Member Info for Moneymaker2015

It’s an interesting one this. Odd that they would email a proposal through on deadline day, especially so SAU couldn’t respond as it was Australia Day. It definitely appears intentional.

This puts SAU in a difficult position. If they refuse and opt to sell to someone else, it’s likely they’ll struggle to get much more than than $10m as that’s what their half is valued at. This would cause uproar from shareholders, especially when they saw our and the other companies 2 & 3 year revenues. When they first announced it was up for sale a lot of their shareholders were complaining as these are the only mines they have which are very close to production. Getting $10m for them, when 3 years down the line they could be worth 10x that wouldn’t put their BoD in the best light. They couldn’t retract the sale option now either as it would make it look like they don’t know what they’re doing. It’s as though our BoD are trying to force SAU into accepting terms, rather than negotiating.

I’m not overly concerned about anything here at the moment as I only bought for the 50% interest a few years ago, so nothing has changed on that front. Worst case scenario we are delayed whilst they sell to someone else. In which case we are still better off than we were 12 months ago as we now have funding sorted.

As I say, interesting scenario this and I’m curious as to how it will pan out. It does make a bit of a mockery of the 60 day timescale though.

It’s for that reason why I’m a little disappointed we didn’t go for a full cash buy-out. Negotiations would have been ongoing for a while. As soon as it became clear that SAU were playing hardball we should have just sought the cash and had done with them, rather than letting the ball stay in their court after deadline day.

As you say ConMan, 12 months ago we didn’t even know gaining 100% was an option. The silver lining as you say is that SAU don’t need the cash and they’ll be aware of how much this could be worth to them in the future. If they had to sell to a third party they likely wouldn’t get much more than the estimated value and may lose any chance of keeping a stake in the projects at all.

For the avoidance out doubt Dubliner, I was referring to someone’s previous comment about this consolidating: in a reverse split as you say. This form of consolidation is never a good thing from my experience. I did follow it up with ‘ Personally though, I would be surprised if we either consolidated or diluted’ as I don’t think either are on the cards.

In terms of general consolidation, that is always a positive and we are fortunate to be in a position whereby it has already consolidated around the current range.

Regarding the dilution worries of some, as per my previous comment I’d be very surprised indeed if this were on the cards.

I agree about the consolidation. Having been through quite a few of them it has never once been profitable. The latest was ALTN about 2/3 months ago. My holding is now worth 50% of what it was prior to the consolidation.

Personally though, I would be surprised if we either consolidated or diluted much at all. Near every mining company I’ve been with that has sourced off take agreements has been in order to obtain bank funding. If your intention was solely to have dilutive funding offtake agreements wouldn’t be necessary as such because you could just mine the resource and then sell batches of it at an agreed rate. Offtake agreements however, show funders there is indeed a market for the resource and that companies will be able to afford repayments.

It does sound like the ball is very much in SAU’s court for the moment. I’m still a little disappointed that the BoD didn’t go for a cash settlement, even if it required dilutive funding as we would have only required 250m additional shares at most. Considering the ‘offer’ is likely to involve some form of dilution or royalty anyway, it would make little difference in the long run anyway.

Fingers crossed this gets wrapped-up quickly and we can find get into production.

Well that’s a bit of an anti-climax!

An ‘offer’ should have been made before Xmas and then negotiated until a firm decision was made up to this point. We shouldn’t have only just made them an offer that they’re now reviewing.

Whilst I’m wary that SAU could now turn around and say we didn’t settle by 26th. SAU do know that keeping some involvement in the mines would be more cost effective in the long run, especially now they don’t currently require the cash.

Yeh it’s one of my pet hates and seems to happen with every company I’ve ever invested in. They nearly always leave things down to the wire. To top it off, half the time things get left to the final day and then an announcement comes outs saying they’ve agreed an extension of time. I’m hopeful with this one that things should have been agreed already and the only reasons for an extension is if shareholder approval (by either side) is required for anything or paperwork needs finalising.

The update will likely be tomorrow. Today’s the final day, but usually SAU provide an update first. However, with it being Australia Day they won’t provide an update until tomorrow (tonight GMT), which BMV would likely provide an update tomorrow. If no update has been provided by tomorrow then I’d be curious as to what is going on.

It’s a tough one with AAU. In terms of the current valuation, it’s only particularly relevant to a share holder if they are looking to sell and it’s only important to the company if they’re in search of finance or a sale, which AAU won’t be for quite some time (if at all).

Currently, I personally believe the assets are worth significantly more than £50m. However, the deal is a double edge sword. It needs to be done to help us progress Salinbas further, but dropping down to 23% over the board also significantly reduces the value of the company itself.

