Member Info for Mirasol

"G Lucan need to improve his rubbish IR skills and listen to LTHS concerns"

What can he say Sam? If he tries to move the price by telling porkies he get's it in the neck, if he tells the truth ("any real , material change is 6-24 months away") he gets hammered and if he says nothing he gets it as well

I'm no fan - he's better than Vonk but still is a mate of JTP - and his Brockham mis-representation was very unpleasant - but what can he do?

I think we have to be careful about the 2016 test - again I seem to remember it flowed without pumping at one point also that they used acid? But they pumped it as well. They got some very high headline rates - far above what they are reporting now. I suspect it was mainly "flush production" in 2016 - a couple of big fractures flowing like s*** over a few hours (Brockham & Balcombe anyone?). The current long term test is showing a nice 200+ barrels a day from the Kimmeridge - this isn't 1500 barrels but it's almost certainly commercial in it's own right - just look around and see what other onshore UK fields produce. Tied in with the Portland it MUST be commercial as the Portland will pay for almost all the facilities, the planning and the viewing platform

We're still a long way from Lenigas's numbers but I'm sure this will be around for at least 10 years now.

" I make 5,524 bbls about 25 tankers in about 25 days, an average over 25 days since restart of the Kimmeridge ewt of about 221bopd – just about what Mirasol predicted yesterday morning. So posters calculating revenue based on 440bopd based on the 2 tankers a day also wrong - with an initial half hour rate of 332bopd, and since then a ‘stable’ production rate between 200 and 266 bopd How come a poster on this board can come up with a more accurate figure than the guys who boast how truthful they are and they should be believed above all others.?"

If that's me your referring to Penguin I have to modestly say I wasn't he only one who was using those figures - quite a few others have done the same- and it's not rocket science.

All you had to do was to look at the rates in previous RNS's. Then had anything changed? The Eyes (God bless them) hadn't reported a change in the pump on site nor had they reported a sudden change in the pump rate (which is somewhere from 4-6 strokes a minute IIRC). Going back over the last year the eyes regularly report 2 tankers on a Monday and three after a Bank Holiday - we know that and it hasn't changed either.

Those claiming much higher rates never offer any evidence - they take the "three tankers yesterday" and extrapolate over a week, a month.... they never mention (or forget) no tankers on a Sunday, the days when there is some work on site......

Not sure if its deliberate or just wanting to believe in a golden future

On your other points I think you're too negative - flow rates from a fractured reservoir are, according to the books, often highly variable so previous variation is not unexpected and stability is good news

Portland water injection? Something they can change easily once they start producing and fine tune the reservoir model - but if it's a "larger connected volume" its's either better quality rocks or it's cover s a bigger area...................... either or both is encouraging

How DHC has the nerve to come on here after he ramped Brockham sky high (Angus will be 10p get on board! Just before they told the truth) is beyond me.........................

E_Al - who told you Balcombe was in a "sweet spot"?

The same people who said Brockham was just a matter of turning on the taps?

If Sanderson said it I might (just) believe him - but if it was Vonk or JTP.......................

THE critical technical points are

1. No water - from either reservoir - this is amazing considering the issues Angus have down the road

2. Pressure s holding up - again very very good news . Shows the benefit of long term testing rather than a 24 hour suck it see approach

3, Significant increase in Portland volumes - again a benefit of a long term test but this is a really good result

PS I note those of us who were saying 1 tanker (200-220 bbbl) a day on average in July are proven to be correct...................

Very positive RNS from UKOG this morning - stable production, 60,000 + barrels produced, rig on its way , no water in either Kimmeridge or Portland, connected volumes up significantly.

How different from our own, dear Company

Be interesting to see ho the market responds - I've been diluted to death over there since 2014

Woops!

Oh I do Wile - I do

I've been listening to Angus since the float - and it's all shifty lies all the time

Even the "new team" have already been caught telling us one thing and doing another .............

"everyone has had enough and are selling up"

yes its red but EVERYBODY????? - all I see is maybe a max of 300,000 shares trading - day traders - and small ones at that

Say around 20-30 million shares a day - That leaves another 5,970,000,000 untraded.................

Wile it is now almost August - to get any income from Balcombe in 2019 Angus has to get planning permission etc etc

Please tell me who has managed to get such permission in less than 6 months ANYWHERE onshore UK since 2013 - hell they haven't even submitted it yet...........

As for seismic at Lidsey... if they intend to get NEW data they'll need a crew - and there isn't one in the UK - in fact I'm not sure there is one in W Europe - so the time and costs are going to be very very high. Now they don't need full planning permission if it 's a short programme I believe but they will need EA and traffic approvals almost certainly

Even reprocessing the old data will take several months - and it will almost certainly confirm every map that has been made in the last 15++ years - so no change there - its tiny and it suffers from serious water problems

Saltfleetby mid 2020? Unlikely - they have to permit the connection, then actually do the job then fix the wells so they can produce again........ 18-24 months

I suspect a lot of people don't realise that LSE - here - is NOT the London Stock Exchange but a commercial site London South East (strange that ...... )

London South East Trading is a trading name of Jarvis Investment Management Ltd who are based in a large 3 storey house in Tunbridge Wells.

