Member Info for Mirasol

Charlie

I'd appreciate any link you could give with a mention of the Kimmeridge as a target prior to late 2014 after the well was drilled.

Magellan thought so much about it they sold up all their interests beforehand and only farmed Horse Hill as it had Portland and Triassic potential IIRC. If Tidswell liked the Kimmeridge why did he sell out Angus's interest in Horse Hill??

I'm sure we'd all prefer it (with hindsight) if he'd dumped Lidsey and held onto Horse Hill......

"DL is the architect of it all, he spotted that new drill methods would unlock the Kimmeridge, so he formed HHDL."

What new methods Baker? As far as anyone knows it was Tidswell who drilled Horse Hill using a bog standard rig and methods and it was Sanderson who recognized the Kimmeridge - Lenigas put the shareholders together and then promptly quit from UKOG so he could trade to his hearts content without being an insider.

I was a shareholder in early 2014 and no-one ever mentioned the Kimmeridge - it was Portland and the deep Triassic (as in Wytch Farm) they were after - that's why they drilled it about a mile past the Kimmeridge in depth.

Not sure - it's a production site so they can probably work 24/7 but will almost certainly have restrictions on traffic in and out over the weekend

The amount of work they can do sub-surface will be subject to whatever the details are in their permissions. The experts seem to think it's a multi-stage operation underway so it may well be a week before we get any new information

Understood it watered out quite quickly - I don't think it's very large TBH. You might keep it going to avoid having to close it down then restore it - that could cost you a million easily.

Why you'd pay someone to get extra here I don't understand but it's clear DOM needed/wanted to get out to invest in Australia. They sold out part of Horse Hil around the same time. What Angus got out of the deal is not clear to me

Basil

as pointed out they average 1 tanker a day - there probably ISN'T a second tanker today..

I'd expect two tomorrow to empty the tanks as much as possible before the holiday weekend - when they can't ship anything - and maybe 3 on Tuesday next week (so don't get excited - it's just the overhang from the weekend), followed by two on Wed and 1 on Thurs & Friday

If the pump rate stays the same (as the eyes report) then the production is almost certainly steady at just over 200 barrels a day

I think Mr Lenigas has been a divisive figure for a lot longer than 2018..

see https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10110859/Lenigas-quits-FastJet-after-latest-bust-up.html

Alastair Osborne, now of the Times seems to hate him for some reason and is always taking shots at him in his Times column.

DL seems to be a serial entrepreneur - some people have made a lot of money following him and others seem to have lost as well. One thing is that he doesn't hang around a business for a long time - he's in and out quite quickly and has been a Director of a very large number of companies

Merger - I doubt it - IIRC Steve S replaced Tidswell at Horse Hill Developments and eased Angus out of Horse Hill - so I doubt there's much love there

And Angus bring little to the party right now - a damaged reputation, 2 non-performing wells and hardly any production

A take-over now............... for UKOG paper of course........ might happen.......

I don't think the EWT cash is enough TBH - 220 a day is around $3 million a year clear - the horizontal drilling is 3 operations and they're going to be about $2- 3 million each I'd bet

As for tankers they I don't think they're shipping more - the eyes haven't reported a major increase in pump rate and they often ship 2 a day - as they never seem to ship on Sundays and rarely on Saturdays - I think it averages 1 per day over a couple of weeks

has anyone any evidence that they ever look in the UKOG Inbox? I've never heard of ANY small cap company answering investors

Let's face it - most of the stock must be held by people who are quite happy with SS's actions - otherwise why did they re-elect him last week?? By a vast majority I heard....................

Small PI's have no say at all - it's AIM after all

One thing strikes me re the news today

Both Europa and UJ knew UKOG are sitting on £ 3.5 mm in cash from the recent raise but they are willing to accept paper. They could have held out for cash but presumably felt exposure to the bigger picture was worth ditching their interests in Holmwood , which TBH , has been dead in the water under Europa operatorship for some years.

Can someone explain why there is a horror of Consolidation on this board?

If I own 100 share at 1p and they are consolidated into 1 share at £1 I'm no worse off. Consolidation doesn't change the Market cap.

