Member Info for Mirasol

"The astounding thing is that Angus (yet again) don't seem to have been in communication sufficiently with the EA and understood their needs, even after having one year to get this sorted."

Think you've hit the nail on the head GKB - any normal outfit, never mind one with a long history of issues with the planners, the OGA and the EA, would look around and say "what questions did they ask HHDL. What questions did they ask UKOG & Egdon & Europa?" And maybe pick up the phone or drive by and ask.....................

This has all the marks of the slap-dash approach which has been Angus's hallmark from day 1 and shows that our favourite ex-Director still pulls the strings.

The items in themselves can be addressed - but more time, more money and more delay............................

"I'm wondering about the decision not to drill the last 500ft"

There could be a (bad) technical reason - e.g the horizon was beginning to get deeper than prognosed, or the "sweet-spot" was disappearing, or the rig was having problems drilling on at a reasonable rate, or they were having problems getting the cuttings out - these are all issues with horizontal wells.

However lets assume things are fine - the reservoir engineers will calculating just how much each foot of the well can produce for a given drop in pressure. If the section near the "heel" is really good they'll get a great deal of oil from there and less and less from the "toe" or end of the section. You'll get it eventually but that might be years away. You don't want to drop the pressure very much unless you really have to so the amount you're producing is a function of the desired pressure drop and the size of the pipe etc. It may well have been a waste of time and cash (for now) to keep drilling.............

The next wells may (or may not ) be longer or shorter than the 2z - depends what they encounter - it's not an exact science by any means.

Google him . A self promoting idiot IMHO

"With offshore companies willing to spend billions to develop a field l"

yes but they know they can do it and what the timescale is. Onshore UK is a zoo - years to get permission to drill or test a single well plus swampies all over the company and it's people. The Big Boys won't come anywhere near it.

You might, just might, get a medium sized outfit to take a look but at the upside case that 286 mm in place - say 30% recovery = 75 mmbl and UJO have 15% = 11 mmbbl - even a medium sized outfit can find that in the N Sea fairly easily - without any of the hassle.

Sanderson has been very careful not to over produce from the Kimmeridge - I suspect they still have a lot of questions to answer and who in their right mind would risk bringing in the water right now?

Personally I'm happy with a few months of steady production - maybe we'd even see the back of these constant dilutions..........

That was the plan but as I pointed out yesterday the latest RNS says:

"The EWT, which will include the use of a British designed high-capacity/high-rate downhole electric pump or "ESP", is planned over a minimum 90-day flow period, following which HH-2z and HH-1 will be retained and converted into
long-term oil production wells."

No mention of a side track .

They may be over budget for 2019, they may want not want to risk their production well at HH1 until they have more confidence in HH2z production, or a load of other possibilities (Sanderson my just have forgotten to put something in in his excitement - it happens...).

My question tho is if they have 90 day EWT on HH2z where is the rig going? It's not needed for the EWT as its an expensive piece of kit to keep on stand-by. Time will tell.

Thanks IBUG - very interesting.

I see from the summary charts UKOG turnover in shares since start October has been 14 mm - 45mm approx a day - so less than £ 500k a day.

I did wonder if they were using an algorithm that just feeds in a million shares when they get their target price without any human intervention. That would be a cost -effective way of managing a penny share and ensuring they made their target.

And helium doesn't burn very well - that's why they use it in Airships these days - you're thinking of hydrogen ....................

There's always a lot of chat about the big investors overhang - "they must be selling etc" but when I look at the trades we're lucky to see 2.5 million shares as a big trade in a day - that's £ 25k.

I have trouble in thinking that big outfits like Riverfort and YA2 pay someone to feed in shares in dribs and drabs when they've got hundreds of millions of UKOG shares in the cupboard. Maybe they use people on work experience - otherwise I'd have though we'd see much bigger numbers going through,

Thoughts?

Remember that although occasionally HHDL have mentioned some natural flow from the well almost all the oil has been produced using a pump.

