Member Info for Mirasol

"yes while the remodelling is completed, which, contrary to your claim is said to be improved and with more production."

Simon - the model is a mathematical construct running on a computer. It cannot, by itself , increase production. ANGS have to DO something (see BubblePoints enthusiasm for velocity strings for example) to get production up. If they do nothing production will continue to behave as it has done recently - decline.

The model may show that the amount of oil available to be recovered is still close to their CPR estimates - but it will take a lot longer to get it out. The long-term question, as BP always notes, is when does your OPEX become so high that you can't make a profit?

The new compressor is one way they are trying to recover the situation - if it works it should push production back towards the CPR estimates - but it comes at a cost.

"If I’m correct your workings image on the old CPR model and the company did make a statement that they have an improved field modelling that was in plan? Is that the case in your understanding?"

I am looking at the TWO previous CPR's 2020 and 2023.

The company may have said they are working on a new reservoir model - one would certainly expect that given the old one is clearly far too optimistic.

However, it's not the same as a CPR , which is carried out by outside experts (and can still be wrong as we've seen).

As the Company never gives routine forward guidance on flows it's hard to tell if their latest model is matching actual production or not. A new model doesn't improve flows by itself - you need to spend money on interventions, new wells, etc etc to change the actual conditions of production. Hopefully a new model would steer them to the right decisions but ANGS history not encouraging in that regard.

TrollHunter2 Posts: 1,248 Price: 0.165 No Opinion 15/11/20

RE: Its UKOG's time......Sun 18:26

Agreed this is going to move very fast and very far upward from this oversold position back to asset value on news of this weeks events and next..... double up swing now and people positioning themselves for it began on Thursday and Friday last week.

Expect it to continue strongly through this week.

GLA

I don't like being pedantic but a couple of points

Firstly it's running at circa 60% of CPR P90 values - not 60% below

Secondly it's not the "worst case" - it's a statistical derived number - the experts reckoned there was a 90% chance of reaching those numbers. The worst case is zero

"Concluding discussion

Decline and depletion rates are important to understand and give significant depth to the peak

oil debate. However, it is essential to understand that these two concepts are fundamentally

different. Decline rates can be measured directly from production data, while depletion rates

depend upon estimates of recoverable resources. Changes in recoverability will affect depletion

levels and depletion rates, while decline rates are unaffected. Different data sources and resource

estimates done at different times are likely to give diverging results"

To be fair BP is talking about Pressure Depletion - which is an important driver as to how you manage the reservoir.

Most other people are talking about Production depletion - which is the most important thing for non-technical investors. They are not the same.

Wikipedia :- Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area

Transactions of the Royal Society

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Mikael Höök , Simon Davidsson , Sheshti Johansson and Xu Tang

Published:13 January 2014 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0448

is a good source

Regretfully actual monthly production is approx 60% of the forecast P90 figure in the CPR's

We really need a new one

13-Mar-25 0.1251

14-Mar-25 0.1193

15-Mar-25 0.1242

16-Mar-25 0.1204

17-Mar-25 0.1191

18-Mar-25 0.1205

19-Mar-25 0.1199

20-Mar-25 0.1178

21-Mar-25 0.1215

Drill or Drop is unashamedly green - always has been. Ruth Hayhurts makes no bones about it. As a professional journalist she does publish both sides of teh argument but she makes sure that the worst possible slant is out in any industry opinions or actions.

She's no different from the National Press - buy a copy of every major newspaper on day and look at where they place articles on the same story and the headlines and comments they use. You expect them to be biased - the Telegraph, the Murdock press, FT, Express, Mail, Morning Star, Scotsman, Mirror - all appallingly biased.

One issue is that DoD is the only news outlet that actually covers onshore UK - even the NSTA ignore it

Which tells you all you need to know about the stock - they prefer a one way bet for themselves and the rest of us to invest

and I don't remember anyone here taking up those options recently either...........................

Our old friends Tymers & TH2 have forgotten the first rule of modern communications - once you post something its there forever - especially if people save your posts.

So there are literally hundreds of their posts going back years everyone of which is designed to sucker people into these dreadful investments. Every time they post now we can put up a dozen.

And, after all, didn't Tymers ask us "to quote me" - we shall.......................

11. I O.W confirmed as huge

Tymers Posts: 5,110 Price: 0.30 Strong Buy 16/04/21

RE: ACCOUNTS PUBLISHEDToday 17:29

Very few companies during this pandemic can publish results any where near well done SS and team . Another great day for investors

It's been over 4 years since the CEO bought any shares - that's a pretty damning fact in any small investors yes - or it should be............................

" 3000 bopd and you can quote me on that"

Sometimes you 've got to laugh out loud

Tymers - such a source of great advice...................

Tymers 21/01/20

Stick. Well done and you have been listening . Today's so is for most investors golden ticket beyond the 50 percent traders this has 25p written all over it for 2020.glh

Tymers Posts: 2,941 Price: 0.21 Strong Buy 24/05/20

RE: Sweep UpdateToday 19:39

The estimates are very conservative even the top end. Ukog will demonstrate soon enough but cumulative will be nearer 3000 bopd and you can quote me on that. Ukog United

53. | Tymers | 2018-11-27 13:55:45 | UKOG | santamria you are a blatant liar full stop now do your research look at the fact over 2 million litres on test, over 70 tankers to date, over 1 million per well per annum for decades to come and i will only repeat these words once to you so listen carefullynational significanceglh

"related news to shear with those genuinely invested, and SANDO of course if he has not seen it yet"

the two aren't the same thing - the Directors only invested here when a gun was held to their heads.

UKOG price prediction 31/12/2019 (23.59pm)Today 09:52

Entry Now Closed Good Luck On Your Predictions Entries !!!)

Lonely_Shooter: 33p

TrollHunter2: 20.7p

06-Mar-25 0.1231

07-Mar-25 0.1219

08-Mar-25 0.1186

09-Mar-25 0.1116

10-Mar-25 0.1007

11-Mar-25 0.1111

12-Mar-25 0.1256

13-Mar-25 0.1251

14-Mar-25 0.1193

15-Mar-25 0.1242

Production sweep - backwoodsman wins with 400 bopd 30 Jun 2020 10:57

Poster HH1 HH2z Total

Tymers 3000

Scallywag3 620 820 1440

Sting69 560 650 1210

Ibug 400 500 900