And a lot of big institutions will never invest in penny shares.

Dilution, especially when the PI's get no chance to take part, is a very different game IMHO. It's a licence to print money at the cost of the original investors unless the share price moves up to compensate.

PS - as an aside I believe every Option agreement I've ever seen is in shares so dilution affects the option holders same as the PI's

I suspect they understand the Portland as it has been found before. - so it's relatively straightforward to evaluate and produce.

The Kimmeridge wasn't even known about until 2014 and it's all new - US experience suggest you need at least 8-10 successful wells to get ANY idea of what a new play can do. They have Horse Hill - good, Brockham - screwed up, Balcombe - screwed up, Broadford Bridge - screwed up. All three may, but not certainly, come good in the future but that's still not many data points.

So they're taking it one step at a time - and the Portland will pay the bills for a few years.

No injunction? W Newton is operated by Rathln - about all they have in the Uk and almost all of their people seem to be Canadians based in Calgary. Probably don't know any expensive City lawyers and/or don't pay much attention to ho others do things here.

Injunctions have only really come in in the last few years - and of course they cost serious time and money

RNS at 1446UKOG announces that at its Annual General Meeting held earlier today, all resolutions put to shareholders were duly passed.

As I've said before I think the rig they might want has gone to W Newton so they are probably a bit behind the early 2019 plans

On the other hand steady production from the well is a very good sign - no doubt they are carrying out maintenance while changing out the gauges - which I believe are battery powered and so need to be pulled/replaced every 2-3 months.

I posted this over the weekend on the Angus Board - you can expect two tankers most Monday's.....

They say they are producing over 200 barrel a day so maybe 1400 barrel a week = 238,000 litres = 8 tankers a week approx. they can't ship on Sunday and Sat afternoon so you will get 1 day and maybe 2 a day on a Monday

If there is any maintenance, or a rumour of swampy activity, or a visit by the Council they will probably roll over a shipment to the next day.

So far the "eyes" seem to report a pattern that fits a continuous 200++ a day TBH

They say they are producing over 200 barrel a day so maybe 1400 barrel a week = 238,000 litres = 8 tankers a week approx.

they can't ship on Sunday and Sat afternoon so you will get 1 day and maybe 2 a day on a Monday

If there is any maintenance, or a rumour of swampy activity, or a visit by the Council they will probably roll over a shipment to the next day.

So far the "eyes" seem to report a pattern that fits a continuous 200++ a day TBH

I'm sure Angus have calculated the timings carefully and added a cushion as well but 20+ years investing in Onshore UK (and other oil companies) suggests we treat these with caution and expect delays - things break, there are all sorts of possible unforeseen actions .

Drilling wells is not a production line process - think about it - they are pushing a 4 inch piece of string somewhere between half a mile and a mile underground and they can't see where it is or what it's surrounded by - it's all really done by "feel" backed up with a lot of interpretative ideas and a shed load of data - which is fine but ........

1. Angus are using a workover rig - this couldn't drill the Horse Hill wells - I suspect that the suitable rig has gone to Yorkshire - since they started site work around Christmas they may have had the rig on contract and it's slipped a couple of months thus pushing back Horse Hill drilling as well

2. In my experience everything in the oil business is late - just look at Hurricane for example - add 6 months to any forecast date given by in an RNS

3. Angus and UKOG aren't in a race - what is good news for one is good news for the other - even better you don't pay for the good news from the other outfit

4. Tony is correct - there is a world of difference between Angus (who have little solid production) and UKOG who seem to be guaranteed a minimum of 200 barrels a day - which level, sad to say, makes them a major player onshore UK.........

There aren't that many rigs in the Uk - maybe 3? and a couple of wok-over rigs as well - and the rigs all have different capabilities

Angus have a PW workover rig and Rathlin an unspecified drilling rig. Possible that UKOG are going for the same rig as Rathlin to turn up once West Newton is finished. There is a lot of sense in using a rig that has been drilling recently as the crew and kit are shaken down

There is also the monster German rig near Truro drilling 2 five thousand metre geothermal wells but that is only half way through the programme I believe