They take the info from the Stock Exchange and try (not always successfully) to make sense of it

Charlie- we know Alba aren't contributing their full share to the EWT costs (17th June Alba RNS) - that suggests they are short of cash or want out.

Tellurian? Why would a company that has such a massive market cap hang around for 35% of small beer in a country they have no other interest in? Sure its a matter of price - I'm sure neither wants more UKOG paper - I don't either so it'll be some cash as well.......... which is what I suspect the famous £3.5 million is for.............

"Frequently claimed on Twitter that there are two tanker collections per day, most days."

I think you'll find the AVERAGE is one per day whatever Adrian reports - 2 on Mondays or three after a Bank Holiday - they don't report days when they're not there or there are no shipments at all

Just look at the RNS's 11th June - 220 Bopd 50,871 barrels in total - that equals around 336 days since they started around 10th July 2018 = 151 bopd

There was a story (drill or drop?)at the time that the Councillors changed their minds due to one influential Councillor having a beef with the EA about some planning he'd been refused. He trashed the EA and said that they couldn't be trusted on anything and so they rest of them used that as an excuse to turndown Egdon

I think they released this would look very bad if it was repeated in front of the Inspector at the enquiry...............

If you were UKOG and looking to spend your cash (or further dilute your shareholders) which would you do?

1. take on Brockham where the Operator says it won't flow,where there are issues about Portland water injection, and where the history with the planners is toxic. Oh yes and it was all done by JTP...

OR

2. Buy out Alba/Tellurian and get more of a field you understand that is actually producing oil from both the Portland and the Kimmeridge? And you get rid of two semi-detached partners at the same time?

Guess............................................

Red seems to be assuming 2 tankers a day

All the evidence is the average is one per day - eyes, RNS's over a year and reports of pump rate

They seem to be settled on 200-230 barrels per day with maybe half a day a week down for some sort of maintenance/cleaning etc. Plus there is downtime when the pump needs fixing or they are pulling gauges/changing the test interval

AS I've posted before it seems to me there is a constraint (possibly self imposed) as they are flowing the Kimmeridge at almost exactly the same rate as the Portland - this is a big co-incidence. I suspect there may be pump limitations (ie they don't want to push it too hard) plus they're trying to stay within OGA/Planning limits and not have dozens of tankers on the road before they get permission to produce for 20 years.

Sanderson is playing a long game here

"Brockham: Do you know how many perforations there were per foot? Were they directional or omi-directional. What type of perforations were they?
BB: aggregate total of 1,064 ft of perforations over eight naturally fractured Kimmeridge zones."

there is absolutely no reason/need r/requirement for companies to publish this information so that small time investors can pontificate a way

if you REALLY want to know go and buy Alba's share (or a bit of it ) in HHDL

Alternatively you can wait 5 years and then spend about £ 500 to buy the released reports...............

I can't see it in the Readmission Documents but here's a Press release from Magellan............ I guess the actual agreement is between Magellan and HHDL

Magellan Provides Update on Horse Hill Flow Test
Download as PDF MARCH 02, 2016
DENVER, CO -- (Marketwired) -- 03/02/16 -- Magellan Petroleum Corporation (NASDAQ: MPET) ("Magellan" or the "Company") today announced updated results of a flow test of the Horse Hill-1 well located in the Weald Basin, onshore UK, which is operated by Horse Hill Development Limited ("HHDL") and in which Magellan has a 35% interest.

UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC ("UKOG"), listed on the AIM of the London Stock Exchange, owns direct and indirect interests totaling approximately 20% in the Horse Hill-1 well. On March 1, 2016, UKOG announced that HHDL had informed them of the results of the flow test of the Upper Kimmeridge limestone interval, which followed the previously announced flow test of the Lower Kimmeridge limestone interval, indicating that 100% dry, light, 40-degree API, sweet oil has flowed naturally to the surface from the Upper Kimmeridge limestone interval at a rate of approximately 900 bopd.

The Horse Hill-1 well lies within the license area of PEDL 137. Pursuant to a farmout agreement executed in December 2013, HHDL is the operator of and owns a 65% interest in both the license and the well, and Magellan is carried 100% for its 35% share of the costs of this well, including drilling, testing, and completion costs.

From what the eyes report the daily run is still about 1 tanker a day on average (=circa 200-220 barrels). They often run 2 on a Monday as there is no movement on Sunday and occasionaly 3 after a long weekend.

To me it looks as if they are producing the Kimmeridge at the same rate as the Portland - 200+ a day. This may be due to equipment restrictions (eg the size of the pump). It suggests they easily get 400 -450 a day if they could produce both Kimmeridge and Portland from the same well - I think this is possible but would require running a new production completion. Probably a risk and cost they 're not keen on until they have another, new producer on stream ... just in case they do a Tidswell.

Anything above 400 a day will require one of the sidetracks or the new wells