London South East were delighted to welcome Incanthera to our April Investor Webinar (6.04.2021), where Chairman Tim McCarthy and CEO Dr Simon Ward presented and took questions. Watch the full interview here.
Good share price movement. Confirmation of rig contractor for Block XX should correct the market value back to cash and asset value (~4.38p). Discovery at any Block XX drill will provide quick revenue and a decent profit for share holders getting in now, though the history of MATD will eliminate exaggerated sentiment to the SP. Heron will be the first Appraisal well for PM. Hopefully we'll here an update this month. Good luck all.
Should see this rise to it's rightful value (cash + assets) of 4.38p. Still a couple of unknowns with regards to confirmed rig tender for Block XX, once this has been confirmed within an RNS and taking into account a potential 16MMBO discovery at the first well (Heron) less than 1KM away from a producing oil field >50% COS I can see this rising back over 5p.
Post mortem analysis always trumps 3D seismic and for that reason I would love to see the permits in place for raptor, proven migration of light oil @ ~1400m. Block XIX found commercial oil on their 2nd drill following a post mortem, I didn't expect to find anything from 2 Wildcats hence the dissapointment of postponing Block XX drills, I am happy to see the 7M spent on SL resulted in some technical success. A lot has gone wrong for MATD but for 2019 (once rig contractor confirmed) probability states we'll be in a very strong position.
It is a 7 month drilling window. End of April / early May commencement, end November / start of December completion. We now play the waiting game to recieve the postivie RNS with confirmation of Fox-1 permits, chosen rig contractor and post mortem analysis. The asset value of the company will soon be realised. Only an oil strike will enable the Share Price to rise above the balance sheet value. 2 appraisal wells will be desirable given a 50%-75% COS to investors. Let's hope we don't see any further fundraising to dilute investments, I couldn't see this happening especially at this share price, and with the company being aware the share price is currently 2p undervalued from company current and non-current assets. 4 month wait for which I'm hopeful to see on track operational updates in the meantime. Good luck all.
There's more cash than expected probably because we haven't needed to spend any contingency (well testing) and than the MMs expected (holding the SP at 5.1p prior to WH announcement), market value was accurate to the previous half year report and cash budgets. The company's share price amounts to 2.94p on cash alone and 4.79p inc. assets. Taking into account G&A and PSC licences which will cost over the year we should be seeing the Share Price rise over 4p once realised. Matad has taken knock after knock, this was overvalued Feb 2017, sentiment has slowly diminished to Zero following SL duster and now we are undervalued on total assets. Now makes sense to purchase.
Exactly. $25m in cash, $15m in non-current assets (exploration, property, plant, equipment). Amounts to £31m. This company is undervalued removing any sentiment. As I said MMs know what they're doing. This will either rise on realisation of market value or they'll use the operational updates (permits/rig contractors) as reason to rise this back to it's true value.
Wise decision proselenes. I guessed well with a Monday RNS shame about the news. The market also reflected the calcs of 5.1p (share Price) on assets alone. This should be 4.34p on current and non-current assets, watch this rise back to ~4p after a scare.
Yeah I can't see it being 12 hr drilling operations. It is mainly 24. The submissions for tender ended yesterday. Would be nice to hear an update next month following review and discussions with potential rig tenders. If WH comes back as a duster the total assets remaining will result in a 20% drop to the current share Price. I can't see this dropping much further, but this is AIM. I predict an RNS Monday next week to give a few days to analyse and report findings following TD (on the assumption that we meet TD by 30 days, Thursday).
In case it wasn't rhetorical. The resource potential was increased following a second assessment. The 290MMBO prediction was assessed closely to the seismic markers mapped and not over the ~1000m of stratigraphy within closure. PM took an average net to gross over the stratigraphy of 30% which resulted in a more accurate estimation of 480MMBO potential reserves.
Proselenes, I understand what you're saying regards the behaviours of the market but I think your predictions are exaggerated. We dropped 30% following a SL duster which is representative of the 7m lost down the pan. I believe we will be undervalued following a WH duster (if a WH duster) but this will quickly amend itself to be equivalent to the companies total assets. But we shall see soon. Here's hoping for some form of success technical or commercial for PM.
Proselenes if this drops to 1.9p then this share will be massively undervalued on both cash held and non-current assets. To me this is a good share to be in because the share has already taken the beating (hence the share price only dropping to 5.5p after SL duster).
If you're going to apply some logic to where this may fall then I'd look at what's left for funding in 2019.
Red Deer-1 ($2.9m)
Contingency well testing ($0.4m)
PSC Costs ($0.9m)
Well 4 ($2.0m)
Total = $20.1m
Non-current assets reported on the 30th June 2018 for exploration and evaluation + property, plant and equipment $15.751m.
Total = $36.851m
Total = £28.744m
Over 662,155,749 shares this gives us a share price of 4.34p. The share price was worth 5.1p alone based on total assets after an SL duster and yet we didn't reach this, in fact there as a little sentiment. I believe this is such a good share to be in right now because MB has arranged funding for the next year and the dilution has already happened. The only reason this will be reduced further is if another raising takes place. Personally, I can't see them doing this unless a technical success has been found and a farm-in partner requires a more substantial discovery. If this happens at WH-1 I wouldn't be surprised if they utilised the funding for Fox to appraise WH.
Cheers Ronin, my only comment would be that SL didn't take 73 days to drill...but that we were informed of the results 73 days after spud. They are two different things. I don't expect to hear anything until TD has been reached and analysis of the drill has been complete.
Not long to wait for news, good or bad. I suspect this will reach a floor of 5.5p and begin to bounce back >6p. The MMs will continue this cyclic movement until news is dropped.
As much as I would like this to rocket with buyers piling in ans possible leaks as we drill deeper, I suspect this is just the same as what happened on SL. They'll do a couple of small rises and drops until results are announced. Happy to be wrong.
Somm, SL reached TD at 2930m. Estimated 3350m. I suspect we'll hear something once TD has been reached. Though twitter updates have certainly had an influence albeit minor on the Share Price. I predict an RNS on Monday 26th November if progressing well as we have been told.
PEHSA, to further explain. The resource potential was increased following a second assessment. The 290MMBO prediction was assessed closely to the seismic markers mapped and not over the ~1000m of stratigraphy within closure. PM took an average net to gross over the stratigraphy of 30% which resulted in a more accurate estimation of 480MMBO potential reserves.
That's true. The core holes 1 deep (1200m) and 2 shallow in Block IV were not at the WH-1 site, however this data can be used to help map a drillable prospect. The oily fluid inclusions found within the core hole were also found in the outcrop sections featured across Block IV and V. A large source and reservoir outcrop has been mapped to 2D to a 4 way dip domal structure. This is a wildcat drill so should remain cautious that chances are we won't hit a commercial success, however all the ingredients required thus far exist therefore this is a better gamble than a usual frontier exploration. Most are searching for the charge which we've already proven. It is important to note that the find for oil in Mongolia would be extremely lucky if they hit on the 2nd drill in 7 years and I really do have my fingers crossed that this is the case but the hopeful reality for me is to achieve a technical success which can be used to appraise. A juggle of funds may very well be carried out over the winter season if this is the case to accomodate the change in strategy (WH-2 @ 60% COS is better than Fox-1 @ 25% - 30% COS). Permits are already in place and the drill will be cheaper. We shall see.