Things are definitely heading the right direction and the upcoming dividend will hopefully help the share price, but I think we’re going to need confirmation of an annual dividend and news of new projects to get some more traction in the share price.

I usually just go to the SAU website. They tend to make the announcements the night before BMV release anything on the LSE. Can’t remember exactly off the top of my head but I’m sure it’s around 20:30GMT.

I’m surprised there’s not been more people taking a punt on this one. With the right news tomorrow the share price could quite easily double or even treble. Even with the worst case scenario, give it 12 months and the share price will still likely be above today’s price. As far as shares go, this fairly low risk compared to the reward.

Definitely, regardless of whether the share price moves this week or not, if we get the news we’re hoping for I’ll definitely be cracking open a bottle of bubbly as the company could be in a very good position indeed by year end!

Yes 100%. I particularly like that the BoD retain decent portions and went out of their way to obtain non-dilutive funding. To me it just says one thing, which is they want to get it into production, prove-up the resource using the cash generated and then sell it on for a huge profit later down the line.

The lack of interest here does surprise. The tunnels already in place span for kilometres and much of it still has gold in already, never mind if we were to dig further and deeper. Like you say, one of the best kept secrets. It does happen though, even with EUA I was telling people when that was at 0.45p 2 years ago just how big the area was but no one really took notice of them until they put up the for-sale sign. Confirming the purchase of the other 50% and indicating productions dates onsite this year will be our catalyst.

Well we’re down to the last couple of days to what could be the biggest news the company will ever release.

Either Monday or Tuesday, or very worst case Wednesday, we could be starting our journey to that 5 year target of 100,000 oz Au per annum. That’s $186million each year, before our low operating costs at this mornings gold price.

There’s no guarantees the share price will sky rocket on the drop of the news but if we do get the news we’re hoping for, one thing is for sure; which is the share price will only be heading one way over the next few months & years and that’s upwards.

I’m not going to be able to sleep over the weekend! haha

It’s not too surprising we’re finally rising though. Out of my entire portfolio, BMV is the one I’m anticipating to be big this year. I did quite well last year with EUA, GGP and even UFO from 0.09p to 2.6p. This year I’m expecting BMV to follow suit due to the large volume of news that will come out over the next 12 months (assuming we get the anticipated news within the next week). It’s definitely an exciting time.

It’s not surprising they’re being squeezed to be fair, any entry price below 10p is an absolute bargain.

One thing I’m wondering is whether any additional news will be released, if they do indeed announce the purchase of the other 50% this time next week.

They announced on 12th Oct that they were already in discussion with Contractors and would provide an update within the next couple of weeks once contracts were signed.

Similarly, they announced on 11th Nov that; ‘Prior to the conclusion of the acquisition process the Company expects to provide further positive updates from South Korea this month’. Ultimately, we ended up getting the independent experts report a little earlier than expected, which took over in the hierarchy of news.

We could potentially be in a position next week of not just having confirmation on conclusion of the outstanding 50% purchase but also signing of contracts by a contractor and ultimately a commencement date on site.

The way the market always seems to view AAU’s news makes me laugh. This is outstanding news as failing to obtain this approval could have put a stop to the deal completely.

The company has already announced that they intend to use 50% of the proceeds as a dividend and that the deal will be quickest way to release value from Tavsan and Salinbas. It makes you wonder, what more does the market need...

So anytime between now and next Tuesday the big news is going to drop!

The share price went up to 5.6p last time as we awaited a decision on the price by the independent expert. Hopefully we’ll see it rise again over the next week, before the news drops.

Just think, the 5 year target is 100k per annum. At today’s gold price of $1840/oz, less the $576/oz operating cost, makes $126 million per annum! It is mind boggling just how under the radar we still are and how low the mcap is. It’s almost the same as the anticipated first years revenue!

Incase anyone needs a recap of what we’re holding of for;

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/cpt-company/bluebird-merchant-ventures/

Less than a week to go now...!

The thing is, the size of the first tranche is irrelevant. Personally I believe it would have just been enough to tidy things over without going to the market. However, what is important is that we have a legally binding agreement with a minimum of $5m (enough to commence production).

Having already drawn down the first tranche itself does have some relevance though. It now means the funders are committed, so even though it hasn’t been clarified that the additional funding can be used for the purchase of SAU’s 50%, the chances of them releasing the money for this purchase has greatly increased. Effectively, the quicker we get into production, the quicker they receive their gold.

Never assume my friend, it makes an ‘a s s’ out ‘u’ and ‘me’!

It’s been SAU’s updates that I’ve been reading first each time. They usually get released around 20:00 London time, the night before BMV release anything. Plus, SAU tend to be a little more active when it comes to interviews too.