Member Info for Monkshood

I agree, I was not sure that Menzies were going to sell out, but after the last rns's from each party it is clear that it is just a public negotiation that almost inevitably will end in a sale.

I think it just part of a general sell off of small caps that has been going on since the start of the year.
I used it as an opportunity to pick a few more up @5p today.
Looking at some reviews from the Shark Reef in Nevada(the site not Immo specifically) from December and January there were a couple complaining about how busy it was even though you book time slots. If this is representative of their other LBE sites then they may well be generating a decent revenue from them this winter.

Looking at the time line of the offers (17th Jan, 2nd Feb)- the news was not as 'leaky' as I would have expected, although clearly it was becoming more widely known since the start of the week.
The fit between the two companies is quite compelling which adds weight to the possibility of the bid increasing.

Well now we know why the price has been rising the past couple of days.
Offer of 510 rejected, up from a previous offer of 460.
Should see another rise today.

Was yesterdays jump due to the Heathrow strike being cancelled?
I have not found anything to confirm this but the page about the strike action on the Heathrow site has now gone.
It looks like they gave their cargo handling guys a 7% rise last year and others are looking for a similar rise this year.
At Gatwick-'Unite are also calling for a strike at Gatwick by Easyjet ground handlers over pay. Despite being offered pay rises of between 7.54 per cent and 8.32 per cent, the union believes this is not enough.'
Does anyone know how much inflation linkage there is in their contracts as wage inflation looks to be a significant headwind in some the countries Menzies operate in?

@CATICHE- I think that you maybe being rather optimistic with your predictions.
The fall in flights in the EU has bottomed out and are now starting to pick up again. They are at 33% of 2019 levels (were 37% down a couple of weeks ago) so improving but still below the 20% they were down just pre Omicron.
US footfall also looks to have turned - now around 70-77% of 2019/20 averages ( it had recovered up to over 90% pre Omicron). The US levels are double what they were this time last year though.
They did well on the de-icing in the US last year and there should be more of them same this year as NW is set to continue cold (el nina effect).
As others have said the new routes should help especially with Australia soon to open. Cargo will be providing a steady income and tourism should really start to gain traction from half term.

Rollins results were quite good . (low double digit growth) and their sp has started ticking up since their results.
Termite control revenues and profits have been improving (13%) due to both an increase in business and in the number of claims against them reducing. This was mainly ascribed to better management. This shows it can be done with the correct management so hopefully RTO will be able to instil this in Terminix (if they get the deal passed the FTC).
Pest- commercial sales increased nicely (RTO’s main area)– due to post covid rebound.

Inflation headwinds were discussed.
Material and supplies –some supply problems and cost increases mainly for termite and ant – recovering by product mix used and increasing prices
Staff costs not too bad, Termite technician costs increasing.
Main cost inflation has been Fleet expenses – 50% increase cf q4 (fuel -increased cost $4.5M) and repair double digits– expected to continue.

Typically Rollins has been a reasonable bellwether for RTO’s US operation so I am hoping for an equally good showing from them against comparable headwinds when they release their results at the start of March.

Terminix should also be releasing their results in the next couple of weeks.

A good set of results.
The company looks well set for this year as everywhere starts to open up and people go out more again.

Well, Peel Hunt was spot on with their revenue estimate with the company's full year coming in at exactly the £241 M predicated a year ago. It will be interesting to see whether they are correct on the profits as well when the full results are released.
Given the level of disruption it show how resilient the business has been and highlights the potential for a less disrupted year.

I agree with your sentiment but I don't believe they a 'hiding' anything.
Historically they have never been overly informative with their January updates, however with this one, they have now got to the point of it being almost so devoid of information as to it being meaningless and as such they would probably better off not releasing anything at all .

Also -
'Airlines will be forced to operate more flights this summer to avoid losing lucrative take-off and landing slots at the UK's busiest airports.
They must use their slots at least 70% of the time to keep them from March 27, UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps announced.'
Traffic volumes in Europe (inc UK) are lower than this point last year, but are double what they were in the US a year ago (although still down on jan 2019&20). Cargo is holding up well.
I thought that we may get a trading update this week?

There have also been 15 Individual mutations seen in S in UK BA.1 (present in at least 10 sequences) this is in addition to the 32 normal mutations in Omicron BA.1
T321I, Q628K,L18P,D108E,A846V,F643L,K859N,L5F,E309Q,V1264M,L425R,I1081V,R364K,A701V,N211S .
Any replacement antibody will need to work for all of these mutations. So far I have only found 1 variant in N.........

BA.2 is rare here but Increasing in the international database (mainly from Denmark) - spike profile of BA.2 contains 28 mutations (so less than B.1) and a deletion at 25-27. It does not have the 69-70 deletion which gives the S dropout seen with BA.1 ad so can be confused with Delta) if just using this marker as an estimate of prevalence.

The reported sharp drop in UK retail sales for December contrasts with the record results up to Christmas for Dunelm - it highlights the strong position the company has carved out in its sector, both online and instore.

Good to see that they have restocked with Lets Explore.
The good reviews indicates that happy customers will be recommending this to friends and so ensuring a steady trickle of orders throughout the years for birthday presents etc.

A good update which should see a steady rise in the sp.
It is surprising how many people just think of SMWH as just a UK High Street and train station/airport retailer. Most forget about road service stations, hospitals and the overseas outlets especially those in the US including those in Vegas.
The TSA numbers show that after the Christmas disruption US airport footfall is starting to pick up again. Although Omicron disrupted CES, Vegas is gearing up for the next batch of Exhibitions. European flights are at their lowest for over a year but with Omicron waning in the UK and changes to testing this situation will reverse quickly.
Work form home is being dropped so train stations will pick up again, hospitals are going to be busy for years catching up the backlog.
The company had expanded a lot in the US just prior to Covid so the benefits of this has still to be fully recognised in the (historical) revenues. They did not dilute and although they did take on more debt it is not unreasonable to see the sp returning to historical highs over the next couple of years.

You make a good point Reaper-it will be interesting to see what they do.

Although this may not be a popular view! some (but not all) of the other LFD's have already been shown to be resilient across several variants, including Omicron. That Avacta's failed does not look great and flags the predictable risk of using S with its high mutation rate, as the target. Even if they swap out the antibody for one that can pick up Omicron, I think that they will need to demonstrate that there is something about this modified test can offer better resilience going forward.
If you look at the phylogeny of Omicron there are already several branches and sub-branches, these are almost entirely due to differing mutations in the S protein (in contrast, in the most distant 15 sequences I have looked at in detail, I have not found a single change in the amino acid sequence of N ). Most of these changes involve just single amino acid so they may well not impact on a test but there will now be more pressure on them to convince regulatory bodies that this will be the case.

Evidently a rabbit goes further still - you can get enough polyclonals for 1M LFD's from a single rabbit...

Cheers for your input ab8dct.
My thoughts about it being a polyclonal highlights my research rather than commercial background - one mouse goes a very long way in the type of work I used to do.
I have read the section multiple times now and I still am not sure what is involved. It is the least clear part of the specification, but is the one most relevant to the problem and what they will need to do to resolve it.

I suppose it is how you read it - it could be a single binder and they are using the plural for all of the complex's that are bound?
But why then use a MAb rather than an Affirm (which they already had and were using in the ELISA)?