Member Info for Moneymaker2015

This research note is very informative:

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Bluebird_Merchant_Ventures_Align_Update_05_August_2020.pdf

Obviously DYOR as well as this…

It was inevitable some were going to sell, it is/was up 24% to be fair.

The way I look at it though is, now the deal is sorted and finance already secured, the risk has considerably reduced. The next batches of news are going to be in relation to pre-production works. This will bump the share price up again and people will sell. Same will happen again once in production, it always does. The thing you have to ask yourself is: will I be kicking myself if/when this goes over 30p etc. If the answer is “yes”, you don’t sell. If the answer is “no, I need the money now” or “no, I’ll take this profit and invest it elsewhere and make more”, then selling may be the better option.

Personally, I wouldn’t sell, the risk keeps reducing and production is very likely to now commence this year. Unless something drastic and unexpected happens, there’s only one way the share price is going.

A little food for thought:

- 5 year target of 100k/oz Au per annum.
- Current gold price $1,776/oz
- Operating costs <$576/oz

- Operating profit $120,000,000/annum

Administrative costs will likely increase considerably, but we’re still looking at an EBITA of over $100m/annum.

Considering BMV is fully funded to production and has already received 3 tranches of funding (that we know of), we won’t be seeing any further dilution. Circa 600m shares fully diluted. We’ll likely be looking at dividends higher than the current share price. Absolutely phenomenal job by the BoD really.

Long term (maybe even short term), on the balance of probability, this will be going over 50p due to the limited number of shares on the market. Possibly considerably higher!

I’m glad I got in at sub 2p, but even yesterday’s price of 3.3p represents an absolute bargain considering the long term potential here.

Hopefully we’ll see a nice little jump in share price once the market opens too.

Literally just seen that myself now!

Fantastic deal by BMV too. Considering the value of the deal was circa 50% of our mcap, I was anticipating worst case scenario it would have been closer to 400m shares issued.

Onwards and upwards from here as production commences and ramps up to the 100,000 oz/annum mark!

It’s crazy what’s going on with the share price here at the minute. I’m almost back to breaking even again! I genuinely thoughts once this went back up to 18p that it wouldn’t drop below 16p again.

I’ve always thought of OPG as a long term hold, but it’s getting a bit silly now!

Why are people comparing KAV and POW? They have JV’s for 2nr licences at Ditau and 2nr licences at KCB. Other than these licences and some relatively small holdings in each other, they’re two very different companies.

Rolf will soon have the excess stock cleared-up if he keeps buying at the rate he has over the last week!

The main things for MNRG are that oil prices are soaring, gold prices are soaring and the world is slowly moving towards sustainable and renewable energy sources. It has all the right fundamentals.

Slow burners aren’t always a bad thing, gives you more time to accumulate and reap greater benefits later down the line.

It’ll just be a matter of time with MNRG. Things seem to be moving fairly rapidly. This year alone it’s managed to acquire the oil & gas project and get involved with the waste to energy project. If things continue at this pace over the coming 18-24 months there’ll likely be a couple more revenue streams, which will inevitably increase the share price.

Looking at the current mcap, we’re probably where we should be based upon the current position of the oil & gas and waste to energy. It’s Gold Ridge that doesn’t appear to be factored in at all. I’m sure that will change though once SRK has completed its work later in the year.

Fair play to him, he’s sweeping all the float whilst the share price is rock bottom.

A lack of news does make you doubt your investment, but you just have to remind yourself of the latest news release, and understand nothing further has changed (good or bad) until it’s announced otherwise.

In comparison i’m in KAV and they are throwing out updates every single week and commenting on Twitter every day. It definitely builds your confidence up in the company, compared to a company that is in a period of silence.

The encouraging thing is, the 3nr holes that were drilled 18 months ago showed:

“elevated copper and nickel values against what might be expected in a non-mineralised gabbro”

KAV have already proven that there is Cu and Ni in the area. It even found them in an area you wouldn’t expect to find much (if any) of them. The fact that it now has these levels of conductive readings, coming from an area they anticipate to find mineralisation, is very encouraging indeed.

You can see why Ben and the team are excited by the drilling commencing.

The issue with the communication side of things is there isn’t actually anything to communicate until a deal is finalised. It was announced on 22nd Feb “Constructive discussions ongoing with Southern Gold seeking a "win-win" for both companies”. SAU have said the same a number of times, whilst also confirming it will likely becoming a significant shareholder in BMV. Until that process is complete/fallen through, there’s nothing to be announced that may have a material effect on the share price. JMK confirmed the same in an email to me a few weeks back.

