The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I don't think you're a million miles away. That is a great shout. Mike Buck has confirmed at each interview how conversations with Petro China have run smoothly and all is going to plan. Even in the audio on the 10th July 14 days prior to the RNS confirming the AGM notice we were in the final conversations to finalising a deal. Good post VerbierDave.
Quite right SuperRoty and hence the AGM meetings in the past have been held in December end of year. A couple of times this has drifted into the following year within Q1.
There are however additional matters which can be discussed at the AGM killing two birds with one stone to discuss the company's future vision with shareholders hence the tactical date following TD of SL-1. Potential discovery = Farm-In Partner.
Read more: Annual General Meeting (AGM) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/agm.asp#ixzz5PO138sd2
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Filet, the AGM notice in January 2018 I believe accounts for 2017, similarly the AGM notice in January 2016 accounts for 2015. The AGM for the 20th September was initially announced on the 24th July, this date has not changed. Therefore I believe this was deliberately set to take place following the estimated 70 day completion for SL-1 to discuss results. RNS released prior hopefully. The RNS released last Friday was a follow up of the AGM notice.
IGEEK,
The market reacts in the most unpredictable of ways so I can only give a logical opinion.
We currently have $35.1m in cash ($16.8m + $18.3m in placings), this is to fund the 6 well drill programme, for G&A and for the PSC licences. Snow Leopard costs ~$7m, therefore if we hit a duster then we will have ~$28.1m left for the funded drills, G&A and PSC licences (you could take a small chunk off for salaries and contingency purposes). So, this to be is what we should be worth in just cash alone. Calc - $28.1m x 0.78 = £21.9m.
The company however doesn't just have cash, it has an extension exploration portfolio. Worst case scenario. In July 2016 the company released it's final results with a net loss of $0.19m, exit notification from BG and confirmation of $10m funds to partially support the company in minimum operations on Blocks IV and V. A low point for PM and dropped to a share price of 1.7p with 287m shares in issue. This reaction priced Petro Matads exploration portfolio at that time at a tiny £5m.
If we add this to the cash accumulated we have a total of £26.9m, divide this by the 662m shares in issue and you have a share price of 4p. Now this has not factored the money accumulated from Bergen ($7.5m?) to carry out the 3D seismic in Block V and hasn't taken into account chance of success of the 5 drills still to follow.
So in conclusion, given the additional exploration assets under PMs portfolio and that Wild Horse if the next well up. I cannot see this falling below 5p (minimum) IF Snow Leopard was a duster. If the market took into account chance of success then we should actually be above the levels we're at today even after SL being a duster. We are currently undervalued and as mentioned before the market reacts in funny ways especially on volatile O&G companies and especially on AIM. All IMO of course. Hope this helps.
Guys, I can't recommend the below link enough. This can be found on Petro Matad's website under investors.
http://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SM20180710-presentation.mp3
Below are a few key points I took from the audio.
2:23 "...those 4 wells drilled by DECEMBER, we would be in a position to need more money."
3:04 "The first we thing we decided to do was to reinvigorate the farm-out effort...this time around we have had 4 companies that have shown interest in the farm-in."
5:02 "We are still in conversation with 2 companies, we don't have long until Snow Leopard gets to it's first objective so time is running short on the farm-out."
10:01 "We have permitted 2 locations at the Wild Horse structure. If the first one was to come in, we have an appraisal location we could use and we could change the programme depending on the results we find."
10:15 "We've also taken a little money as contingency to be able to test these wells if we find zones that are requiring of testing."
11:55 "During the silence there has been a hell of a lot of activity going on."
14:55 "Around about a 70 day duration which is kind of Sinopec's estimate, we're not arguing with them. We're hoping it will be a little bit quicker but we'll see."
17:14 "And then in Block XX...to pick the second location, it's not neen a critical path because we've permitted all 5 so we could have chosen any one we want. I think it's likely to be Heron because that has the largest upside potential."
21:54 "We are in the process of starting the permitting for Fox, some of the work we did for Falcon will be applicable here so we should be able to shorten the process...and we're likely to get approval for 2 locations for Fox. 1 for the initial exploration well location and 1 for a follow up."
Agreed,
-TD, log and evaluate by the 17th September
-AGM on the 20th September
47 days after spud and an AGM Notice has been released. Makes me believe TD is nearing and initial results are known. Good luck all. The next 14 working days will be very exciting on MATD.
