Member Info for Mirasol

Come on guys - cool it ...........

No need for anyone to get upset or on their high horse about anything

We ALL need to keep it civilised

"As shareholders we need to send a strong message to the BOD. Stop the land grabs and dilution and concentrate on developing what we have at a slower pace "

yes but at the AGM a month ago the BOD got all there proposals through without any problem. That suggests to me that the VAST majority of the shareholders back the BOD and the complaints about dilution come from people who own a very small part of the Sharebase.

If it was such a concern where were the resolutions stopping further dilution?

I've been invested here for 5 years and the asset value has gone UP significantly. The company has proceeded fairly systematically forward. Sure we'd all like the price to be higher and things to happen faster but for an AIM energy company they aren't doing badly. And yes, I expect further dilution - it's that or debt until they get to about 500 bopd

Penguin

You are probably right - I think it was a suggestion on here or somewhere else that as to why the flow was not optimized - skin might explain it ......... it's a very common issue I understand

As you say there looks to be some serious work was done to come up with the 362 barrel figure - very precise

I guess the question of partnership approvals is something buried in the Joint Operating Agreement - and probably the Carry Agreement with Tellurian. They're a seriously bigger outfit (even if UK Onshore is a bit non-core - see their website - these days) I can't see them causing problems - after all they'll get a much better price for Horse Hill when it 's on production than they'd get now if they ever wanted to sell out .

Good post Penguin - I'd almost forgotten about Tellurian

You are right that the OGA will require all Licence holders to sign up for a Plan of Development - that's HHDL & Tellurian of course - AND they have to have Planning Permission from SCC before the OGA will sign off..

I think you have the wrong end of the stick about the 362 barrels a day tho' - IIRC HHDL have always said the current well has a "skin" problem - google it a common issue apparently - but that a well without "skin damage" would produce 362 Barrels . A horizontal/high angle well would produce a lot more.

problem is they can't prove it right now as they only have the original, 2014 well (maybe the skin damage was caused then - it was Tidswell drilling it so God knows what actually happened) and until they get a new drill they can't prove it one way or the other I understand. that';s why everyone's looking forward to the new Portland bore and sidetrack sidetrack

Nothing like that - its a question of scale.

Way back BP and other large oil companies explored the UK Onshore onshore - by the mid/late '80's it was clear that only one decent sized oil field had been discovered (Wytch Farm) and the rest was all small stuff. It makes no sense to spend your money , and worse the time of the limited number of people you have, chasing small fields.

BP currently produce 3.6 MILLION barrels a day worldwide - so they have to FIND 3.6 million a day - in context that means EVERY DAY finding 2 Horse Hill's , putting them on production, getting all the oil out and abandoning them day after day - it can't be done. They go after fields in places like Angola where you can get 100,000 barrels a day and that last for 20-30 years.

There is also the issue of Planning, the EA, swampies etc - who wants to go through that every day when they can go offshore? No protesters, no-one chaining themselves to the rig and the CEO and BOD don't have to waste their time in some draughty village hall somewhere in the wilds of Surrey on Friday night talking to idiots who threaten to burn them in effigy.

That's why they will never buy into Angus or HHDL - it makes no sense unless and until we get US style industrial and planning policies

I guess he decided he can fund the operations through either debt or dilution

Since they seem to be lined up 10 deep to take paper he chose dilution - and I think I would in his place - a lot of AIM companies sink under a debt burden that is unsustainable if there are delays or setbacks. Having been in the shares for nearly 5 years I expect dilution to continue - the pattern has be there from day 1 and if you're surprised I'm astounded.

Plus of course the BOD get all their plans approved at N Korean levels at the AGM - so why would they change? It's clear the PI's on here are a very very small voice in the UKOG world

I take EVERY AIM RNS and ask myself -

"why did they use that specific word?

what alternative word could they have used??

and why didn't they use the alternative"

hence the vital difference in the latest RNS between "WILL", "WOULD" and "COULD" re the testing gear.......... to me it suggests some sort of surprise - not necessarily a fatal one but something they didn't expect and certainly hadn't planned on. Thus the need to consult their partners and do extra work

I get perplexed when I read things like

"get a great CEO and he'll guide the business and put confidence back in the SP"

How, exactly??

Will he be able to change the facts on and in the ground?

Will he be able to sweet talk SCC into doing something they clearly think might be electoral suicide?

Will he be able to get loans at low rates so we don't have any more dilution?

HOW will anyone put confidence back in the stock price??