I’m going through the same lack of communications with EUA at the moment, with its sale. Very few updates and little information provided. It announced it has received a few offers and is concentrating on one in specific, but no one has any idea what the value of that deal may be.

Unfortunately, as with every company that has provided me with a substantial return, it a just a matter of sitting tight and waiting. The frustrating part is not knowing how long you’re going to be waiting.

The way I look at things with BMV is I invested for BMV holding 50% of the mines originally. If it gets SAU’s 50% too that’s a bonus, if not I’m still in my original position. The main thing though is the financing. Having secured non-dilutive funding, based on the spot price of gold and already drawing down three tranches is very big news for any company. It means the chances of not getting into production are very slim.

Don’t get miner mixed-up with explorer. There would never be an intention to an intention to bring in a CEO from a mining background at this stage. A Geologist, yes potentially, but considering KAV are at the tipping point of a huge PR campaign if it gets positive drill results, you want someone with ‘the gift of the fab’. KAV already has a number of Geologists onboard already, their expertise is locating the resources, not selling the company.

Since Ben has been on the board the share price has risen significantly and with positive results, that will likely continue.

Whilst the board have done an outstanding job to date, you have to applaud Ben’s drive and determination. As Ben regularly does a lot of the interviews and is now pretty much the face of Kavango, it makes sense for him to be the CEO.

£1 does seem a lot, but that’s an mcap of less than £400m.

Using GGP and EUA as benchmarks, GGP flew passed £1b on news of its JV with Newcrest, whilst EUA hit £1b shortly before Xmas when it was anticipated it’s sale was near complete.

There’s obviously still risk here, but if drilling produces a commercially viable deposit anywhere near what many of us have in mind, KAV too could have an mcap pushing towards £1b in the not too distant future.

Whilst I wouldn’t recommend to anyone having KAV as 100% of their portfolio, as we still need a positive set of drill results. It’s surely got to be worth a small punt, considering the potential returns if it does hit “the big one!”.

Definitely, if projects are just getting into production and a Director is still buying, it usually means they believe there is more to come.

I particularly like that in nearly every interview Pierpaolo keeps referring to the oil & gas project is just small stepping stone and that they are looking at other opportunities. It makes you wonder just how far they are going to take the oil and gas side of things.

You have to love that KAV isn’t a one trick pony. It’s throwing positive news out left, right & centre.

If only one of its projects comes to fruition, there’s plenty of upside potential to it’s current mcap.

You’re still a tad light on production. The following is from last years annual report:

“MONCHETUNDRA

A fully funded development project; with 15moz palladium dominated PGM resource, it is one of the largest assets globally not owned by a PGM major.

Ownership: 80%

Mine type: Open pit.

Licensing: Mining license to 2038. Financed via Sinosteel EPCF.

Product/Offtake: PGM and base metals concentrate (Palladium dominant, Platinum, Gold, Nickel and Copper).

Mine life: >20 years

Target production: 1,000koz at full capacity

Exploration upside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences.”

It’s the “Target production: 1,000koz” that has me surprised this has gone back to 20p. Considering each of the commodities MT will provide are all soaring, 1,000koz will bring about an EBITA significantly higher than our current mcap. As a general rule of thumb I usually work off a companies value in and around the region of 3x the EBITA (for a profitable company that is). Granted MT isn’t producing yet and any buyer will have a substantial outlay in bringing it to production, but with prices at their current levels, this will surely attract a significant figure.

Glencore already has a holding in G11, so has exposure to Stonepark anyway. To be fair, the Stonepark results have been better than what Glencore has been getting at Pallas Green, hence why it took a position in G11.

The problem is that Stonepark still requires a lot of further drilling to make it commercially viable. They are looking for a tier 1 deposit though, so it’s in ARK’s interest to just sit tight for a few years and let it’s value increase.

I don’t know about GGP, as that has an mcap of over $1b.

However, considering ARK has a number of projects under its belt, a stake in potentially a tier 1 deposit at Stonepark, proven gold at Mine River and a BOD that has many years experience in the mining sector, its mcap should surely be higher than £3m.

Dilution is the main concern though due to the low share price and current low number of shares in issue. If dilution can be kept to a minimum, this is one that appears to have very good upside potential