Member Info for mole_man99

Although the rate is high at 8.3% and instantly upset futures, the rate of inflation did fall in April compared to March. March may yet turn out to be the peak. There is some hope.

Mind you, Just put £70 of diesel in the car and it’s only half full. Crumbs.

Nobody can time the market Rob. We may well have a massive cathartic fall from here, or just bobble along for a few months around this level. It's unlikely to be up, but nobody really knows. Half way through the pandemic crash I did actually sell up. It fell further and I felt chuffed with myself. Started buying back in some favourites around the bottom (lucky guess), but by the time I had got fully invested again, my averages were not far off what I sold for in the first place. It wasn't worth the bother in the end. Just rolling out of low conviction stocks into my highest conviction at lower prices would of been a better strategy.

If you have a 5 year horizon, sit tight and maybe look at ways you can raise some cash to start putting in when the market obviously bottoms and turns.

Just make sure you are in solid well managed companies with a future.

If it's not too late, the guess is 115p.

I think it's time to generally just abandon hope on the broad market for this year. It will just continue downward while the stimulus damage is unwound and virtually all stocks will trend down with it.

Looking forwards, position yourselves in good companies that will survive (good cashflow, low/no debt, future proofed demand), accumulate as you get new cash and wait for the recovery.

I see a red door and I want it painted black

No thanks, says a man who has held since 1992 and made an annualised 10% with divs, despite the financial crisis. Do buy more if it drops. Thank me later.

All to play for on the Firday close. USA going into meltdown. If VOD's fall there translates to a 4% fall in UK, the evil mole-man will strike again.
Not giving me any satisfaction now by the way. Getting a bit bored with markets having no sense for a future beyond next tuesday.

Yes

Hello all.
You can download VOD 2021 report from investor relations for the balance sheet.

I did include the cash of €5bn at the time. Assumed that all other assets would be bought up in the sale deals.

For the debt remaining to be paid off of €85bn, add together long term debt, short term debt and trade and payables. That’s debt you owe your suppliers. The purchaser won’t want it or will want to knock down the price if you want to pass it on.

I ignored all the other liabilities, but you may not be able to pass those on so the final figure would be lower. Also ignored any tax consequences in the sale which will further erode the final sum.

In conclusion, investors won’t do well from a break up unless purchasers overpay by double, which could happen in a very bullish market. Not today then.

Compound annual return inc divs last 8 years is 13.4% per annum which is solid. Period includes several property off periods and the pandemic crash. IT's what you want from a property stock. Well managed and just wait for the values to come back.

Weird big drop today though.

Sure Dan. I make the assumption that in this scenario the parts of the business are sold for £100bn. That is assets/staff that make that part work, brands that go with it etc etc. The cash is not sold, why buy cash €1 for €1. This gives a pot of €125bn at today's ex rate.
When the parts were sold, the debt was not sold with it. You therefore have to pay off the actual debt, not the net debt. Total actual debt is €85.8bn (long term plus short term plus trade and payables). Leaves €39.2bn or £32.9bn. Divide by shares outstanding actually gets £1.16 a share. I did not account for trade and payables first time round, but think it likely the buyer of a part will not buy the trade debts. If they do they'll pay less.

It's just an exercise and 10 analysts will give you 10 different answers, but I think you'll find they'll be around the current share price was my point, not some value 100% higher. For a sale of the parts that is.

A takeover would be different, but I think any buyer would conclude with all that debt, it's fully priced already.

Be an interesting week. Was down 1.5% in usa at one point, then up 2.26% after hours. Markets can't quite decide what to do at the moment.

So they sell the parts for 100bn, add in the cash, repay the loans, divi up the remainder amongst shares outstanding and it comes to 124p a share. Funny that...

1.18 next Friday

He certainly hasn’t come up with the one thing investors want hear now. A credible plan to pay down some debt. Seems to be suggesting more debt to buy more assets is the answer. I don’t agree with that tactic for sure.

The blinder US market was having was a head fake. Amazon then came out with earnings and said it's all gone wrong. Apple had a great qtr, then promptly fell. Investors have no apetite for risk.
And now we are in to the sell in May and go away debate period.

Sentiment today was never going to be great following the drubbing investors gave the us markets yesterday. First of the big earnings are in and they weren’t too bad suggesting economies have not gone to the dogs yet. All eyes on Apple Thursday.
It does mean a lot of things are showing very reasonable prices now. Makes the risk of holding vod for a div less attractive.

It was a close call with UK market meandering all week and USA freaking out. What sentiment for next week? I'm flippin the coin and going for down again, but not much. 125p.

Been a grinding week so VOD coming to me thanks to the market mood. 'Fraid I shall be predicting more glumness for next week. Just too much trouble for the world to work through right now, financial and otherwise.

Don't worry. 2023 is nearly here.

Even more impressive when you consider they laid out billions building factories and still made a great profit.

Great chart on page 8 of the presentation. Big spike in orders the day after superbowl. They didn't advertise. Competitors spent millions advertising EV's, and the public went off and bought a Tesla. Beast of a company.

ADVFN went up 49% today. Any connection to Mikey posting?