RE: What happens to the SP if25 Aug 2018 21:15
IGEEK,
The market reacts in the most unpredictable of ways so I can only give a logical opinion.
We currently have $35.1m in cash ($16.8m + $18.3m in placings), this is to fund the 6 well drill programme, for G&A and for the PSC licences. Snow Leopard costs ~$7m, therefore if we hit a duster then we will have ~$28.1m left for the funded drills, G&A and PSC licences (you could take a small chunk off for salaries and contingency purposes). So, this to be is what we should be worth in just cash alone. Calc - $28.1m x 0.78 = £21.9m.
The company however doesn't just have cash, it has an extension exploration portfolio. Worst case scenario. In July 2016 the company released it's final results with a net loss of $0.19m, exit notification from BG and confirmation of $10m funds to partially support the company in minimum operations on Blocks IV and V. A low point for PM and dropped to a share price of 1.7p with 287m shares in issue. This reaction priced Petro Matads exploration portfolio at that time at a tiny £5m.
If we add this to the cash accumulated we have a total of £26.9m, divide this by the 662m shares in issue and you have a share price of 4p. Now this has not factored the money accumulated from Bergen ($7.5m?) to carry out the 3D seismic in Block V and hasn't taken into account chance of success of the 5 drills still to follow.
So in conclusion, given the additional exploration assets under PMs portfolio and that Wild Horse if the next well up. I cannot see this falling below 5p (minimum) IF Snow Leopard was a duster. If the market took into account chance of success then we should actually be above the levels we're at today even after SL being a duster. We are currently undervalued and as mentioned before the market reacts in funny ways especially on volatile O&G companies and especially on AIM. All IMO of course. Hope this helps.