Member Info for Monkshood

I've dipped my toe back in. The last quarter looked OK and the conference call was very positive about the next. With each management change and better cash flow they seem to be clearing out previous financial 'fudges' which will encourage larger investors (as seen with the recent increased holding by Baker Steel).
They seem to have got the sulphide recovers on track and they are now looking at a higher throughput (to go with an expected announcement of expanded resources?).
I am still trying to find out whether Ravenswood Gold are actually producing gold any yet, anyone know? They need 500k oz before March 2024 if RSG are to get their A$50M, the other criteria (gold price) looks to have been met.
With a proposed annual production of 200koz there is not so much time left.

Apologies, I forgot Hornsea was CfD. Still at 175HWh and with inflation likely to be high again next year it will be making a good contribution. to their profits.

This increases total production by around a further 10% . With todays price at £570MWh this will start significantly contributing to income.

Official data for July comes in at 3.9% down on the 10 year average, much better than the 27% reduction last July. The the average next day price for the month was £243MWh, compared to £94MWh last July, August looks like being around an average of £350MWh (£107MWh- 2021), I think they are a bit lower on wind speed so far this month but with such high prices they will have had a very strong first half of the 3rd Quarter.

At the moment over 2/3 of the income is Merchant (the intention was for this to be 50% over the lifetime of the portfolio).
They are (or at least were last year when I saw a report on it) the least hedged of all of the UK companies in the renewable sector.

I have a shed full of logs, the oil tank is full and I fixed my electricity prices for three years last summer. The only gas we use is for the cooker hob (about 9kg per year). The government handouts more than cover any direct additional costs for us, but I have friends in professional jobs who are already struggling. The increases in mortgage rates and energy bills are going to be incredibly hard for very many this winter. I really fear for some some of the small business around me as they will not be able to cope with the increased energy costs .

Up to£539MWh !
Even if there is a longer term reckoning with decoupling of electricity prices from gas prices they will be banking a lot of money at the moment, this is over 10x what the price was in 2019.

NYT- 'Two Ethiopian Airlines pilots reportedly fell asleep at the controls and missed their scheduled window to land in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.'
Incidents like this highlights the need, and will drive, the widespread uptake of DMS (PMS?) in aviation.

So , they exercise options for 70 k shares (£0.58M ) then purchase them back into treasury . They could have purchased the same shares 200p cheaper late July/early August so it is questionable it was the best use of our capital.... seems more like they are looking after their own interests.

Too much volume, I think it is more likely to be an II. I guess they waited until the seller looked to be out and then started buying.
I had not seen the articles, added more yesterday thinking it was II's and then wondered if I had slipped up with it just being a response to tip in the Times when that was mentioned, strong buying again today does seem a bit too much for it to be retail investors though.
I have seen that there has been some slowdown flagged in forward guidance for a couple of US eyewear vendors ('Both National Vision and Warby Parker have downgraded their outlook for the 2022 financial year, as strong inflation is weighing on U.S. customer demand'), so I have not gone all in on this, will see what the company have to say in September. The management who bought at 290p in June clearly do not see an issue though.

Not sure that I would agree that the 'share price never lies' I have had a nice run up from 600 to 900 in the past two weeks on no news in watr.
The problem for most small/micro caps at the moment is that there are no larger buyers. The big boys are generally avoiding this sector at the moment because of the recession risk . I read an article a couple of weeks ago where F&C said that they had sold all of their small caps holdings to 'de-risk' for this reason.
I don't think that we will see a very large re-rate even on good results as there are so many other 'bargain' small caps (and mid caps) around. So long as the next trading update is OK I will be happy enough to see us back in the mid 4's for now with the prospect of a more significant step up next year.
Personally , I would be delighted if they can find value in the other parts of the business but I am not expecting it.

It certainly gives them nearly A$13M more headroom than was predicted by the analysts .

I was fortunate to get out in April. I have not been following it since but looked at it yesterday and was also surprised by the big drop, not sure if this is bottom but started to pick some up again as they should benefit with more tourism - even those staying in the UK and Northern Europe will be buying sunglasses this year!
The next set of accounts should also be 'cleaner' with the main takeovers behind them.

Todays £2M 'director' share purchase is a pretty strong endorsement that they believe their valuations are robust.

I generally run PIN at around 5% of portfolio with a bit of top slicing/topping up according to the markets and the discount.
Topped up my wife's ISA with a tranche of PIN in mid July so I am in her good books atm!

That is rather harsh. Pittsburgh opened last week, it may have slipped slightly from the original 'end of Spring' but they said why and even then it was only 12 weeks to opening after the contracts were signed. In the context of a three year agreement a months slippage is not too bad. Milwaukee opened on time and looks a far better offering than I was expecting. They have also increased headsets in aquaria.
I was never expecting much from the discontinued elements of the business once they stated they will focus on LBE although the UV cabinets side may have some value.
Not sure what else you can expect unless you want a capital raise so that they have more cash to expand instantly. Personally I would rather they got through this year, lined up orders and then did a raise next year to push the business forward off the back of a solid years trading (and higher share price).

Not surprised.
It is looking more like Truss will win the leadership which should reverse the 5p reduction Greencoat imposed at year end due to Corporation Tax increases. It is also very likely that there should be at least another 4p increase in nav accruing due to increased revenue in the next quarter.
As a consequence I think that they will use this to issue some more equity before year end, they can do it at this price - so only at, or marginally over, nav but with an almost certain rise in the nav to over 160 baked in. With the increasing income plus an equity rise they would move into the FTSE100 (something they mentioned again in the conference call) which would further bolster the share price and help underpin a raise.
With Truss at the top it would seem more likely that the government will just let the REMA consultation play out which means any changes would not be until near 2025 which is the year UKW used as an end for the elevated electricity prices used as a basis for their increased nav (and this is based on very conservative pricing).
It is not without risks but I think it is looking less likely we will see any downgrade to the nav and more likely that UKW will soon be in the FTSE 100 with an increasing gav/nav.

Agree re-US, but they did mention energy costs...
Rolling hedging of fuel costs have restarted and they are 100% fixed for this year and 75% for next at a price comparable to 2021.
Not sure that geopolitical risk will have much of an impact on school buses in the US or regional transport in Spain and Morocco . The main consequence is more likely to be positive, car use has become expensive and higher unemployment will increase the supply of drivers and repress wage rises.

Just caught up with the Q&A's from the conference call.
This topic came up, it may not even happen, but they said in the worst case scenario the cost would be 'mid single figure millions' .

The data for June wind speed has just been released - Q2 comes in at 95% of the 10 year average - UKW production was 1% above budget which I assume reflects the geographic location of their turbines relative to the average wind speed across the UK.
It's very early days but it looks like there will another el nina event this winter which should see a similar weather pattern to last winter.

Busy morning - too many companies reporting today!
Seems to be going OK - US school buses is clearly the biggest problem (it was bolstered by CERTS funding now finished) but this is in one of the least discretionary areas of their operation, ultimately the kids have to get to school and driver shortages/wage inflation will equally apply to competitors. It may be a headwind in the short term but longer term profits will recover.