Member Info for mogwhy

I see Marcus Garvie has increased his shareholding from 3.7% to 4.2% according to the new website.
Shouldn't we have seen a TR1 as he went through the 4% threshold ?
Or have I missed it.

http://tinyurl.com/y9rddo6v

Do you lot realise that Roy gets paid every time you answer him ?

My updated model with current APT price and exchange rate gives a monthly EBITDA of £2.4m at an annual production rate of 270,000 and production costs of $94/mtu.
Yum, yum.

Ok, that's good to know. I'd assumed a 5% offtake discount.
So we get about 80% of the market APT price then.

88.5% APT was approx $278/mtu in China yesterday.
We don't know our offtake terms, but I'm assuming a 25% total discount for our concentrate.
The only thing we do know about the offtake agreement is that the price floats with the market.

jamesroo - vfrb's won't be replacing lithium for electric cars any time soon.
They are far too big and don't have the energy density of Li-ion.
The degradation of lithium batterys suit the manufacturers as they need to be periodically replaced.

gfd - as far as grid storage is concerned, it looks as though vanadium redox flow batteries will be the preferred technology. There are obvious advantages over lithium if you dyor.
The Chinese are leading the charge on this by building huge storage capabilities such as the 200MW one at Dalian.

In early September we had 8 consecutive trading days without a 3m sell.
So a way to go yet until we know for sure.

I can sell up to 5m at 0.414 so it's probably a buy.
I think the 6m yesterday was also a buy.

K3VMC - I put forward a theory a few weeks ago that the 3m sells were being used to hold the price whilst a leveraged position was built up. If the Hansource shares have been lent out for this purpose then they will have to be bought back at some stage.
This could either be done by buying on the open market, which seems unlikely as more money would be needed, or by selling some or all of the leveraged position when it's in a good profit.
Either way we'll see a huge uplift in the share price to compensate for the last 3 months if I'm right.

OMR - the quantity that appeared on DMA was 315,333,333
The difference between that and the full Hansource holding of 333,333,333 is exactly 18,000,000
Those numbers can't be a coincidence.
What we don't know is if any or none were sold.
Just because we haven't had a TR1 doesn't mean that there hasn't been a change.

OMR - control of the Hansource shares appear to have moved to a broker or market maker on 23 May as it was on this day that they appeared briefly on a DMA platform for sale.

204m or 3.7%

StukeyBlue - BlackRock don't currently own any WRES shares.
They have warrants.

safety - did the $65 cost per mtu include the tin credit ?

dreamy - I just listened to that interview again and MM quoted 2,500tpa in 2019.
That gives an EBITDA of about $19m at current APT prices.

dreamy - my model gives EBITDA of $29m at an APT price of $280 for 250,000 mtu production

jaf - my bad, I'm looking at the TPI May report, not the WRES May presentation.

jaf - on fig 21 it shows 2019 EBITDA at just over $20m