Member Info for Mirasol

Bubblepoint and Mirasol (same person?) - post nothing but the same negative rubbish. - we're not and if you go back we've been right and the rampers have been wrong

1. They love to tell us that the debt has increased - no RNS shows this. - exactly they won't say exactly how much they owe and to who - all we knos is that its a greadt deal of money

2. They love it when production drops for one day even though the trend is upward. -it isn't "upwards" - look at thr history - they're noe producing about half of what they did a coupleo fyears ago

3. They criticise the ability of the team.

a) Called for a booster but the said it cost too much

b) Called for velocity strings but then said Angus had installed the wrong type, no evidence for this!

c) Criticised the plan to dig a new well and the teams capability (yet they have successfully dug three)

Ah the team - the people who re-entered the wrong well at Brockham, the ones who drilled the most expensive well onshore UK ever and never gave us a final cost and it achileved almost nothing. The people who thought they could use second hand kit onshore UK..... they are byeword for stupidity

4. Takes no account of Gas prices, future production or drop off of Hedges. - which tehy never provide any information on

"They have good cash and a new loan agreement at lower rates. "

OK OTM - can we quote the RNS where they say that? Or did you just make it up?

"Negative regardless of what the RNS actually says"

But the RNS's never tell the full story. They have NEVER said how much is owed, they never told us what the sidetrack cost, they never mentioned who or what the RTO was about. They've never told us what has happend to the CEO. They NEVER give any production guidance - as the big boys do.

If you beleive the RNS UKOG have Billion barrels in the Weald, PPP are in fine shape, UJO's US venture has been a rip-roaring success, Reabold will be drilling West Newton q2 2026 and, of course, ANGS will get a fabulous deal inthe USA.

All of those are totally false.

Like most small oilers on AIM they never really lie but they go out of their way to avoid telling anyone an the full story. It's ALWAYS spun poitively - unil severla months later when they may have to tell the truth.

I should add that these are extemely common issues with almost all new fields. Unless you have a 3 month EWT (Extended Well Test) you are basing your development on the exploration well data you have plus experience.

"We still know nothing about the acquisition target assets apart from their overall location, but discussions have been continuing now for more than 8 months so it certainly looks as if they must be pretty attractive."

And not a SINGLE leak or indication of who they're supposedly talking to - AMAZING!!! Anyone might think it never happened.................

"Using worst-case reservoir decline "

As we keep pointing out worst case decline was supposed to have been captured by the CPR P90 figures - and they've never reached anything like those. even now they're 60% of the P90's. This is a reservoir thatthey got(and the peopel who did the CPR's) got completely wrong. It happens occasionaly

Monday's numbers are back down to where they were before they started the work at 0.1207 - the 30 average is only where they were a year ago.

The exploration wells have proved reservoir presence., hydrocarbons etc.

The issue is always the test interval. Flow the well for 24 hiurs and you've tested a circle of maybe 200m. Test it for a month and its maybe a kilometre radius.

You also normally don't flow expwells at rhe same rate as a production well. You don't have the right kit on board.

Here there is also the change that the expl wells were vertical but the production wells are horizontal.

Personally i think it'll be ok but untill they drill the wells and test them there are still unknowns.

As BP keeps pointing out the liquids drop out due the pressure/temperature conditions in the reservoir. This will continue and can only get worse as you produce more and the reservoir pressure continues to drop.

If they have only done a simple acid wash (which appears to be the case) all they've done is to clean up some of the pathways inbetweeen the rock grains near the well bore. That should lead to a short-term uptick in gas production as gas will be able to flow more easily to the well. However it doesn't change the physics. Fluids will continue to drop out, and if they pull too hard that will eventually totally impede any gas flow. The well will choke itself to death. Even a new well will suffer the same problems - unless they can identify a part of the field that has so far been untapped and has near original pressures. There is zero evidence that this is the case or that ANGS have the knowledge or ability to identify such an area should it exist.

After they installed the compressor it took 3 months before we saw any serious steady improvment - that lasted for 4-5 months and then the decline set in again.

17-Jan-26 0.0906 m.cum perday

18-Jan-26 0.0917

19-Jan-26 0.0912

20-Jan-26 0.1370

21-Jan-26 0.1814

22-Jan-26 0.1809

23-Jan-26 0.1806

24-Jan-26 0.1633

Thirtyday running average 0.1318 m.cum perday. Intervention has raised production back towards early 2025 numbers again (as the compressor did). Critical issue is what levels they can maintain now the flush production seems to have gone through.

"Why are Navitas so cagey about contracts ?"

they are cagey about everything. They seem to take the view that their job is to get on with running the business and don't emply a vast herd of leeches in PR, media and Image. Uk & US companies are different - which is one reason people in the City of London makes so much money and the PI's so little.

I think you'd find German, French and Far Eastern companies have the same attitude.

"but do you perceive any genuine chance of major difficulties getting to first oil or do you see it as quite straightforward?"

Drilling and completinghte wells should eb straightforward. there is always a risk on refitting the FPSO - supply chain on parts, problems in the yard etc etc

The biggest single unknown is just how well the wells will perform on extended flow over a period of weeks & months. I don't think any of the well tests on Sea Lion so far were very long only a few days instead of 1-3 months.

"Looks like there is no rig sharing - either on the way down, or in the South Falklands Basin."

Don't want to risk any delays. And on an 11 well contract the Mob/Demob is spread widely - not as if it had to be lumped on to say 2 exploration wells.

Phase 1 (Northern Development Area): This initial stage involves drilling 11 subsea wells. Six of these are expected to be pre-drilled and completed before "first oil".

So that fits very well

Certainly looks probable - satrting drilling in summer as well - quite wise

"a HUGE gas discovery that may come into it's own in the future. "

What's that?

Johnson has never been tested - it had IIRC a long column of gas shows but no thick sands and poor reservoir. Quite a lot of gas in place but an absolute nightmare to produce. And where will you take the gas? An LNG FPSO will cost billions and the FI have always been adamant that they won't have any refining/processing facillities on shore. Plenty of oil propects instead.

Over on ECO everyone seems to believe they're going to take out/merge with JHI to put the JHI shareholders out of their misery.

The issue for a very large company is tha taking over RKH only gets them a non-operated, relatively small part of the action.

Navitas hold all the cards and I can't see them selling for less than a vast sum.

As previously discussed the political angle will probably keep most national oil companies away and those who operate in Argentina. RKH will be attractive to a mid sized outfit looking to spread their risks into an area with upside and with a very solid legal framework.

Whilst it is possible to make money by trading very quickly in the pump & dump you're normally hammered by the spreads.

"1. Better funding terms from the lender, most probably finalised once flow rates determined ."

Ah yes - when you don't pay your bills for months your lender then offers you a better deal at lower rates...

Finance 1.01 - NOT