Member Info for Mirasol

"Could it be the case that they believe from the flow tests that the HH1 vertical well can flow 1000 BOPD without needing to be sidetracked."

They have been very careful to keep rates in the 200-250 bopd range from both levels.

the 3x improvement for the Portland often quoted is a rather unscientific rule of thumb guesstimate by both HHDL & XOdus - nothing wrong with that but it's not terribly scientific.

I assume the detailed calculations they must be making now still support 3x - say 700 - 800 bopd AS A MINIMUM - other wise I suspect we'd have seen weasel words by now. A lot depends on just how long they can actually drill the horizontal and how accurately they can steer it to stay in the reservoir. Then you have pump performance to take into account.

Right now I think Sanderson is playing it being quite conservative

For the Kimmeridge I still get the impression they really don't understand the reservoir in any detail - it's a fractured limestone shale sequence flowing over 600ft vertically from fractures...... and no water. try Googling THAT fro analogues.....
If you pulled the Vertical (actually sloping) HH-1 hard you might get very high rates indeed - but how long would they last? You might drain all the big fractures in a week or an hour (see Angus?)

I'm sure they are determined to keep the water out as long as possible - it screws up your production and costs money to dispose of. Far better (for now) to let it chug away at 200-300 bopd -it's a free ride on the Portland after all - until you drill more wells and can figure out what you can and can't do with it.

They will have to shut in the HH-1 to drill the -1z.

I suspect Sanderson is hoping to get (rig) rates from -2z so he will have the cash flow cushion when he stops -1 production. Drilling -1z will be a lot longer than the Portland side track so HHDL may have production consent before it is finished.

Building a new cellar for HH-3 etc will be fiddly if drilling AND producing from the same pad but it's not a major piece of work TBH

One thing for sure - having finally got the rig neither he (nor BDF) will want to see it go to another operator or back to the yard - I'm sure there are plans to keep it at HH until they can move it to the Isle of Wight or Dunsfold

"The rig will leave after HH2-2z, at which point we'll know who's the troll that can actually read the company RNS... Deal?"

we're missing the obvious - HHDL are well behind their 2019 plan announced earlier this year - with immense effort they 've got the planning through and so are back on that track. What they need before getting OGA production consent (and a new CPR) is hard information on the Portland reservoir and horizontal production. The cores give them item one and now they have to go full speed ahead to prove the horizontal flow rates.

IMHO they decided to keep the Kimm flowing as insurance and for the cash flow, cut another core in the Portland as the elog results were a potential game-changer and get on with HH-2z ASAP

Nothing to stop them coming back when -2z is flowing and kicking off -1z in the Kimmeridge and coring that if they want to

Too many people on here believe an RNS is a set-in -stone - plan. When drilling it's a snap-shot in time. 24 hours later it may be all change - to quote Harold Macmillan "Events, dear boy, events..."

correct

TBH I think I'll drop out of here for a while until there is some solid news.

Nothing is really going to change and I'll eave double faced crook etc the pleasure of ramping to make 0.1p to their own devices

IIRC HH-1 was near vertical until they got through the Portland pay zone and then started to build angle quite quickly

HH-2 seems to be near vertical all the way - it is clearly designed to be as close as possible to HH-1 so that the Portland core will be a direct read-across. This means they can re-calibrate the HH-1 e logs etc with hard data and helps nail a lot of the uncertainties in the last CPR

his discussion is madness - I think everyone is caught up with different depths quoted at different times

I suspect the issue might be the elevation of the KB (ie height of the rig floor above ground) that has got into (or not) the stated depths - that would be 20-40 ft error

that line will be sending aviation fuel FROM Southampton to Gatwick etc - HHDL need to send their crude the other way

I guess they might be able to piggy back on the EXXON application and pay to run a small line in the same corridor at the same time

It amazes me that people on here spend hours working up weird scenarios based on lack of updates in routine ops.

There is no reason for HHDL , or any other oil company, to say "we're still selling oil" every day of every week. They only have to notify significant CHANGES

So they don't have to tell people that the sun came up today (and yesterday) at HH or what colour threads Sanderson has pulled on today

We are effectively in a production phase which will last 20-25 years - most companies report annual performance to their shareholders so get used it.....................

