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Littleathena1 After settlement of the last quarterly repayment, the principal remaining under the convertible bond was reduced by £2.55 million to £40.80 million.

So i understand that each quarter HCI get interest payments in shares and flip them straight away and then this principle amount is reduced each time by a small amount but what are we saying now? Is it that all the heavy selling of late is down to HCI because we are above the exercise price of 119p because that would make perfect sense BUT.......

I would expect to see the princal capital reduced by a significantly greater amount at the next quarterly share issue to reflect the heavy selling. hundreds of thousands every day now for months so surely knocked a good few million off the princilap amount. Is that what we all think?

That would be great of course because it leaes us in a better place financially and interest payments will be lower as well as we reduce the principal amount.

This could mean that the 119p area becomes a magnet fo the shareprice until the debt is bought by others or cleared OR final scenario is it just vecomes immaterial as news sends price rocketing.

Appreciate your thoughts and insights

What I don't understand is the convertible bond with heights. Can anyone help.

General consensus seems to be it is them whom aer selling all the big blocks of shares and if that is the case then there motives are easy to understand and bare no reflection on the potential of avacta so i am happy with them dumping shares. IF it is them.

What I dont get is how they seemingly just dump hundreds of thousands of shares daily. How can they do this? Each quater they are allocated however many shares which equates to the interest payment on the bond which shorely shorely must have been all sold by now given all the volume so where are there other supply of shares coming from to dump i.e. can they just sell there core amount? and if that is the case shoudl we expect to see a significant drop in the principal amount outstanding on the next quarterly interest repayment stage?

Please explain to me as if you would explain to a child.

Thanks

Data release IS the most important day in Avacta's history without question

But as a company like this progresses and goes from strength to strength, each new milestone becomes THE most important day.

There was a time not so long ago when we didn't even know if AV6K would be safe in animals but it was so an important milestone

Then we saw it produce stunning efficacy results in PDX models

Then we saw it was safe in humans

Then we saw therapeutically significant levels of dox in the tumour biopsys

Then we see first signs of efficacy

Each one of these was the most important day in avactas history at the time and so whilst data release is THE most important day now, after this the inevitable deals being signed and validation of the tech by a third party will be the most important day

Unlike 99.9% of small caps that promise the earth and do nothing but dilute and disappoint shareholders, AVCT is quite the opposite.

We'd all like the price higher but given the AIM market has collapsed this past few years while AVCT has held up then it shows you the underlying strength here for when the market turns and/or improved fundamental news is released.

I am really looking forward to this data release as it proves beyond any doubt how good not only AV6K is but how these results so far validate the entire precision platform.

1 final but important thing to remember is that the bar is EXTREMELY low for AV6K to replace dox. All it needs to do is provide exact same efficacy and all barring one of the side effects and it's an improvement on the standard of care and so becomes the new standard of care overnight - arguably this has already been achieved. The question now is just how good is it and just what other possibilities can this lead too.

Easiest buy and hold ever.

LOR_9 WHAT are you talking about this isnt a binary event where we are waiting on drill results and there is potential to find a duster

This is just data release to back up what we already know i.e. to find out what is behind phrases like paradigm shift or ground breaking.

The data release in itself is not going to shift to shareprice but it is the information any potentail partner is waiting for and which will lead to deals

Either we find out the whole team have been lying to us and injecting ribena into patients or we find out what most of us sensible ones expect and that is we are seeing a paradigm shift in oncology

IF the selling stops I suspect it is because the buyer has brought enough for now at least

As why wouldn't HCI sell everything they have?

Most likely scenario now is volume drops off and price floats around for a few days until the data is released and the presentation is given then we should see new entrants taking positions in anticipation

This is if a deal of some kind doesnt land as I think it will and then all bets are off how high avct soares. Make sure you are positioned accordingly because it wont be eas to buy ant volume when you want it.

Seen the ones from yesterday?

Huge trades now going through. Anyone know if they are buys or sells? I suspect buys because price paid

Its just opinion but based on what i have learnted

Big pharma are fully aware of avacta we know this due to the poster presentations they have been giving and Dr Tap promotion and even the head of novartis drug development saying she thought avacta are on verge of a paradigm shift

We know big pharma will want to act quickly once data out to stop a competitor gaining an advantage and that big pharma are sat on a 1.2 trillion pound M&A fund

We know big pharma are facing a patent cliff and need to desperately replace those revenues

We know AVCT have had an uptick in commercial interest and the CEO has laughed and said don't worry about funding. He also has said something like data changes the tpey of conversation we have with pharma partners

We know AVCT were advertising for a BDO recently and that avacta have entered the commercialisation stage off the back of data.

We know AVCT were set on releasing data in a peer reviewed journal and then suddenly decided to release it next week

Just seems to be that a lot has gone on behind the scenes and although its not certain it also would not supprise if avacta did announce a deal of some kind prior to the presentation. This whole release is being managed for maximum effect now it seems

It is most likely big pharma who are interested and have been talking to AVCT ref uptick in commercial interest have seen the data and AVCT are putting the final touches on a deal and some human stories basically getting there ducks in a row

then Wednesday morning we get the deal announced via RNS and follow it up with a detailed review of the data at 11am.

