Member Info for Mirasol

Quite a few people are saying SS should exercise his options or buy stock

I suspect that he and the other Directors can't as the well test is ongoing and they are therefore privy to inside information. In fact looking back its hard to see a time in the last 3 years when UKOG hasn't been active and Directors etc will have been unable to deal.

It's the same with people who try and call or email them asking for an update - you can't tell one person anything - you have to tell everyone at the same time using the RNS system I believe

Lets see what they achieve. I wouldn't bet either way right now as we don't have the information and we probably wouldn't understand it if we did. They may be able to fix the issues or may not or may only come up with a partial fix. Until that is public it's all a punt and a place for mad money only.............

I'm still surprised that JT is still involved - after all he was in charge of Ops when they got into this mess.

Indeed the gas will have to be handled although a lot depends on how much there is - probably not enough for a pipeline here and GTW is an option but nothing has been done re planning or contracts AFAIK

!0 horizontal wells ? Where are they going to be drilled? Not at HH - they're looking at a lot less than at in the Planning . Another site? possible but several years down the road and will cost quite a lot of cash = more dilution??

As for majors - there isn't a single one involved in onshore UK exploration - Total pulled out of the Midlands shale gas play a few years back. Why mess around in Surrey when you can find multiple Tcf of gas for roughly the same management effort offshore East Africa? Or hundreds of millions of barrels (recoverable) off Guyana?? - no swampies there, no Councillors, no EA either...............

You don't suddenly decide to build a new viewing platform unless you are pretty sure that it will be needed for the next 12 months ++ - the old one was about 9 months old and was still in use I believe - has to be a vote of confidence

But forget about a major ever buying in to Onshore UK - who wants all those swampies chaining themselves to their petrol pumps? and the rates are far too low - 3000 bopd max from HH - you buy into Hurricane and you get a share of 20,000 bopd. Remember someone like BP needs 4.1 MILLION bopd

If you could find another Wytch Farm they might be interested but the rest is too small, too complicated and too unsure - as well as toxic from a PR view

1. Purchase with the £3.5m? - hopefully!
2. planning submitted for Dunsfold? Hopefully!!
3. Village consultation for Arreton? Certain
4 CPR for Portland - I don't think they can do a CPR until they finish the test - and then it will take at least 8 weeks.....

In May
5 Rig HH2 &HH1z - probable - tho maybe actual delivery delayed
6 Electric cable - impossible - no planning permission yet and unlikely until late summer at the earliest
7 .planning passed for HH3-6 - late summer at the earliest
8 construction commences for the tanker filling station and gas to wire - as above - can't lift a finger without both PP and OGA approval (and that requires PP as a condition)
9 large scale production - probably Q1 2020

Alan

Do you have any information on how much oil they actually produced in the tests? I see RATE numbers but they may only have been a few minutes flush production before the water came in........

And I've seen people struggle with water in the past - Avington (another 100's of million bbls IN PLACE that was grossly over sold) and Egdon's Dorset well way back at Waddock Cross - both cost me a small fortune.................

bnzltn may be bitter but tell me where he is wrong in his list...............

Can we get real on any acquisition? £3 million won't buy you a spanner offshore - a well costs upwards of £ 20 million and if you buy in you pay a carry or a premium. Hurricane are looking at over 20,000 bopd - a hundred times the current production rate at Horse Hill so you can expect to pay one hundred times MORE than Horse Hill is worth.

Based on the 2018/19 mopping up exercise on Solo etc Horse Hill is selling at approx. £ 300,000 per percentage interest point (which seems high to me). The three million raise won't even buy the Tellurian 35% stake.

I see two options - firstly UKOG don't seem to like partners - or at least some of their partners - so maybe they're going to buy out smaller stakes in Holmwood - which they've just taken over, or clean up some other licences. DOR are clearly looking for cash still and are really exiting the UK long term

Secondly there it may be Tellurian at Horse Hill - I haven't seen a single peep from them saying how wonderful it is and how they are behind the project - their website only talks about their vast ambitions as an LNG player in the US
There is no mention of Horse Hill in their latest Annual Report. Maybe they don't want to spend any cash on it at all??

They have a carry through exploration I believe - maybe UKOG will extend this to first production? £ 3 million would cover the 35% of any development cost with maybe the costs recovered in the future from Tellurian's share of production ???

Thanks Alan - that is very clear.

Alan

I think somewhere you (or someone else technical) mentioned that a horizontal well should (rule of thumb obviously) produce at three times the rate of a vertical well bore through the same rocks?

Presume it is a function of the amount of rock open to the well??

I think they've always targeted late April to start but no doubt there will be various odd permissions outstanding

Plus the chosen rig (when it is chosen) may be working elsewhere so they have to wait for that to finish - I don't think they grow on trees in the UK

I think the regular watchers said that Wednesday is normally a regular for the suits - both at Broadford Bridge and here

Anything else could be the Council , the OGA, the planners, the EA, the HSE, the neighbors or even the guys bidding on the rig contract coming to see what the site looks like

Just exactly how much oil flowed to surface at Brockham/balcombe?

I don't see any pictures of any tankers at the time

Two very different things

Angus are using a small rig to workover (ie try and fix) their problems at both Brockham and Balcombe - this just means entering the hole that is already there

UKOG/HHDL are drilling completely new wells from the same site as Horse Hill and therefore require a much bigger and more expensive rig

As previously discussed we are unlikely to see a CPR until they get Government approval to produce long term - maybe late summer is my guess

The test will continue until then or they start drilling new wells

No engineer can have ever enough data before putting pen to paper - especially on a public document

Someone once told me that CPR's are really disliked in the business - they cost a lot of money, they take up days/weeks of people's time and no-one is ever satisfied with the resulting document.

I really doubt any "expert" will put their necks on the line with a meaningful CPR until the testing is complete - which is about the time the new drilling starts late Spring

They'd look really stupid if the last few days of the test showed something new.

Looking at the new Board members I can't see ANY onshore UK experience worth a damn. They're almost all serious international players.

That being so I think we should expect them to be looking to move Angus into the international arena - maybe N Africa/Mid East/the 'Stans long term.

They have to deal the cards they currently have so will try and prove value at Brockham & Balcombe and then get shot of them to either IGas or UKOG and move to somewhere without NIMBY's, the EA, OGA, HSE, S England council planning departments and the swampies

I suspect Angus will look a lot different in 2 years time.

Zoom

I think you'll find they are NOT buying a rig - they are renting one

AFIK no oil company owns a drilling rig - too much money tied up and "non-core"

Do they reinject the water at Lidsey or does it have to be trucked away? makes a big difference in the cash flow.