Member Info for Minesinthemine

Chilling, your response is exactly what I mean. There are no promises for news at the end of the month. That was a press article / interview where CF said he was ‘hopeful’. It was not an RNS or a commitment. So what happens if/when we pass into November and there is no news.

The board and CF in particular need to cautious with any press and any dates. And if we are able without causing a situation where all our negotiations are being done in the open we should be releasing news via RNS’s. I would argue that if we have made positive changes to cash flow, partner contracts etc... to optimise cash flow then that is price sensitive info and we should announce it in a positive way. If we have not managed to optimise and we will run out of cash before Mid-March then that is also price sensitive and should be announced. Plus given the negativity even if we are just on plan we should announce that we have positively executing the first phase of cost mgmt. we shouldn’t have the CEO going to the press setting false expectations on dates for news, berating PIs and BBs and a PR team not more firmly rebutting bad articles like the ‘going private’ article.

To summarise there is no commitment on news by end of the month and we need to stop fake news and need SXX and in particular our CEO to focus on the job in hand and those around him to manage positive reporting smarter.

It has been 1 month since since the Sept 17th announcement/call. At that point no viable financing offer to move ahead with JPMC. However lots of actions for the board. We need some clarity on what is going on.
1. Progress update on the restructuring. Have some positive things come from the prioritisation? Have some partners helped more than intended? Is MTS progress still moving on? What has happened in the month? We had the Qatar supply agreement, but what about anything else? Even just formal confirmation of heads that have been rescued, the resources and types being kept on etc.. More than one partner in discussion... etc..
2. More positive press and noises. Having CF spout out about PIs and BB’s, misled investors and lack of government support is not good press. When bad press is out firm rebuttals would be useful inc context. The recent ‘private’ comments I am hoping could be in relation to cCprnish Lithium just being crowdfunded and being dismissive of the markets . In short, how can CF complain about PIs and BBs when there is no news other than the press articles constantly painting doom and gloom.
3. 5 months to go, remind everyone there is 5 months to go. Not the press interview where CF states he is ‘hopeful’ of some news by end of October. Again setting expectations in the press when only weeks ago the positioning was all about working through priorities for cost mgmt

Bottom line, the company has never hit a financial date so has a bad track record in that respect. Now more than ever they need to be careful with dates and expectations and managing at least ‘some positive press or we may as well all sleep walk to administration in March. Whilst CF picks up another 6 mths salary. We need POSITIVE actions from CF and he along with the board needs to earn that salary, be respectful to PIs that got SXX this far, leverage every relationship he has and the team need to manage the press relations far far better.

Short version. What has happened this month? we have 5 more left to get a deal. Spend time on that rather than giving the press more ammunition. Focus please.

As an aside. If a ‘partnership’ came in claiming to help drive the mine, all Shareholders approved and they took 51%. Could they not then simply choose to take private? (Notwithstanding any potential legal action from the 49%)

Given the Qatari’s have investment in the mine at stake, could they not simply be signing a supply agreement in the hope that it attracts other investors. I.e. Continue to demonstrate there is demand for the product. Rather than the implication that they themselves will provide additional investment.

Basically there is a long way to run on the funding, 5 months and 1 week according to the 17th Sept call. It’s clear there have been actions taken by the board as per the call to reduce outgoings and prioritise spend. Review of various different options for funding. Let’s hope it’s addressed much sooner and the speculation of an announcement by the end of the month holds true.

No doubt CF will also be in the office complaining about BB’s speculating on what’s next, but he knows one sure way to fix that and it isn’t another positive expectation RNS claiming ‘planned funding by debt’ or interview in the papers, we need confirmation of a deal done. I don’t necessarily think that the first deal or a quick deal would be the best deal, but equally as with every other financing stage running the clock down is not going to result in a good deal. IMHO, a deal in 2019 is needed, but a deal in October unless it makes good sense isn’t mandatory. Just hope something actually gets sorted this time and news doesn’t leak it to his buddies at Citi. I like every other LTH would appreciate a nod though to help recover losses from our support through the end initial phases.

