Member Info for mole_man99

Free cash flow is the real one, adjusted is when you put lots of stuff back in to pretend you're doing better. Bit like EBITDA.

Oh mole. You're encourageable.

Good weekend of sun all.

I am a hopeless non achiever so never listen to me. Fitch however just agreed that the road ahead for telecoms is tough, and I think that debt will not help, is my point.

Fitch Ratings-London-06 July 2022: High inflation and lower economic growth will have a gradual and delayed impact on the European telecom sector’s ability to increase profitability, Fitch Ratings says. We foresee no significant degradation in pricing and cost structures in 2022, but we expect pressures to build up and temper growth and margin improvements in 2023-2024.

Stay invested in low/no debt companies with pricing power, but don’t listen to me. Non achieving idiot.

Oil 10% down now. Be good for the markets if this decline sticks. It will show up as rapidly declining inflation rate. No need to raise interest rates so aggresively.
Here's hoping, unless you own BP that is.

It certainly isn’t helping with imported inflation. Mind you oil has just fallen 5% in a short span.

Cheap depends on timeframe in this market. If you have confidence in your target companies product/service And management and can extrapolate out some figures at least 5 years, maybe 10, then you will find many companies with a good chance to return more than 15% compounded in the 5 to 10 year period, which is a great return.
You have to find your own favourites though. As the Tesla discussion proves, pointing out an opportunity only brings out all the reasons it will fail.

Teslas don’t qualify for most subsidies as they have sold too many cars. Excluding credits their profits are still industry leading by a wide margin.
Anyway less Tesla talk now. The point is look into the facts yourself and don’t get them from the media.

I am buying a chunk at these prices. No need to wait for disaster induced BofA price. Even if it takes London to 2030 to recover from pandemic and office prices to return to prepay levels, WKP could see asset value of £15, and that would be a near 15% pa compounded return NOT including dividends.
If BofA had a brain they would be saying it is the buy of the century.

Enjoy those VOD divs. Your company is paying out 2bn euro in cash then having to try to raise 2bn euro debt in a rising rate environment to keep up with the competition in main market Germany. Can you see the problem with the strategy?
I’ll stick with the company investing back into the worlds most productive factories without needing any debt.
Don’t miss a good market created buy in point. Maybe wait till after Q2 earnings end of July though. Shanghai has been shut most of the quarter. My cash is ready.

It is all looking very fragile up to the Autumn as markets fear full on recession. I too am holding back the cash I have. Not selling stuff, but have paused topping up for a while.

Very impressed at VOD's strange safety status.

BT staff voting to strike. Maybe some sort of benefit for VOD, until VOD workers strike.

BofA target price of 450 suggests a 50% write down of London property.
Strange how those half price properties never seem to get to market so we can buy them.

Vodafone Germany seeks EUR 2 bln from investors to fund fibre JV - report

Vodafone hopes to agree a partnership to finance its fibre expansion in Germany before the summer, according to an excerpt from an article on Handelsblatt's website. The newspaper cited sources close to the telecoms and finance sectors. It said Vodafone aims to set up a joint venture tor its German expansion and to obtain approximately EUR 2 billion in funding from investors.

Interested parties are due to make non-binding commitments this week, Handelsblatt said on 23 June, and binding ones are expected in six weeks, with a deal set to be announced by the end of August at the latest.

Handelsblatt said this seems to be an attempt by Vodafone to catch up with rivals Telefonica and Deutsche Telekom, which have already established similar projects in Germany.

Absolutely not. You mis understand my motives here. Just highlighting the difficulties ahead for investors to make meaningful long term gains. See my next post.

You can leave me in at 115p on auto repeat. This broken clock will be right eventually.

Short term is grim but it’s clouding a perfectly bright future. Don’t let mainstream media get inside your head. They only report on what happened yesterday.
The doom is creating buying opportunities.

Challenge accepted, and I am betting my pension on it.
Really though, don’t miss an opportunity through blind hate. Look into AI and where the world is heading and how it will be next continued leap up in global gdp. Then look for a company that is solving AGI for transportation and putting it in sustainably powered vehicles. It’s a multi trillion addressable market and there is a clear leader.

That said, I won’t clutter up the VOD board any more with alternatives, unless I see mis-information to correct. I just can’t help myself.

Happy returns all, eventually.

Indeed Dan see you in 2030. There is a high probability too of more calamity stateside and lots of egg on the mole's face as stocks there crash properly and TSLA with it, but don't let that put you off a great buying opportunity in great companies.
VOD's weird safety status preventing the SP declining will be part of the reason it underperforms as economies improve to the end of the decade.
Meanwhile Vantage falls daily and is down 17%.
VOD's dollar debt has also increased significantly in € and £ terms as exchange rates collapse. They have about $25bn denominated in USD.
Beware safe stocks.

Yes tsla is down from when mentioned at some point. Did start mentioning it when it was around $450, so up. All about timing. And now is not the time to be looking at the current value of a holding and being pleased not to be losing too much today. The seeds of fantastic gains over the next decade are sown today. I am sure by 2030 tsla and many other interesting well run companies will be showing large gains over today’s price. VOD however will of found a way to not increase shareholder value and the sp will reflect the divs it had to pay out. Meanwhile €60+Bn of actual debt will still be a lot, inflation or not.
Let’s take stock in 2030. Which was better to hold from June 2022? VOD or TSLA.
PS, TSLA make so much cash they will need to start paying a div soon, and no debt.

I would suggest caution on believing point 5. Inflation will be inflating VOD's costs, but their product price will not keep up, pressuring margins. You can see the competition for contracts coming with bigger and bigger GB data deals for the same monthly price. Deflation in telelcoms will be the actual problem.
VOD's debt will remain just as big and problematic in an inflationary recessionary environment.

Difficult times ahead for business. Side with low/no debt companies with positive FCF.

Three Amigos a spelling corrector and the ever lurking mole keeping reality in check.

End of the world is on Tuesday Dan. Having difficulty pinpointing which one though.
Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan has Wall Street media all worked up over a coming economic hurricane. We are approaching peak fear, needed to properly bottom and start the next bull run. Not quite there yet so volatile weeks/months ahead.