Member Info for Mirasol

"What is going to happen in 2026? Is it simply a year of preparation. Signing contracts establishing infrastructure in the Falklands etc etc..."

You're right I think - a steady stream of contracts, apointments, the FPSO heading for refit. All very worthy and hopefully incident free. Hard to see anything earthshaking on the horizon. SP will drift slowly upwards.

The day traders will be desperate to generate spikes around each announcement but I supect most PI's are in it for the long haul again - and any institution will be the same.

"Ocelot, do you know why the accounts of all the subsidiaries (including HHDL) are months over their already extended overdue deadlines when, presumably, those numbers would have been incorporated in the audited group accounts?"

My guess is that these companies are so interwined and their "assets" are in fact loans to and from each other (the Virgin companies are like that IIRC) that if the auditors at any one of them has a problem then the others can't (or daren't) produce their accounts because they'd have to note a possible massive impairment/writeoff. One brick fails and the whole lot will tumble down

"The didn’t default on their debt."

of course not - they just haven't paid what they contractually owe

NEOGEO - can you explin why the Interim Chairman is invisible?

He hasn't signed a single statement in months.

Is he actually alive??

"His involvement is therefore reassuring and, to me, reads as a subtle but clear indication that the debt discussions are progressing constructively."

To me it indicates that there's no-one else there. Where the hell is the Chairman?? When a company goes bust it's normally the Finace guys who turn out the lights and take the keys back to the landlord.

" he sending us a clear message that everything is going to be ok…"

Fine for him, fine for Trafigura - but for the PI's????? No-one can tell me how ANGS are goingto pay off the debt, invest in workovers and new wells and then build a company that is growing. They clearly can't produce enough to meet their targets, the debt increases and Trafigura exert more and more day to day control

"Analyst Comment, that of ANGS's Nomad)"

And so totally believable - you could put your house on it Ocelot.

"I’ll concede this feels different…..in the past we had plenty of optimistic words and very little lender alignment"

That's becasue now ANGS are effectively run and owned by Trafigura - the Chairman hasn't been heard from in months and the Finance guy signs the paperwork. There's probably a weekly call where he gets his orders. The workers slog on, still being paid, as there is nowhere else to go. The shareholders can't do anything because the shares are suspended and there has been no update on the various deals they are supposed to be doing.

And anyone who thinks this wil get better is in for a very very nasty shock. Several millions of debt have to be recovered by Trafigura - at the best there is going to be a UKOG sized wave of dilution of the PI's

They haven't paid what they owe however you wantto try and put it.

09-Dec-25 0.1467 mcum per day

10-Dec-25 0.1154

11-Dec-25 0.1334

12-Dec-25 0.1216

13-Dec-25 0.1406

14-Dec-25 0.1415

15-Dec-25 0.1401

16-Dec-25 0.1381

17-Dec-25 0.1244

18-Dec-25 0.1192

19-Dec-25 0.0959

20-Dec-25 0.1079

30 day rolling average m cu m per day. Production has been decling in fits & starts since mid November. The short term decline curve looks like those we've seen in the past (pre-compressor). Presumably they're seeing the same issues - hence the workover plan

James

last week you claimed that no-one ever provided hard numbers. I gave you the CPR forecasts on the 19th

Care to comment now?

"This doesn’t read like a lender preparing to enforce — it reads like one trying to maximise value by keeping Angus alive and producing."

Of course - and when the debt gets high enough they just step forwards and say - "you us £x mm - you can't pay so we're taking over the asset and will cancel the debt - tough about the other shareholders".

"If Trafigura had lost confidence in Angus and believed that forcing the company into insolvency was the best route forwards for them "

As has been previously discussed a number of times putting ANGS into insolvency is not an option - they would immediately lose the Licence. It would have to be some sort of lash-up with a token operating company , probably employing much the same workforce as currently. Why bother?

Trafigura hold all the cards , they tell ANGS exactly what to do and just sit there watching the debts build up. Meanwhile the PI's are stuffed, frozen into a company they can't sell while their interests aren't looked after by anyone.

"Because it was stolen by communists. On January 1, 1976, Venezuela officially nationalized its oil industry, replacing foreign oil companies with PDVSA."

It wasn't - Chavez only came to power in 1998.

The president from 1974 to 1979, Carlos Andrés Pérez was a right winger who proved less generous with hand-outs than previously. Despite initially rejecting liberalization policies, his economic agenda was later focused on cutting subsidies, privatizations, and legislation to attract foreign investment.

Western companies worked in Venezuela for the next 20 years+.

I can see it will increase confidence but "quickly increase" I doubt. Anyone investing in the next few months knows that the next CRITICAL item is the first development drilling results - not even the start of drilling. Then First Oil then actual production performance. That's 18-24 months away.

Until then it's going to be very quiet (hopefully).

So the day traders aren't going to be interested altho' they'll play the small spikes around around any update RNS. I think you'll get a steady drizzle of new investors, some small institutions and believers on here topping up - it may be a lot better place to be than some other oily stocks. But it will drift slowly upward is my guess.

" David Mirzai of SP Angel, Angus's Nomad, who is well placed to know what he is talking about"

Or rather a paid employee of a company which is employed by Angus .who have a definite commercial interest in Angus

Is he a colleague of yours Ocelot?

James mentions the CPR's. "The Wingas FDP and CPR set out decline profiles, remaining reserves and cash flow assumptions in black and white. If you disagree with them, challenge the assumptions with numbers instead of vague language."

The 2020 CPR (rebased to actual start of production) said that in October 2025 we had a 90% chance of producing circa 8.84 mmscfd - in fact we produced around 4.3 mmscfd

The 2023 CPR said we had 90% chance of producing 9 mmscfd in the same month we didn't even reach50% of that forecast

Since production start we have only exceeded the 90% forecast in one month for both CPR's - in general we've run at 55-60% of the P90

No point in mentioning the P50 or Most Likely cases as they 're just out of this world.

"Mirasol seems to have decided that he will criticise Angus regardless of how the company performs"

Make a list of two columns - historic good events and bad events for ANGS - you'll run out of paper on the bad side I'm afraid

Lets start

SP 6/9/22 2.72p approx

SP today suspended at 0.22p - so the value of the company is a tenth of what it was 3 years ago - if you could sell - which you can't

Is that a positive or a negative James?

Interesting comment Ocelot - as you say the money will not be used for debt repayment but for the workover. And debt will increase as production is curtailed as per the RNS.

Also they have decided to do the work in the winter, when gas prices are historically higher, rather than defer to summer, when they are generally lower.

Can you say what effect this will have on the amount of debt the company will have by say Easter?

Stock - yes they'll take a hit - but that can't be avoided if they want to keep things operating long term.

What intrigues me was the increase they managed for a couple of weeks in late November when they actually got over 0.16 mcum a day once or twice - that hadn't been seen since Jan 25. They then had some issue on the 26th and it fell back to the normal post -compressor installation rates. Without any info on fluids and pressures it's impossible say what happened in either case but it is interesting.