GLA

I may be wrong but I think someone posted that if your shorts are open when they go into administration that whilst the shorter wouldn’t owe anyone a penny, it would take 6mths to get their money from the people who loaned them the shares. Therefore they could be closing shorts as they have made enough and think the end in nigh.

FYI. Not de-ramping, still praying for a white knight but as with the SXX journey we often think we are moving up, but we’re actually just standing upside down......
GLA

We can only talk history and this looks like a leak. I am now beyond seriously worried. This I now believe is dead. I am not a deramper I am a LTH who is now pretty much wiped out.

Fully expect a shocking RNS tomorrow and 2p on opening bell.

Unless I am mistaken, the JPMC RCF contract remains in place until 31st Oct or mutually terminated. Obviously the bond raise failed and is now cancelled as per the RNS/CF conf call. Whilst some talks can go on there can be no concrete discussion with other parties whilst under the RCF contract. Therefore the SP and indeed partner progress is likely to bumble on until Nov. And I hate to say it having leveraged myself significantly in this share, that any partnership or JV will likely be so punitive in the short term that as other post this is a 10yr recovery for me. Do I believe a Sirius Minerals owned mine will happen, no. Do I believe the mine will be built yes. Have I sold out no. Will I sell out yes. I believe that between no and March there will likely be some rumours (and real discussions) will partners that will give the SP a bounce. And when it does I’ll jump. I look at my balance in HL and think about how foolish I have been but that’s life. I just think the finance ratio to debt serviceability is too high. Why I never saw that before is because I was deluded. I hope I am not now and that the bounce does happen but the increase in shorts is clearly worrying. Roll on 6p when I can reduce my loss into the high 70%’s.

Also being a realist (not a deramper) why the hell should the government step in to save shareholders. The mine will get built just that I won’t own any of it. Any number of investors can be requesting guarantees for projects of various scales where things have gone wrong. They may have all driven jobs and taxes to varying degrees. But it’s a private venture. Yes we qualify for an Government guarantee but based on the financials and build risk of the project they aren’t going to offer it. And rightly so despite the fact I’ve lost LOTS of money.

Everyone is happy to have their own opinion and nobody on this board is any more in the know than anyone else. But some people with more financing knowledge who tried explaining that this was potentially a risk to far we certainly ignored by me. I hate admitting I was wrong but I was. I didn’t know what I was doing. Got caught up in the excitement and pride of building a UK company. And I’m happy to lose my pride before I lose my pants as I’ve lost the rest of my clothes already. Albeit there is equal chance that this goes to 2p before 6p and I’ve lost more. So fingers crossed for a good run of news post RCF contract cancellation.

My opinion (not that anyone should care) is that we are done. There will likely be partner discussions but at this stage any such terms would be seriously punitive or they would simply wait for administration. This will continue to be pumped and dumped by day traders as there may be valid reasons for optimism/spikes. But for your typical share holders (myself included) I can’t afford any more ostrich/head in sand and certainly don’t want to hear any more fluff from CF. I’m going to wait for a mini spike that I hope comes over the next month and try to exit with 10%.
Good luck to everyone. Health before wealth, but also common sense before anything CF says.

The phrase for today by Ninvestor.

HEALTH BEFORE WEALTH

It may be bad but it’s never that bad.

Given the current, potentially the largest issue a UK government has had to deal with and our timeline I seriously doubt IF the government will step in. Also even if they weren’t dealing with Brexit I do not believe they would step in either. We already went round the IFA previously and couldn’t secure.

My personal opinion is that there will be another issue at circa 7-8p for circa $300m, then through good mgmt and cost controls they will aim to stretch out into the New Year to get the bonds away. I guess doing this would also need some more negotiation with JPM to agree to funding us with additional dilution and would assume all these negotiations are ongoing.

Option 1. Bonds sold
Option 2. II or partnership(Strabag/others) or beggars bowl to Ginafor funds to defer going bang
Option 3. Share Issue to retail shareholders
Option 4. Wind down ops until markets are better for bonds sale
Option 5,6,7,8 etc..... there will be lots more options than those above but for me personally I understand the reasons behind pulling the bonds, but can’t see a fundamental difference coming before we need cash.