We have 98 days left of the drilling season (End of Nov).
Sinopec Rig
- SL 24 days left
- Mobilise to WH (300km) - 1 week max (based on timescales to move 1100km for SL)
- Rigged up - 2 weeks max (based on timescales to rig-up for SL)
- Spud Wild Horse 25 days (2017 Sinopec quoted 20 days however since appointed of MB decision to drill a little further TD 2000m)
Total number of days 70 days
Total number of float in drilling season 28 days
Petro China Rig
- Site Prep at Gazelle, well site construction and on site water well drilled for operations (2 weeks)
- Mobilise rig from Block XIX to Block XX (Gazelle) 30km (2 days Max).
- Previous DT drills in 2010/2011 took 14-19 days to spud, cement, case, mobilise to the next location and rig up (average of 1800m). Gazelle is 2200m TD therefore I expect this to reach TD in 3 weeks (21 days).
- 4th drill to be confirmed. Presentation (25th June) includes the 4th drill TD of 2000m (average TD in Block XX) therefore I'd expect this to be of similar timescales 3 weeks (21 days).
Total Number of days 58 days
Total Number of float in drilling season = 40 days
Total Number of float Q4 to end of drilling season = 61 days - 42 days drilling = 19 days
In between, parallel activites will take place inc
- Site Prep at Wild Horse (due to commence late August I expect this has already begun or will be commencing shortly).
- Block XX rig contract (I expect this has been awarded and we will hear confirmation imminently, more than likely wrapped up with the confirmation of WH site prep commencement). News on multiple fronts, this could differ in content dependent on SL results. E.g. appraisal well SL-2 if positive.
- Site Prep at 4th drill (TBC). Potentially Heron. To be confirmed soon.
All complete guestimates on my part and all IMO however just wanted to provide some comfort to PIs that there is still time.
Captain, if we have a cold snap then I agree winter shutdown will take place earlier. Mike Buck's schedule runs into November and therefore if weather conditions worsen more so than expected then we will need to shutdown early. If weather permits as usual we will be drilling until the end of November as quoted by Mike Buck to complete the 4 well 2018 drilling programme.
Ok we're going there.
Between - in between period (2 seperate points in time).
So, in answer to your question. I wouldn't come to your pub fullstop...but if a sign said shut between November and April I would assume it could mean it was shut at any point in November or on the 1st December and would ask for further clarification (fortunately we have LSE interviews, presentations, drill schedules and past events to clarify this for us). If the sign said shut between November 10th and April 10th then I would not turn up on the 15th. If the sign said shut between November 30th and April 30th then I would turn up to the pub on the 15th.
Has this cleared things up?
Do I really need to define between for you. You are wrong just accept this. Drilling season runs to the end of November. Past Block XX drills back in 2011 shut down for winter on the 3rd December. Mike Buck has confirmed the drill schedule. Spud Gazelle at the end of Q3 / start of Q4 if we spud Gazelle on the 1st of October and this takes 3 weeks and we then mobilise to TBC and this takes 3 weeks we will finish mid November - end of November. Mike Buck has confirmed this. Between November - between the 1st November or between the 30th November?
Please do your research! You're being childish and if you're invested I'm only trying to help and give you the facts. You are not giving the facts.
Oh boy, end of November to April Victor.
Please listen to the LSE presentations, read the company presentations and research the drill programme as well as historic drill programmes in Mongolia.
These Block XX drills will take 3 weeks each. We are due to spud Gazelle at the end of Q3 / start of Q4. If we were to spud Gazelle at the start of October for 2 * 3week drills how would we possibly achieve this drill schedule if the drilling season from that date was 4 weeks. Drilling season is the end of November. That is not to say we could have a freak winter and yes this would impact the drill programme...but the Norm is, and what Mike Buck has confirmed is, and what previous drilling operations conformed to is = the end of November.
Fund, please listen to the audio by Mike Buck (10/07/2017). He comments on Block XX permits.
"The second location has not yet been chosen, this is not a critical path as we have permitted all 5 locations, I suspect it will be Heron".
Victor, drill season runs till the end of November. MB has also mentioned they will be drilling until the end of November. Yes weather can impact this, however previous drilling operations have also continued until the end of November. So the norm is the end of November. 14 weeks until the end of November.