Member Info for Mirasol

well they do very little and they do it very slowly so I wouldn't put much faith in them as saviours of the Weald.

Any small outfit that keeps their main office in Mayfair is one to avoid IMHO

Pboo

Can't access Weald Oilers - who is the company they're touting ?

Thanks

Well as a few people have pointed out IGas are talking of "up to 2 wells" - no dates either - they probably had to promise something to the OGA to get a Licence extension.

I think they have a lot of penetrations of the Kimmeridge and almost all of them are in the public domain - the big problem is that only UKOG have been able to make it work so far and I'd guess Igas are well behind the learning curve on this.

I'm not surprised the estimates for gas in place differ between IGas and UKOG - two different companies doing the CPR's and it's not clear what is what . The UKOG Nov 18 looks like total structure whereas the Igas CPR is clearly net their block.

It makes sense for the company currently active in the Weald, who are up to speed with the Council etc to do the drilling - ie UKOG. But it also makes sense for the 2 companies to co-operate. Ideally they'd pre-unitize the prospect on an agreed split but even if they don't any well makes/breaks both of their targets so they might as well split the costs.

TBH I don't think Igas are THAT interested - they've sat on their backsides for years and never done anything about Godley Bridge - didn't even farmin to the acreage when Celtique were looking for partners.

"What would anybody pay today for Horse Hill?"

Well based on what UKOG paid Solo etc most people think the Tellurian/ Magellan 35% share of Horse Hill is worth around £ 10 million so around £ 285 k per percentage point or £ 28 million for the lot

Trouble is Brockham doesn't have no value - it now has a negative value

they only have £ 0.5 million on the books (and I doubt that is ring-fenced) for abandonment - and they aren't going to be able to abandon all the wells & facilities at Brockham for that cost................

Any buyer will want cash up front to cover that cost

Correct Captain - tho' I suspect Horse Hill operations sequence is more to do with trying to keep the Council on side until they get their planning application through. Prioritizing the Portland makes sense - they know they can make money there whereas they clearly state they don't have the same understanding of the Kimmeridge yet.

Angus is now a day traders share - people buying and selling every morning picking up pennies in front of the steam roller and making the MM's rich on the spread and the fees.

I'm going to wait and see what Lucan has to say (and what he DOESN'T say) next week before taking a decision to cut my (almost total) losses since the IPO or hang in..............

This is Godley Bridge Appraisal – as the structure is shared with UKOG in the next Licence who already have an planning Application in to appraise it at Dunsfold/Loxley Park a jointly funded well makes sense - and UKOG have the experience and knowledge here that IGas don't.

"It hasn’t been talked about much but why, when we have been told for a long time that the key approvals are in place are we waiting on final drilling approval from OGA to commence drilling? Was it overlooked? Is it something you have to leave to the drill date to apply for? Is there an issue with the approval?"

The key approvals they mentioned are INTERNAL approvals - nothing said about the partners for a start

Also they have Planning permission and general OGA approval for next phase (but not their production application) but they will have to get a final sign off when the rig arrives - as we don't know if they have contracted a rig or not the OGA may be waiting for the final submission - they'll need to know EXACTLY what HHDL are going to do. It's not a major piece of paperwork - especially if you are using a rig you've had before. The OGA seem to have been very helpful to HHDL - they seem to be happy extending the test duration time and again - presumably they need an onshore success as much as we do.......

I suspect that they've been happy to keep the Well test running in the hope that they would have got the Council to sign off the Production Planning Application before the big rig turns up - unfortunately they are still sitting on their hands

Don't build your hopes up about next week.

What can Lucan say about Balcombe? "we plan to put in a planning application" is about it

Given that this will take somewhere between 6 months and 10 years to get through the Council there really isn't going to be much to look forward to - other than Saltfleetby and maybe some wild new foreign adventure..............

The Govt taking over the planning is a big step forward - but it may mean Councils will just drag the whole thing out in the hope the Govt will come in and takeover thus getting the Councillors off the hook with the swampies

Thanks Pboo - I can figure out where that is ..... and it makes sense to park it there well away from the swampies

A while back I said I thought we wouldn't see the rig much before the end of July as it was probably going somewhere else for a short job after W Newton. So far it looks like I was correct as they are still working on the Horse Hill site to moving kit around to create space for it

A couple of the eyes said they knew where it had gone to (or was parked) but never gave a location

Has anyone any idea where it is? It's not exactly easy to hide... Is it back at the BDF yard in Nottingham??

