Member Info for Mirasol

The OGA will be monitoring the test closely

they can extend the limits if they want - officially these can't be done for simple "commercial" reasons but if UKOG/HHDL can make a case that they are still collecting vital information then they have a good platform.

Especially as there is bugger all else going on onshore I'd guess the OGA like to see activity.

I'm sure they're also in contact with the Council - it would be crazy to try and put one over on them

Is it market sensitive - no - because they are continuing as they have done for the last year = no change

Stopping or the rig on site is a critical change; some day traders desperate for news is not the business of either UKOG and CERTAINLY not the OGA

I have sympathy for E_Al here - a company the size of Angus (or UKOG or Egdon) can't efforts to have well test engineers sitting around all day - they cost serious money. The actual testing (the operation of the kit etc) is contracted to the likes of PW Well test and the engineer are brought in from Halliburton, Schlumberger XODUS etc etc

You can bet your life their reports reflect & report the actual facts without any spin.

The problem occurs when these are given to management who cherry-pick the data to give themselves a good RNS. A number of us raved on trying to point out out that Angus NEVER reported total production from Brockham - just instantaneous rates that were spun like silk by Vonk et al to entrap investors

The people who should have stopped it are the NOMADS - but they probably don't know a flow test from a hole in the ground - 3rd rate City types who can't get a job at a decent institution - plus of course they make money from the Company and trading - so they're always open to pressure

In 5 years the reports will be public.......... a bit too late for all of us I'm afraid

I have done some digging about and I suspect there may well be some value in Saltfleetby, especially for a smaller company like Angus.

Problem is how long is it going to take and how much extra will they have to sink into it but it could be cash generative in 2021-2022 I think (2019 is a write-off and anything onshore UK seems to take at least 18 months).

Balcombe? My big worry here is why did Cuadrilla farm it out? I don't think they can have been totally confident in their chances of making it work TBH. You have to ask yourself who do you think would do a better job - Cuadrilla or Angus.....................

Don't disagree - but it's the idea that the stock is being manipulated I find odd.

I notice it's normally the excuse given by posters when it isn't doing what they want - up or down.......

I'm amused at the idea that a share with BILLIONS of shares out there can be "held back". Who owns this vast overhang? It's thousands of PI's trading a few hundred quids a day thinking they'll get rich............

"the total value of the company's assets "

trouble is this "value" was brought to you by JTP/Vonk/Lucan - the same people who puffed Brockham

So why do we believe any of what they say ?

The market clearly doesn't believe them

There are billions of UKOG shares out there - and many in the hands of the day traders

When UKOG is one of the most traded stocks in the UK it doesn't surprise me - lots of liquidity for those who like to buy and sell, buy and sell, buy and...................

I think gkb47 is probably correct - he was fooled like the rest of us.......

I found his technical stuff pretty much spot on, though he had a tendency to patronize anyone who had a slightly different opinion. I suspect he's in the industry, maybe in Aberdeen. I never saw him as a JTP fan, more he looked at what they SAID they were doing and believed it........ BIG MISTAKE

Probably spent his career working for normal oil companies and couldn't believe anyone would be such a bunch of ... optimists???

Not really - its a fractured reservoir but in much older rocks - no doubt there are similar challenges in figuring out what the reserves are and how much you can get out and how but the detail looks very different

At least UKOG didn't have to raise $ 500++ million to run their well test..................

If Tidswell is involved it'll be garden path.................

Trouble is no-one has yet used the "new process" to get a quick connection to the grid so there is no track record to refer to....................................

and whatever people think they still need new planning permission for Balcombe.

The problem is that the Planning Application at Balcombe is still not submitted

Even if it was for an extension to a garage it would then take 3 months

You can bet your life the Council and the Swampies will delay this over and over. They have to consult ( a legal necessity) and the Council officials will be s*** scared of legal action so they'll crawl all over it.

Horse Hill have been waiting 8 months for their application to even be heard. If the Council reject it for any reason its another 3-6 months to go back - if they keep rejecting it (as they do in Lancashire etc) you eventually have to have a public enquiry - another 12 months.