This had better be good news

technically it sounds fantastic and maybe explains why they never saw any Portland water but until they see the rocks it's all based on a new elog interpretation from the USA - and that's not precise science

If the core it doesn't confirm the results the price will crater (again) as the last RNS will be seen as a pump & dump.

they should have waited until they got the hard data IMHO before saying anything...........

https://drillordrop.com/2019/10/11/interview-angus-oil-man-backs-gas-for-the-future/

is easier to read

This is very very very encouraging - fractured reservoirs produce water at the drop of a hat

"This is purely speculation but SS may have one eye on Oil sales going into HHDL. If this were to happen and it's a big IF presumably HHDL partners would agree to distribute Oil sale revenues after taking HH running costs into account.
Obviously a long shot but thought i'd put it out there for consideration..."

not sure what you are getting at DSFAT

The oil is sold daily by HHDL who are the Operator (it almost certainly sells Alba's share as well - otherwise Alba would have to send a tanker)

The money goes in to HHDL accounts as income

Every month it's offset against outgoings just as in any other business

Month end HHDL either transfer any surplus to UKOG& Alba or send them a cash call (subject to farm-ins etc) to cover any short-fall

The oil cash is NOT ring fenced to pay off loans etc - that is cooperate thing between UKOG and YL etc

"Now 6.67 BILLION shares in issue.
You can't count to 100 million from the day you are born until the day you die!"

Look onth e bright side Daltrey

When you're in your canoe up the Amazon and the head hunters come you will have something in common to talk about...............

"we will need a positive RNS to lift it. "

I've been invested 5 years in here and I can say that 99% of RNS sink the price

Even important steps forward like the Rig and enen more important Planning permission haven't done a think for UKOG

You are right B2H - it's not that JTP is invested in the company it's the fact he only brings up the past. What DOES he bring to Angus now? You can get better drillers elsewhere - the're not using him for Saltfleetby, - if he paid back the loan and severed all links formal and informal I'd be very very very happy

In a perfect world I'd like to know what happened over the deal with Lenigas on Lidsey etc but suspect that'll be one of those tales told in a dark bar a long way from here.

The BoD have to realise that his name is absolute poison for future development of the Company

Sanderson managed over several years to ease DL into pace and quiet (tho not yet fully erased - GL needs to do the same

To be expected I'm afraid - we're back to drilling not producing (I know but its the drilling everyone is interested in)

Running casing normally means a clean up wiper trip, a cement job, a wait, drill out, clean up, pressure test - each one is about 8-10 hours

Once they start coring they core 30/60/90 ft and then have to pull the whole sting out 90 ft at a time. They look at the core and decide quit, run another core or drill ahead - still means an other trip to bottom at 90ft per sand. I'd guess 12-15 hours a round trip

So expect a lot of start stop activity into 2020

given only 4 people turned up I think they'd a have a very good case for saying none of us a damn.....................

There are pages every night on here about how the BOD need to communicate and when they try and so something..................

Wizard - I bought in almost exactly 5 years back at 1.17 - by mid 2017 I sold out 25% around 8 on the basis that a 7X gain had to be recognised. Since then its been depressing - not because I think its a bad share - I think the company is well run but history is terrible drag here - I think i'll see a profit again but it won't be for a couple of years

On the other hand of course I have my Argos stock bought at the same time - at circa 10p.............

Phil - - you're right of course it makes much more sense to develop onshore rather than offshore for many reasons - some of which you've given. The Problem is they are not the same from a permission point of view.

I understand these days a N Sea well can be fully permitted in 3 months and it almost never takes more than 6 months and that's a very dependable number. Onshore........ Holmwood - 8-10 years and still not drilled ..... Planning permission for HH- a year plus (and I don't think Sanderson has got the recognition he deserves on that - must have been a very very scary process)

the problem is the decision process is not controlled, and the Company is totally in the hands of outside forces - Egdon's delay ?2 years? at Wressle is reputedly because ONE Councillor has a personal beef with the EA

Hard to make decent forecasts based on this sort of uncertainty

there are two main concerns to LTV here in my mind

One is the unbelievable timescales - UKOG are now drilling their 3rd well in 5 years and they are one of the better onshore UK performers. If you say 1 year for planning permission for each site going forward this is a very long drawn out timescale for relatively (by offshore standards) low rewards, Income is eroded by office costs, delays...................

Second is scaleability - can they scale up fast enough to build a decent business? Looking back I'm trying to think of a singe UK Onshore company that ever made it big........ I'm beginning to think that in a year or so I'll get my money back here but I can't see a reason anyone would invest long term onshore UK TBH