Member Info for Moneymaker2015

Batangas has already been written-off the balance sheet, so any value for it is better than nothing. The had been previous discussions about a sale or potential JV, so BMV won’t be running it.

Value wise, Batangas has near 450k oz Au, so is worth a decent amount, especially at today’s gold prices. Personally, BMV would be better off retaining it until the company is in a position to mine it themselves (if that’s ever an option) as the value will continue to increase in the future with gold forecast to continue rising.

As low as the EBITA is, another 10 or so of similar size would require little or no dilution and would satisfy our current mcap on their own.

Mac, that’s actually what I was saying. Having the market value of the company plummet because you’ve sold-off all the assets wouldn’t be considered shareholder value.

On the ‘same or more than the $8.3m EUA has already invested’. That is just one of a number of mechanisms to value the JV. The “or more” could be $10m, $100m or $1b+. It would been a bit ignorant of me to use an actual figure though.

As I say, my personal belief is that the JV will be retained, purely on the issue that if indeed all of the assets are sold, EUA would become a shell with no value remaining, unless there are other assets that the BoD have their eye on.

I admit, my own thinking tends to be inline with yours Mac in that the JV assets will be retained. Not on the valuation side of things as that’s a fairly simple hurdle. The buyer would just have to pay the same or more than the $8.3m EUA has already invested. I believe it will be retained as a dividend was specifically mentioned, indicating that it’s not a full company sale. Plus EUA is currently valued by the market at not far off a billion dollars. The market value would plummet if all the assets, including the JV were sold-off. Unless that is, that the BoD have something else up their sleeve that hasn’t been announced yet...

The wording of the RNS makes it a little ambiguous as to the extent of the sale. It mentions after the announcement of the JV, the company has:

‘now received several proposals including a proposal from a credible party for the potential acquisition of substantially all of Company's assets. The Board has decided to focus on this potential asset sale’

It makes it sound as though the JV assets are included, but then what would EUA be left with? If it was selling everything off, surely it would be a takeover, rather than an asset sale, which makes you think the JV assets may not be included and it’s the other assets that will be sold.

Yep, same one.

Hopefully it’s all upwards from this point. We’re funded for all current requirements, are cash generating and all projects have good upside potential. The mcap is minimal and nowhere near reflects the possible value of the company. It will interesting to see where this is in 12 months time.

Yes EUA’s done me alright to be fair. I did actually sell-up at 42p but then bought back in a couple of weeks later at 28p, but this time with a slightly lower holding as I used the chunk of the initial proceeds to pay off the mortgage.

What I particularly like about KAV is that both the KSZ and KCB could be huge plays. An exploration company is lucky to find one asset with this kind of potential, never mind two!

It does have a similar feeling as EUA did a few years ago. I’ve been in there since 0.45p, so when that comes to a conclusion will likely have a decent size top-up here.

The biggest risk here is dilution, so hopefully after some initial drilling KAV can find a partner to fund the remainder of the exploration.

This is the kind of news you want to whilst you’ve already got some upward momentum.

KAV is throwing out positive news on each of its projects momentarily.

Yes I’m kicking myself now. I had a spare £7k that I thought I’d have a top-up here when I saw the share price below 25p. Got quoted 25.1p and thought “I’m not paying that!”. Ended up putting it in MNRG instead, Doh!

Investing in any non-producing company requires that little bit of extra judgment. Near-term producers are the lowest risk as they’re less likely to dilute to heaven and high earth. However, it does still happen, just take a look at VAST for example.

Being on the main market reduces the likelihood of dilution compared to AIM, but it isn’t overly difficult to produce a prospectus either.

Juniors with huge plays are always a bit of a risk, due to the extensive exploration required and capex to get into production.

Being more than a one trick pony also helps as it reduces the risk of solely relying on one asset. Unfortunately, bringing more than one asset into production is costly and often increases dilution.

MNRG for myself ticks many of the right boxes. Already producing and at a profitable rate. Has additional assets that are anticipated low capex. Yes, the share price may hold around the Placing price for a while, but long term it’s a fairly low risk investment in comparison to the potential reward.

I’m thinking the same thing Re: a JV with a major. GGP did me very well last year and if KAV can show some good drill results, I can see this going the same way.

