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So there IS a potential issue with "communication with the fracture network" and there is the critical weasel word
WETHER commercial production can be achieved

Plus the partners are clearly not 100% satisfied

this sounds like Broadford Bridge to me.............. some unexpected damage in the bore

Still they're taking it one step at a time but in my mind this is now even riskier than it was before. Quite how they know there is a problem is not clear - maybe they compared the three wells (Brockham, Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill ) and thought "woops!"

JS490

"Quite frankly, they've already spent MUCH longer on this Portland test than I thought they would. The Kimmeridge is where the potential 'National Significance' comes in. So please, ...get going on it already."

I think the problem is that the Kimmeridge, being totally new, is not understood - see the last CPR page 104:-

"It should be noted that the current level of knowledge of the Kimmeridge play, the paucity of modern well data and core, together with the dependence on input data from legacy wells means that there is still a significant degree of uncertainty in many of the key factors which control calculations of OIP in the Kimmeridge section"

The Portland is relatively straightforward and can be monetized much faster than the Kimmeridge - it's also not bad for onshore UK and would make UKOG 2nd or 3rd largest UK Onshore producer.

yes the Kimm is the big prize but it's a ways away IMHO - the Portland should pay the bills without the need for further dilution (I hope!)

"I fully believe after SS visit to No 10 to explain what we have, he was told to hold back and for doing that once BREXIT was sorted in return he would be fast tracked all applications for future drilling"

When did this visit take place? Pictures?? sources???

And even if he did see the PM she's now a dead duck so there goes the promises.........

Given the state of the UK drilling programme I'm sure BDF will be only too happy to get a contract for 3 more bores - but they'll want them AFTER they demob from West Newton - possibly playing a game on price/availability to avoid the Marriott rig being dragged out of the shed and thus halving the market for 2019/2020

Joey

Since you can write I presume you can read

there will be no rig at Horse Hill this week and we'll send up hosanna's if it turns up this month - read the last months worth of posts on the subject

Almost all drilling operations run late - that's why we should all take any RNS that is a forecast of when a well will finish as a fairy tale - or perhaps an "aspiration". Every CEO wants a positive spin and they always chose the best LOOKING rather than the most realistic option when it comes to drilling performance

I understand that W Newton was going to be 8 weeks (minimum) from start - which was 25th April? But if they are running late which I suspect (delivery of drill pipe last week suggests a ways to go yet..)

Rig Contract? God knows - could be they're holding out for a better price, maybe they don't want to inflame the swampies or possibly Tellurian are hanging fire.... I keep thinking the last raise might have been to take out /reduce either the Tellurian interest or the Alba interest.

Can't see it turning up before end July I'm afraid..........

RXdav

yes good idea to tin track any complaint

the Eye is far more likely to run a piece "Small shareholders complain to FSA" than act on a "personal" complaint - for a start it helps protect then if anyone comes after them as it's a FACT

No reason at all - in fact the idea seems to have been to drill a sidetrack (-1z) to the current (-1) well, then the new (-2) well, then the -2z sidetrack.

I think they can do limited testing at any time but the big issue maybe that they have to shut-in the current -1 production flow to test the other, new , bores.. = loss on income plus a (small) risk you can't get it restarted when you re-open it .

They're probably optimizing drilling, completion , testing and production schedules all the time . The sequence is easy to change so don't get hung up if they say one thing then do another..

The rig hasn't arrived earlier for several reasons - firstly they didn't contract it before W Newton did and got int front of them, secondly that's going to at W Newton for circa 80- 90 days - seems to be slower drilling than expected & thirdly there seems to be something else that is stopping them signing a rig contract - maybe a partner issue?

If you want to get to the bottom of this JTP stuff etc don't go to the FSA or AIm they're all mates in this and take years

Go to Private Eye & Alistair Osborn at The Times with your dossier..... they let a bit of light into some dark corners overnight

and better still the a million more people hear about anything shady - that REALLY brings pressure on a BoD & the likes of George Lucan - who has, after all, a place in Society........

Problem is they don't address the risks

Corbyn & the Greens
No Planning permission or a long drawn out Enquiry and legal battles
One field
One basin

Yanis

"The share price of a company includes future anticipation and you know that. "

I think we all agree on that - the problem is that since 16p the anticipation has changed from possible success to possible failure .

Vonk & Tidswell have screwed things up so often and so badly no-one believes a word the BoD said TBH.

Unfortunately Lucan, who looks a reasonable bloke to me, started off well and then raised all the old fears with the current confusion about what they are actually doing..

It's a poor show and that's why there is NO positive expectation priced in right now

It hasn't left and it's not leaving soon

Eyes there report delivery of more drill pipe to site so they are nowhere near finished

As I've said - end of July at Horse Hill at the earliest

Does anyone have a copy of the Joint Operating Agreement for Brockham?

that would list the approval levels required for various activities - if it was (say) 75% and ANG only have 65% then it might indicate someone is else is the log-jam......

as a LTI I can't believe that there is something horrible in the cupboard at Brockham. Lucan looks like a reasonably clever guy and I'm sure he crawled all over Brockham before taking the job.

On the other hand we have had this mysterious "consultation" and "interpretation" and lack of recent news which is always a worry on AIM

Having always had this share in the "mad Money" folder I'm so far down I'm holding on as the odds are still slightly better than winning the Lottery tomorrow night ... but I am concerned

Lenigas needs the money for his latest scheme in Australia - he's been running down his UK interests over the last couple of years

There is only one active oil & gas rig onshore the UK right now - the BDF28 at West Newton

There has been chat that this has just set casing and so they still have several weeks to go before the rig is free.

I 'd be very surprised to see it at Horse Hill before end July - be nice to know there was a contract in place tho'

Pointing the finger at Sanderson maybe barking up the wrong tree - he's never said he was a finance guy.

The willingness to use dilution rather than debt has to be the FD's idea - and the other BoD NED who is a finance guy as well.

Trouble is every time some optimist buys someone is willing to sell - which tells me something - quite a lot of people seems happy to get out at the current price rather than wait for the news and there aren't anywhere near enough buyers to raise the price

The longer we wait for news the more worrying this gets

Alan

Interesting post - I seem to remember that water disposal is a major issue for a lot of small fields - Avington for example

"Some people don't see an end to the testing/exploration/massive expense."

I hate to break the news to to you but it will never stop.

this is a small oil company run by explorationists - if they make money the first thing they do is to go onto the next BIG IDEA. Look back at the past - Rockhopper farmed their Falklands interest to Premier and promptly sank all the money into Italy - not a bean for the shareholders. Cairn found a zillion barrels of oil in India and promptly went out and blew most of it offshore Greenland. History is packed with similar stories

Energy stocks, including eh very big guys, have a relatively poor rate of return - projects overrun, are late or just fail but hey ho! It's on to the next one. and if they do make a fortune they use it to buy someone else out.

TBH that is the Holy Grail of oil investing - being in a company that someone else buys because it's got a good position.

You have to realize that people who found these companies are NOT bean counters - they're people with a vision.....