There is nothing in the latest RNS that suggests they expect natural flow and a lot about installing a pump.

I doubt we'll see any flow until the pump is working

"Am I correct in thinking they would give regular updates during the 90 days or are we just expecting a final report?"

We did not get regular updates for the HH-1 test - they issue them when they decide to - TBH they have better things to do than keep shoveling out RNS (which cost money and are a major distraction to the management team). If you want to know what's happening buy 1% of the equity from Alba or Lenigas

As we can't watch the ESP pump (well we can watch the rod pump but that's the Kimmeridge) the obvious metric will be tanker count. The Kimm at approx 220 bopd is 1 tanker on average per day. A few days above this would give us some idea of how it is doing 1000 a day + 200 from the Kimm = 6 tankers

"Its down because YA offloading. "
They're stil lin bed.... it's the dozens of small investors (many on here) who suddenly see a 10% gain and take it .

I'm sure they had a range of pumps lined up depending on what they found - they'll now have to order one and get it on site. There is no mention of natural flow so it may be a week or so before we see any production. It makes sense to stop if you're ahead reservoir wise - the additional 500- 1000ft may not produce very much if the zones closer to the rig are really good and you would take a chance of running into a fault or some issue that could cause you problems.

One thing slipped in was "following which HH-2z and HH-1 will be retained and converted into long-term oil production wells" - no mention of a Kimmeridge sidetrack as HH-1z......... Suspect they're going flat out to get the Portland (and the cash ) flowing ASAP

That twitter picture is so bad it could be anything

The RNS did say " "Horizontal drilling is expected to be completed by mid-November." but carefully said nothing about the logging that will be needed (gives SS a chance to get ANOTHER "progress" RNS out) I can't see a flow test at this side of the 24th Nov TBH

Good news is good news but it doesn't automatically turn into a stock rise.

Look at UKOG - every time they put out an RNS the price drops - and going back it was the same with Rockhopper in the Falklands -- they kept drilling successful wells and after each one the price dropped....... cost me a fortune

Thanks IBug -

Red - UKOG have to keep moving forward on ALL their prospects - it seems to take 2 years to get anything through the planning system in this country so they need to be chasing Godley Bridge (or whatever they call it these days), Broadford Bridge and the IoW AS WELL AS HH development. Otherwise they run out of activity and you finish up like Igas or Egdon with a well every 2-3 years......

Avington was 120 mm bl in place - finger trouble!

The update is encouraging but we should all remember there is a big difference between In-Place and recoverable

UKOG were ramped something rotten on the basis of "billions of barrels in the Weald" - so far they have managed to produce steadily 200-300 bopd - they aim for maybe 3x 4x those numbers but it's till a waiting game

Some of us will remember Avington which had over 1200 mmbbl in place but never produced more than 300 bopd and then watered out very quickly.

There is a long way to go to at West Newton. I hope they can do it but don't get carried away

" does no one question their motives to obtain intellectual property rights to what is renowned as the best producers of steel products?"

Well you have to ask why they keep going bust if they're so good.

TBH the UK is no longer a manufacturing country - there's a report on the BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50345761

It shows UK jobs are 83% in the service sector and only 8% in manufacturing - 25% health, education, public services, 22% finance & business, 21% retail and restaurants, 10% transport & 6% other services

The idea that manufacturing is going to be our saviour is wayyyyyy out of date I'm afraid - much more likely to be Burberry scarves and Costa Coffee

Another retired academic with too much time on his hands IMHO

Note the slithery language ""Although the British Geological Survey (BGS) and some university researchers appear to have ruled out a link to a recommencement of activity at Brockham or activity at Horse Hill, the existence of this seismicity does indicate that there are faults which could potentially be further destabilised by hydrocarbon-related activities."

He doesn't say that it's just about EVERY university lecturer who has a background in seimicity agreed with the BGS or that the ones who whine on are non-experts in the field.

This is the problem with DoD - it tries to sound unbiased but defaults to the swampy position emotionally - but I guess that's where Ruth makes her money..................