I do sincerely hope that things get resolved sooner and without more shareholder pain, but given the timeline fear this is increasingly unlikely as a leach day progresses. (Caveat being the clock on the re-positioning for bonds isn’t due to start until early Sept hence based on the companies own feedback they are not off schedule and the real fun starts next week.)

GLA.

I still am somewhat wary based on our previous fund raises that the SP rise will continue to support another smaller cash raise via dilution with offering at sub 10p. This small raise would support cash flow to push the Bonds requirement out another qtr. I have no idea how this would affect the JPM deal but given how adept out BoD have been at having alternatives, I can’t help but think that may be where we are heading? Obviously nothing but history to back this up and Investor Relations have towed the same line that the bonds will be taken back to the market in Sept and were pulled due to market conditions but still have doubts based on history and the current flux Brexit/Trade Wars.

If the comments made about an increase in PIs rather than IIs, then this too gives me some concern.

I don’t want a knuckle crack for questioning the BoD, but the previous fund raises have never been delivered as the original option. We are already on at least Option two for this one. The shorts aren’t dramatically reducing and in fact crept up again.

From the boards is seems that there are plenty of PIs like myself, severely underwater who got caught up in the excitement (ok greed) as the SP climbed over the last 4 years. However the buyers coming in at 7–11p in recent weeks I guess would happily take 30-100% gains pre any funding announcements in Sept and I personally can’t see these SP rises continuing or indeed being held.

But like most PI LTHs I read on this board I am more optimistic than pessimistic and have more of a fear of missing out than losing it all.

Not deramping, just pondering what some of the ‘alternative’ options may be should we fail to get bonds away in September as anything other than some form of funding essentially means the mine build stops until funding issues are addressed.

So much volatility due to the trade wars. The ‘expected’ Fed rate cut not until mid-late Sept and a general state of flux until US elections in Nov 2020. However none of that should change the fundamentals of the mine having 100 years or fertiliser ready to support a growing population.

The timing that we need the funding by however is massively influenced by the ongoing trade wars. My fear is some kind of painful short-term high cost dilution to try and get us through another fiscal period but given the current SP each dilution is more painful than the last. I don’t think that the government will even come close to any kind of bail out, Brexit is the single most important thing the politicians are dealing with and whilst clearly sensible to raise profile of SXX with MPs, it is a private venture that will succeed, but may so by wiping out current investors.

In short major risk ahead with the fortunes of current investors determined by bond sale, but the mine will be built whatever happens in the short term. I just sincerely hope any deal struck is beneficial for all parties.

Also, I think talk of much more progress in the SP without news is somewhat fanciful. Given the current markets, without news I’d be happy to keep most of last weeks gain but expect a drop on Tuesday morn. (Yes I feciddd to keep most of my holding and ride the gamble with the rest of you, GLA)

This is the same as all the other RNSs though which spelled out their plan. My point this morning was a simple one. In each of the fund raises we had and announced a plan. That plan was never executed either as proposed or on time and compromises, some significant were required to achieve funding. Whilst we are now at the end of the funding phases (assuming on time/budget construction) should the Bonds not sell, there are no other options than bail out/takeover. Until this weeks RNS I had faith that this time we’d execute the plan. Now I think we won’t be able to and alternative plans are severely punitive that’s assuming there is an option.

I’m going to try and time the bounce, but personally for me the risk vs reward is too great. I will secure a loss and look for something else. I really do wish everyone well and hope the locals continue to benefit from the mine.
Good luck all.

Fred, amongst all other I really hope things come off for you.

Being honest after the previous fund raises, I’m now more of the mindset, “imagine the drop when CF announces that what he’s been telling all the investors is not possible”. This has been the case with each of fund raises. However I kept the faith as there was still opportunity of long term return. I carried on buying as I believed in the project, but this last announcement just cements it for me that we have never been able to execute our preferred funding option, the compromises have increased each time. However this time we are out of options. I’m accepting of my failed gamble and would rather leave with something. I simply cannot see how or why bonds will be sold in 4-6 weeks time.

I truly wish all LTHs the best and will be happy for you all of this comes off. For me, enough is enough and I can’t afford to lose everything and will look for another investment opp, but certainly will be taking a less risky option this time.
GLA

My opinion is that a bail out is the only option. However why would Gina bail us out. She could just write off her current investment and then take over when we are dead.