By doing pretty much what the current BOD are doing.... plugging away trying to get Horse Hill into production ASAP - sure it's not as fast as anyone would like or hope but I can't see a single thing they've done at Horse Hill that hasn't been done without production in mind

a few weeks ago George Lucan was being praised as a combination of Rockfeller and jesus over on the Angus Board - and where are they now....... starting to realize that however flash your CEO is it doesn't change the rocks or the oil or the water

Lets see - possible milestones

1. Some production target reached - anytime

2, Completion of testing - maybe 2-3 weeks

3. Rig contract - 2-3 weeks

4. CPR 2 months after #2

5. Acquisition - anytime

I don't think George Lucan is an Engineer of that type.... every word is carefully weighed in an AIM RNS

nice to be right for once.....................

I think Allan WOULD have had the test gear ready to go - but a lot depends on how long it takes to get. If it's a couple of days the cost/benfit is probably to wait and see - but if it's a week or more..... that would suggest they weren't as confident they'd get the packer set correctly first time in my book.

Alan refered to some of the issues you had to be aware when using these packers in a post a week or so back - it should be straightforward but there's always a chance it goes wrong - and given the track record here......

the fact they are "interpreting" the results when there shouldn't be any sounds like a smokescreen to cover up the delay or to get the partners to shell out

One small correction Alan

"UKOG (actually Angus did it for them) flow tested their deviated well in both the Upper and Lower Kimmeridge back in 2016"

Tidswell drilled the original well for HHDL in 2014 but when Lenigas brought in Sanderson late 2014 JT was out and UKOG bought out Angus completely in April 2016. Look back and SS was the face of Horse hill from 2015... and JT was nowhere. The 2016 test was conducted by Sanderson and his crew.

I never understood why Angus sold out TBH

I was once told that the engineers interpret the results on a log-based graph - so 1 second, 1 minute, 1 hour, 1 day.... instead of 1,2,3 etc along the bottom (the maths are probably mind-boggling...)

This means they need very long flow periods to see what they really want - a short build-up gives useful pressure data but the longer the test the better I was told. Plus of course the longer they're doing nothing the closer they get to the natural, undisturbed values instead of trying to look at pressures while the pump is going up and down...... bit like ripples in a lake I guess.......

A long build-up suggests a careful, scientific approach to get the data needed for a CPR - this way the range of values computed will be much tighter than say a 12 hour build-up. They must be feeling quite confident

As Allen says there is clearly no test kit on site - the RNS today says:-

" before proceeding to the next stage which would involve bringing on site full well testing equipment and commencing flow tests"

So it isn't there yet - the Eye's will no doubt tell us when it tuns up - certainly before the Company does I expect

The question is how long does it take to mobilise? I presume they have been talking to people and they probably have a call-out contract in place anyway - but that assumes there's a spare set sitting on a shelf waiting to go - which may not be the case (see UKOG/HHDL and their rig - lack of).

PI's will be nervous until they hear it's on it's way

And of course there is the EuroElection on May 23rd..............................

No doubt the Councillors didn't want a bunch of unfortunate headlines on people's breakfast table the very next day.....................................

Agreed - in these cases every word has been very very carefully weighed.

Tho' "WOULD" is better than "COULD" - but it does suggest that the BOD aren't ABSOLUTELY certain that they WILL be mobilizing the test kit.......

"Why do the results have to be discussed in the first place? Angus is the operator, no?"

Because the Joint Operating Agreement between the Companies on the Licence sets out what sort of operations (and costs) the Operator can do without agreement and those that they HAVE to consult/agree/vote on.

A wise Operator keeps the partners in the loop as a) they are paying a share b) they can cause you all sorts of bother if they put their minds to it - often a year or so down the road or even in a different Licence altogether.

Is that rig coming our way or what?"

No it isn't - the rig that was at Brockham can't drill the wells UKOG/HHDL have planned at Horse Hill - it's a simple work-over rig.

the only active exploration/appraisal rig currently around is the BDF 28 which is at West Newton and won't be available until end of June at the earliest according to the W Newton Operator

"Application has not progressed
One item

So UKOG's fault then"

Doubt it - much more likely the Planning Officials are still sorting through all the objections. In cases like these they'll want to be as legaly watertight as possible as there is a very high chance of finishing in a Public Enquiry/Court No-one wants their career to suffer due to some oversight so it it'll be a belt and braces job with every step checked by senior staff AND the legal dept.

UKOG/HHDL have spent a lot of time talking to SCC and have had a lot more success than some others - I doubt they'll go the legal route until there is no alternative. After all they're going to have to deal withe same people for the next 40 years or so..........