Investors will be given a copy of the presentation shortly after to then pick through all the detail but it will be largely irrelevant as we'll have a deal in place validating the whole thing

Exciting times

Market cap under 400m

What a time to have spare money

He sonuds like he is just getting on with business

We should just leave him alone and let him crack on

Timster I dont know who it is but I know they are persistent

it amuses and amazes me smalltime investors are trading in and out for a few hundred pound or thousand pound gain here or there meanwhile quite obvious accumulation is occuring at quite staggering levels.

One day soon the price will rip and there will be no getting in at this level or anywhere near it

when that will be I dont know hence why I stopped trading and just held it

Trading it is more risky than just holding it I believe

As it is not one you want to be out of when MMs let it go

After this accumulation has finished

Why people sell and let them buy this cheap is beyond me

Just went through.

if ur selling today ur being mugged off

Wyndrum have we started the 2 week dosing yet?

From 19th September RNS it states this "Therefore, in parallel with the completion of cohort 7, the Company intends to begin a short study to explore more frequent dosing (fortnightly) of AVA6000 as a first line treatment in patients with soft tissue sarcoma. The study is expected to begin in Q4 2023 subject to receipt of approval of a protocol amendment from the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA)."

And as we have not had an RNS stating we have approval from the FDA for a protocal amendment then I had assumed we hadn't started 2 weekly dosing yet

Looking forward to having this elaborated on>>>

In addition to the excellent safety profile being observed for AVA6000, clear signs of efficacy have now been confirmed. One patient with soft tissue sarcoma has shown a significant reduction in tumour volume in response to the drug, WITH FURTHER SIGNS OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED IN PATIENTS WITH CANCERS NOT LIMITED TO SOFT TISSUE SARCOMA.

As well as finding out what affect 3.5x the maximum level of straight dox is doing to tumours now.

Looking forward to having this elaborated on>>>

In addition to the excellent safety profile being observed for AVA6000, clear signs of efficacy have now been confirmed. One patient with soft tissue sarcoma has shown a significant reduction in tumour volume in response to the drug, WITH FURTHER SIGNS OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED IN PATIENTS WITH CANCERS NOT LIMITED TO SOFT TISSUE SARCOMA.

As well as finding out what affect 3.5x the maximum level of straight dox is doing to tumours now.

Are AFC now providing hydrogen or are they a tech company?

I follow as interetsed but man its tough sometimes cutting through

When are they going to generate meaningful sales that is all I wanna know

Pretty obvious to me that there are 2 outcomes

1. The data backs up what Alistair, Fiona, Eliot et al have been telling us all year (Lots want our tech, paradigm shift etc)

OR

2. They have been lying to us and the scientific community and fooling the likes of Dr Tap all year and this is the the end game where they admit it's been ribena being put into patients and the whole thing is a scam

It's one or the other, take your positions accordingly because one will see SP rally and the other will see it crash. Either way it wont be hovering around the current valuation following this. I know what I think ;-)

Thats the problem derampers face with avacta

The shareholders really do know there beans

inside and out

Theres no plausible argument as to why it will not be a success, there is no line of attack that hasn't been explored and discounted several times over. All derampers have left is the absurd and abstract negative scenarios that are more laughable that the serious investor here doesnt even need to go look at the argument ind epth. As the CEO himself has said "I have no doubts this will be a multi-billion pound company" Probably a reason why he himself is so heavily invested

Https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/pharma-patent-cliff-biologic-drugs-humira-keytruda/642660/

Oilnovice it is right that you do need to do some of your own research as other posters have said. it carnt all be spoon fed. just look at the patent cliff alone quick google and you see the problem facing big pharma see link above

They need to not only replace revenue they are set to shortly lose as drugs go off patent but need to increase there revenue to cotninue driving there shareprice and keep shareholders happy. precision does that. The technology can be used to modify a range of toxins opening up new revenue streams for them all on patent.

Like our CEO said. precision is a paradigm shift for oncology and our very own Dr Foster have said "lots want our technology".

There will be a bidding war. it s a matter of time.

Oilnovice I answered your question earlier with regards to profits. Just look at the patent cliff facing the likes of Novartis et al. They can use precision to modify their drugs and effectively put them back on patent at double the price.

Not only that but they can use precision to modify other drugs preciously too toxic to put into humans and so far can treat people with 3x the max level of straight dox so you see the current market of around 50bn quickly trebles or more. You're looking at a platform technology with potential to expand the current market to around 200bn

So to answer your question, there is plenty of profit and finnaical incinveive for big pharma to get involved here. The biggest risk they face is this technology falling into a competitors hands

Https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/abbvie-to-acquire-immunogen-including-its-flagship-cancer-therapy-elahere-mirvetuximab-soravtansine-gynx-expanding-solid-tumor-portfolio-302001994.html

AbbVie to Acquire ImmunoGen for 20x 2024 sales

This sector is red hot at the moment, deal could land anytime. Literally any time