supply to a large number of countries in Europe including Italy, and also to China.
We know that they were upping supplies to the NHS and shipped some to China, but it is hard to know how much extra this all amounts to, 10%,50% , 100% increase in sales?

Not sure if it is a symptom or the reason, this is being very heavily controlled by short positions on the asx.
For the past week nearly 1/4 of all trades have been shorts (often -5-6M p.d). The net short positions has not changed too much so far although did tick up a bit today, (note- there is a lag in reported net verse daily gross positions). Overall net shorts have reduced from mid Feb highs of 11 to 6% now , this is with daily shorts around 10-15% traded vol.
The problem with so much shorting is that they damp any rises and enhance any falls. They will also leap on any negative news to push it lower. For a share like this there will never be a short squeeze as they can control it too tightly - especially in the current market.
The question is - do they know something new or are they continuing to take advantage of their short positions, originally built up since last September and encompassing the roaster shut down and the placing?
Tiger has pointed out some possible issues - others could be Jurisdiction (more British troops sent to the North of Mali last week), supply disruptions (not sure what they may be but last week Barrick said they were taking measures to ensure theirs), the unexpected tax bill and longer term, the potential cost of going underground at Tabakoroni .
I was hoping that RSG would be a bit of a hedge against a market fall but it has been my worst performer (reminder to self to use a gold eft next time..).
Production wise it was going well for the first two months of the quarter so I doubt this is the issue, I also do not think that one quarter of good results will be enough to fully rerate the shares - two good quarters will be a minimum. If production has no glitches and POG holds up then eventually the shorts will exit and there should be a big rerate.

I agree, it will need to see the back of the FCA before it fully re-rates to its 'true value' though.

I just read on IC that CRL have been asked to produce hand sanitisers.
I had looked and it was not something that they usually do. I did wonder if they would but was not sure if they could do this if I was not part of their usual range. It explains why the price held up fairly well yesterday after the article was published.
It should be a good set of results later in the year.