Basically dilution not an option. Each investor, PI or otherwise would need to provide a minimum of their entire current holding value as the requirement would be more than $500m. We’d need enough money to make enough progress such that lending options are more attainable to take us to completion. $500m was bond sales for $2.5Bn fund access, dilution does not provide that access and the only approved mechanism to access funds required has now been pulled until Sept.

I made the decision over night that I am going to take a very large 67% paper loss. I’ve been in 5yrs but averaged up along the way off the back of CF’s failed plans for St1 funding and St2. And now to me it looks like there will be no funding. I am sure there will be a mine but unless current PIs invest in the new venture once SSX has died we won’t see the rewards.

All my own opinion but this is company is finished. Nobody wanted the bonds. The market won’t significantly have shifted by the time we run out of money. Dilution isn’t viable and any new investor may as well takeover and own fully than support us by dilution.

This was a gamble, it was my choice and fortunately unlike roulette I can at least get some of my money back.

Good luck the the rest of the LTH’s.

Thanks verdeceleste so the injection of $.75Bn would get us through roughly to late 2020 and based on progress and a (hopefully) a firmer time to Poly4 / time to revenue we’d be in a better position to finance the remainder of the build?

I guess what I was pointing at is coming back in asking the PIs who are the majority of holders to fund a substantial amount roughly equivalent to their existing investment isn’t going to work. It needs an injection of new investor or a new partner (or even Gina again!) to help progress.

Thanks

FosterE understand that, but for me I consider the debt raise dead. The assumption that things will change in a little over a month seems highly unlikely. The US / China trade wars, Brexit and the like will not be resolved before we run out of money.

I am making the assumption that the JPMC funding facility will not be realised, hence what are the options? Equity? My question was given the numbers involved is this really a realistic option or is takeover more likely?

Really like help from some of the seasoned posters on this to understand if more dilution is even a likely resolution?
We need total ~3x the current market cap to complete the mine and I guess we might get away with requiring less from dilution as if we were able to make substantial build progress, the nearer completion we get the easier I assume it is the get loan/funding?

However given the amount of $ needed for the raise, it may be unrealistic to expect that to come from existing investors. New investors would need a roadmap of expected returns which given the increased dilution would ‘diluted’ and may not look attractive.

Hence based on the above, why is either a take over hostile,partnership or otherwise or worse, one of the big boys just waits for us to die not more of a reality.

From what I can see we have continued with dilution to get to where we are, at some point you can no longer taste any of the success due to dilution so what’s the point.

Note:Not deramper, heavily invested, concerned and looking for help from those better understanding financing to provide some crumbs of comfort.

Thank you in advance, good look to all LTHs.

So nobody else is allowed an opinion other than everything is sweetness and light. I hold 1.4m shares and need this mine to be a success but am still smarting from the share award last week, but if I don’t pay the board on the back and believe everything they say I’m a troll! The board are paid to run the company and have already been handsomely rewarded. As Myo states, the construction progress is great, but the fact that the board get another pat on the back with a major finance milestone yet to be achieved is poorly timed at best and for me disgusting.

Maybe the boards share reward last week was proactive to insulate them from another dose of dilution for the $500m. Wouldn’t put it past CF, in fact coming to expect these kind of things from him now. I’ll believe the debt option only when I see it.

Bottom line. I came around on St2 drop as at least the shares were worth something rather than nothing and we took the best, potentially only deal on the table to keep the company going. Everyone invested in the success of the mine was in the same boat, contracts wouldn’t have been fulfilled, jobs wouldn’t have arose and the BoD would have the same impact on their shareholding’s as the rest of us.

However this completely takes the xxxx. CF and the BoD have reward enough in the current state that they have jobs, are getting paid and have various shares allocated to them. This reward at the very least should have been deferred until St2 is fully realised.

I understand this isn’t fraud, this is just business, but you can definitely see that CF is a finance man, not a moral fibre in his body.

In the grand scheme of things this is nothing to him, and it would be nice if he put it in a trust for locals. I know the company itself does a lot but this would be a personal contribution.

Still doesn’t mean i’m not annoyed about both the timing and size of the reward based on progress.