Member Info for Monkshood

I think that the comments about the impact of energy costs (beyond the current hedging) will have allayed some concerns around this issue.

Februarys average wind speed has come in at 13.3 knots which is over 40% above the 10 year average. Combined, Jan and Feb are 13% over the long term average. March will be well below, but for the three months it should not be much more than around 5% below the 10 year average.
Prices have increased again to £250MWh and at this stage April is looking like it will be winder than March was. Jeffries yesterday moved from Hold to Buy .
Given the price recently paid for Hornsea Two, the next day price of electricity and the potentially OKish generation for the quarter I am looking forward to Greatcoats update towards the end of April.

I do wonder if some are trading between this and Avacta. I know that there is a degree of overlap in the holders and it does seem if one shoots up the other drops.

He clearly did not feel this was quite enough so he topped it up by exercising a further £400K share option.

With the prices at 4x their working model even with the lower production they should still be making a reasonable profit. What is more interesting is if Hornsea Two is now 'worth' 30% more expected, then UKW may increase their nav to reflect the increase in market value of their existing assets.

From The Times-
'French investors buy half of Hornsea Two offshore wind farm
Analysts at Bernstein said that the price paid by Axa and Crédit Agricole valued Hornsea Two at about a third more than they thought it was worth. They added that it “demonstrates the value external investors are ready to place on such assets” as the world embarks on a shift in how power is generated.'

January wind speeds were OK but below the long term average average (-1.5 SD's) , Februaries will likely have been above (government data should be released soon), March is clearly going to be be well below. Next day prices are still around 200MWh

MD Asia is retiring, he exercised his share options to generate a nice retirement bonus of £1,944,261.64....

Interestingly the CFO purchased some. He commented on the purchase yesterday saying that although he is leaving he believes the prospect for the business are good.
The impact from the situation in Ukraine will be about 1% of revenue(7M?), I think they said unified patents changes was about an 8M EBIT hit.
The main other thing is the short term increased capex next year, 50M over normal run rate.
With the next couple of years looking flat for profit I don't see the share price flying but as a good solid profitable business it should recover somewhat.
Those picking them up at the lows yesterday did well. I think I will keep what I have but I will wait a year before adding.

They are holding a Capital Markets Day at 14.00- you need to register for it though.

I had assumed that the unitary patent changes had been priced in (it has been an overhanging issue for years) and that Ukraine/Russia was likewise also priced in.
What caught me (and I guess others from the 30% fall) has been the forecast of no PBT growth for a couple of years at a time when it was expected that this would be growing with the projected cost savings following the acquisition of SDL.
Still, as you say 50% down from the acquisition does seem excessive. I will see what they say later today and then decide whether to average down or sell.

Well it is a lot cheaper now....
No profit growth for a couple of years has understandably not gone down well.
I was expecting them to be increasing profit not increase spending a year on from incorporating SDL .

It is working out really well. If the price drops then the buyback kicks in and it helps put a floor in, if the price jumps then they cannot buy as the five day average price is too high.

No objection from the US equivalent of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission .
They have said, that with one exception, all of the major holders of both companies are in favour so it looks all set to go forward but with the final deadline now being moved to the end of the year.
They are borrowing quite a bit to cover the cost of the acquisition at a time of increasing interest rates but with a BBB rating hopefully they will be able to still do this at a level to make it worthwhile.

The 30M share buyback should help boost the share price as well.

They would not have been able to buy back more because the price would have exceeded 105% of the average of the previous 5 days (rule of buybacks).

As I added a few as well - the three of us must be responsible for nearly all of the buys!
This time last year many sites were either closed or operating at reduced levels, that has not been the case this year so although the share price may be at the same level they should be in a much better position with regards revenues at this point.
Nearly all the small caps have taken a hammering of late so I am not sure much will change until overall sentiment changes. If they get a large zoo contract we may hear something sooner but I have the end of April pencilled in for the next update by which time they should have Q1 trading figures covering the Spring/Easter holidays which (hopefully) should look quite good.

They are putting an extra dozen seats in a Shark Reef- couple that with an extract about Vegas on Bloomberg this week…. I think things will going OK. I have used the drop to pick a few more up. A zoo announcement would be nice but in the current market I am not sure it would make a huge difference.
‘On a recent Saturday morning in Las Vegas, customers waited as long as a half-hour to get their coffee fix at the Starbucks at the Mandalay Bay resort. By midday there were lines to get into the Louis Vuitton and Gucci stores at the Crystals mall. A queue of about 50 people waited to ride the gondolas at the Venetian resort.’
Clearly a good footfall even before the holiday season which should ensure a comparably good income stream at this location which will soon account for 12% of their headsets.

High fuel price should actually be good for public transport as it will make traveling by bus (relatively) less expensive than driving.

I thought that they were very bullish about their prospects at the Q&A, CEO also seemed reasonably confident that the takeover will go ahead.
It is a shame that the chip shortage has slowed the roll out of Pestdirect which I think is a great offering that help distinguish them from other companies.
Lets see what the brokers come up with over the next couple of weeks.

Surprised by the negative reaction. Given the issues with covid across their geographies over the past year I thought that the return off core business had done a reasonable job of replacing the income from disinfection services but with Omicron during this period it was not surprising that it took a bit off the final quarter.
Plenty of scope for further recovery as things return to normal (with regards covid). They have no exposure to Ukraine or Russia.
Their performance in pest control in the US was strong compared to both Terminix and Rollins which is a good sign that they have got their business model correct.