The lack of market activity makes you think the value of the TDEM results aren’t being realised. One set of a good drill results that a section of the TDEM has shown to be a good prospect, indicates the remaining areas showing positive TDEM results are also highly prospective.

Once an initial drill programme has been undertaken, KAV could potentially have an mcap over a billion in a very short period of time. Obviously that figure is purely speculative, but if there’s any substantiation indicating KSV is anywhere near the size that the BoD have suggested it could be, it is a very substantial play indeed. There’s still high risk, but the potential returns here definitely make it worth a small punt.

This guys posting history provides some entertaining reading.

He lost money on DISH, so came over here to de-ramp and have a few pops at Aidan. He says the share price is going down, yet it’s gone from 3p to 4p.

On OPG (which I also hold), at 19p mid Feb he says “22p end February and 60p before year end”. It’s actually dropped to 17p, so well off his 22p valuation.

On JLP (another of my holdings), at near 16p he says “ Phenomenal upside potential. Things have only just started to get going here”. It was down at 2.6p last year, so was far from just getting started!

I genuinely don’t think I’ve ever met a more clueless investor.

On another topic, there’s only 7 weeks left of Q2, so hopefully won’t be too long now until we get some news. With gold prices soaring too, it’s making BMV’s investment case stronger by the day.

Without going into share price predictions, it all depends on what price you got into EUA and your perception ie 10 bagger, 100 bagger or for some potentially maybe even 1000 bagger.

If you’re looking at 10 fold returns, there’s a hell of a lot with potential on the market. 100+ fold returns, you need to look at some riskier investments that are still in infancy and likely to have numerous projects, ones like GWMO, SRES, ARK or THR. The obvious risk however, is that none are currently producing. This increases the chance of dilution, which in ultimately lowers your potential return.

If you’re looking at resource size, the only one on the market I’m aware of in comparison, that the mcap is still rock bottom, is KAV. It’s openly said many times it believes it’s KSZ project has similarities to Norilisk. However, there’s a reason for the low mcap and that’s because it’s still early days and there’s still a big risk. Until it digs later this year / early next year, the risk is very high. On the other hand, if you’re one to wait until something is “de-risked”, it’s very unlikely you’ll get in early enough to see the biggest returns.

The only thing I would say is that if you’re looking for a 100 fold return, you need to be looking at holding on to something for a minimum of 3 years, likely much longer.

It’s nice to see gold has finally consolidated. The sudden rise last year was off the back of supply issues due to Covid-19. The sudden drop thereafter was caused by increases in the supply chain. The only thing that didn’t change was the fundamentals. Gold has been on a steady rise for a couple of years now and was anticipated to keep rising had Covid-19 not happened. Now things are heading back towards normality, gold has now fallen back on to its pre-Covid upward trend.

If gold keeps rising towards $3,000/oz within the next two years as some analysts have been predicting for a while. BMV may be a very profitable share to be holding. At the moment there is still an element of risk, but the potential EBITA from BMV having its current 50% is excellent, never mind if it were to receive the other 50% of the mines (as is expected from SAU’s comments).

It would be nice if the BoD were able to provide an update on if/how Covid-19 is affecting the company at the moment.

India is getting hit hard at the minute, probably more so than any other country has been previously. Some form of update would be welcome to see what affect its having.

It makes you wonder what the company has to do to get people to take notice. It’s like the last time we went over 5p, from memory I think it went to around 5.6p (although I may be wrong), I genuinely thought we would never see sub 5p again. Yet somehow it just slowly drifted back down. I can’t grumble as I’ve been here for from circa 1p, so still a decent return. However, every time good news is released, the share price seems to go two steps forward but then takes a step backwards before the next set of news.

I am thinking, maybe not with the special dividend, but upon news of a regular annual dividend (whenever that day may be), that’s when we’ll start seeing a little more attention.

Another great update once again from the company. At least we know operations will be maintained in Arzu North, whilst other areas are bought into production.

I do have to admit, of all the years I’ve been trading I’ve never seen any other company consistently release so much positive news, yet it have so little effect on the share price. It’s truly baffling!

SAU’s Q1 update this morning/last night says:

“Discussions are now in an advanced stage and Southern Gold expects to update the market in the coming quarter”

It corresponds with SM’s previous comments ref: H1. We’re already a month into Q2, so any day between now and the end of June, the news we’ve all been waiting for should drop.