Every step is open to legal challenge and will be challenged.

Remember Holmwood? 8+ years of planning arguments.................. and still not drilled.............

As for Saltfleetby - if anyone knows someone who established a National Grid connection in less than 18 months you'd better let the industry know. I understand it took the National Grid 4 months to answer a simple letter of enquiry for another operator - they don't want to bother with small onshore gas fields - they only want to deal with N Sea operators who offer vastly larger volumes and much longer peak flows.

21ATS - i can't argue with that - all oil field projects drift to the right I'm afraid - it's now nearly 5 years since they started to drill Horse Hill 1.................

No I don't think articles on the new field as ramping

what is ramping is not to mention it could be 2 years and a shed load of cash before it comes back on stream

And Balcombe? Take any of the RNS re Brockham and you'll see the same pattern - instantaneous rates, nothing shipped, nothing sold - just the same analysis by the same people who screwed up Lidsey and Brockham. And at least a 6-12 month wait AFTER they get Planning into the Council

Nothing serious happening here - just day trading for 2 years. I'm sure it will suit many and some of them will make money but don't confuse it with long term value

Good post HITS

The only way to make money here for the next year or two is to day trade on the back of the rampers here

Everyone who averaged down has been left with a bucket load of stock that cost them a fortune and is worth 4% of the float price - in a couple of years. I didn't average down but am still left with original purchases from the original float .... not pretty. If I decide to day trade (buy on Friday late, sell on Wednesday seems to be the pattern) I might actually make something - but it'll never get back the original investment .

ATS:- "Only recoverable oil in operational drilled fields with full PP can be included in a CPR"

that's not quite true

The standard system is whats called the PRMS - its definitions are explained here

https://www.spe.org/industry/petroleum-reserves-definitions.php
http://gaffney-cline-focus.com/the-competent-persons-report

This classifies all resources in any field or prospect into a grid which ranges from Undeveloped Probable through to Proven Developed Producing. A CPR will try and categorise all the resources into these categories.

When it's all blue sky and no information you can still get a value for that category but it'll be maybe 5 cents a barrel.

A bank will give/value/loan you maybe $15 a barrel for proven undeveloped and maybe $ 30 a barrel for proven producing developed.

Proven means (amongst other things) that you have all the Govt permits in place, an export route and (maybe) a customer.

So right now any CPR will just put all the Portland into Probable Undeveloped and the Kimmeridge into Possible Undeveloped which isn't worth a lot to a bank TBH. Once they have Development approval from the OGA the Portland moves into Proven Developed and (probably) the Kimmeridge into Probable Developed - which is worth an order of magnitude more than today.

No but just look at all the kit they deploy - I'm not sure what half of it is but I'm sure they don't hire it for the sake of it................. and all of it has to be there before they start a new borehole.

And of course that is IN ADDITION to most of what is there right now - that's the basic test set up and that will all be required to stay to keep pumping. Probably a couple of the offices and the security hutch can be used for both - and of course the Grandstand.......

I count over 30 container sized units on the Broadford Bridge picture -there are currently maybe 5 on site for the well test - plus the shakers, the drill pipe, the racking and the mud pits as well as the basic rig..............................

Look at the pictures of Broadford Bridge boys... sure the rig itself is one truck - then there are all the pumps, the mud tanks, the drill pipe, the chemicals , the crew quarters, the mud logging shack, the shakers, the winches........................ and tell me how you get that on one truck.......

https://drillordrop.com/2017/10/10/cement-bond-problems-at-ukogs-broadford-bridge-well-announcement-to-investors/

Dog - the rig is very very unlikely to appear before Monday at the earliest

it requires something like 40 truck loadsof kit and they can't move a thing Sat p/m or Sunday

No-one will start a rig move with only 4-6 hours of the day available so today is already shot , Saturday is very tough (and Sat is a good day for the swampies to get help) and Sunday is out

I'm starting to think they still don't have a rig on contract and we'll be lucky to see it in the next 3 weeks TBH - hope I'm wrong