If only it were that simple

They have to reenter each well (3 or 4 at Brockham?) and seal it off properly - for each one that's 2-3 stages of running plugs and pumping cement and pressure testing before removing the well head. Then all the surface kit - pipes, pumps, tanks, loading rig etc etc has to be removed and all the stone (probably several thousand tonnes) that covers the site, plus the seal. then you have restore the soil and the drainage before replanting. All the kit and the stone has to be disposed off at special sites or cleaned up first.

All of this has to be done to a high standard and the EA, the planners and the OGA will be all over them like a rash - especially Angus given their previous behaviour.

If you have to use a drilling rig to abandon the well bores (which is often the case) you're looking at £ 20k a day minimum - and looking at Drill or Drop it took UKOG 3-4 weeks to abandon a single well at Markwells Wood and that only had a well head - and they still haven't replanted the site yet.

And who made that estimate ? Vonk & JTP

Fills you with confidence (not). You don't get much in the oil patch for half a million quid......

Anyone know what it cost UKOG to abandon Markwells Wood recently - that was a single drill ??

And is the money ring fenced in a separate account or just swilling around in the big bucket that pays the BoD salaries?

Penguins

I went back to my mate and he says yes, there probably IS a deviation survey - but that may be the issue .

Probably the deviation survey puts the well in one place but other information shows that is dubious - and you have no real way of checking as the work was done maybe 30 years ago. Collendean Farm north of Horse Hill was drilled nearly 60 years ago - you'd be lucky to find a living ember of the crew

I'd never realized that even the basic information they work with was so possibly untrustworthy

He also said there are a lot of reasons the structure doesn't appear to close - wrong interpretation, different ages of data recorded differently, depth conversion issues (an apparent real black box). UKOG have all the data - it just doesn't all hang together - one of the risks of the game apparently

Ho hum....

That's an amazing press release - it states they found out from the announcement.............. tho I suspect that maybe Lenigas was told last week and that's why he had to go as he's always been a great mate of JTP

Having stated unilaterally that it has no future and they want out ASAP they've also fouled the pond for a sale.

Any buyer will say "no value in the asset, maybe £2 million in abandonment liability... how much are you willing to give us George?"

After all that s what has happened at Salfleetby - Lucan has been trumpeting how much WINGAS are paying him for his pound buy...

What's good enough for the goose..........

And I'll bet the OGA are making enquiries re the same liability.................. Company Guarantees, Joint & Several Liability..... bring on the lawyers......

Penguins

I was struck by the note "> The precise location of Alfold-1 and its penetration of the Portland is unknown" - this sounded incredible so I asked a mate in the industry - he says it happens all the time - onshore UK is a real rag bag of operators stretching back over 60+ years and the records are all over the shop. Seismic lines are especially undocumented in detail and you apparently often finish up with several choices as to where the data is . Wells are n't totally lost but are occasionally several hundred metres in error depending on what source you use.

He said you can see something is wrong as the data gives contradictory answers but you're never sure which bit is wrong. Finding an old photograph is often the best way of cross-checking but...................

Trying to guess what difference one or two injectors make is crazy right now. The XODUS CPR was done on the basis of the data to hand - on e well and one well test in 2016 - they now have over a years worth of hard production data

They will be coring the new wells = even more information

This will all have to be fed into a new reservoir model which they'l use to model various injection schemes . These will then be tested for economics and ranked. They may drill more injectors or less - right now they really have no idea - but they'll only drill them if it makes economic sense.

Quince's top level valuation is probably as good as you'll get for some time (maybe a couple of years) - trying to fine tune it right now is absolutely pointless IMHO

Magellan never mention Horse Hill - it's totally off their corporate radar - they're a company that has raised hundreds of millions of dollars this year alone for their LNG plans in the USA. Horse Hill is probably about 0.001% of their value

I expect they would sell if someone offered them $ 10 million (which is approx the rate paid to Solo etc)