Member Info for MIKEY30

I think if PM announced that WH was postponed to 2019 that you would then be sceptical* whether they would complete SL in 2018.

Correct, they didn't deliver the Block XX drills due in 2018. These have been postponed to 2019. These drills would not have been in the picture if M Buck wasn't assigned. Fundraisingbefore drills has been explained. Thank god we didn't do all 6 to cover both the 2018 and 2019 drill seasons when the placing price was 6.5p. Things have gone wrong and things have gone right. Let's see what's delivered in less than a couple of weeks.

assume*

I didn't forget. I said fully funded for 6 drills. Yes disappointing that these will fall the otherside of the winter season but these things happen. Standards don't need to be increased these are expectations on experience. If you dwell on the negatives and not the positives to provide an overall balanced long term view then I would reconsider your investment. Take your money (I assime loss by comments) and move elsewhere.

Concerned*

It's not an M.Buck shuffle it's a programme shuffle. This happens in all companies. More so when external parties are cpncerned. Q2. We spudded 9 days after (big deal). 3D siesmic due end of Q1. We recieved results and change of programme 12 days later (big deal). SL permits complete due end of April 18. We recieved permits 14 days later (big deal). If you expect results to happen on the day and for an RNS to be writte on the day you are wrong. Expect short periods to finalise the details. They've not been far off the mark and since the assignment of M Buck we've removed Bergen, gained funding for 6 drills, gained further interest from farm-in partners (1 to 4), prepped and lessons learned for 2019 drill programme. If anything M Buck has been cleaning the mess of the position the company was left in. Slippage in programme is standard. Patience man!

Good post proselenes.

Bucc - "a frontier chance of success" - great comment.

To add, you can't really generalise chance of success as there are many variables to consider and so statistics have categorised SL-1 and WH-1 in the wildcat barrier (which they are and should be) but it is worth noting that we have already proven source rock (charge) and this is something most wildcat explorations aren't gifted with. Additional factors include migration, structure, timing and productivity.

Here you go buddy,

https://youtu.be/oL9rbvLAjn4 (27 mins)

Correction on my part it was Sinopec who gave the 25 days estimate and PM who added a 5 day contingency. Therefore 30 days accounted for to provide some float should any issues arise.

They included 20 days contingency when WH was initially due to spud first. Have a listen to the presentation presented by Mike Buck who confirms it will take 25 days to drill (Sinopec estimated 20 days but the company have added an extra 5 days contingency). Answers and questions right at the end.

WH is a 25 day drill. Think about that.

There's nothing in today's RNS that indicates an exceptional oil discovery.

"Looking forward" leads me to believe and back up my thoughts that we are not presented with a duster. My opinion on this is more so associated with the fact we're 60 days down the line and they're still continuing drilling operations, logging and evaluating. Logging and evaluating what? Any find provides valuable post mortem analysis for an exploration company even if this find proves commercially insignificant (e.g. Block XX - DT).

Fortunately, we don't have much longer to wait. For me, it is more a question of how much we find. 90MMBO? 160MMBO? Or an insignificant flow which has provided further analysis to geologists to optimise subsquent drilling in a now drilled area.

17th September*, sorry

Fine to be sceptical. We know site prep is on track therefore this started in late August. For SL drill permits were complete on the 13th June and they were rigged up 35% on the 25th June. We're not due to complete SL until the 17th June and then we need to mobilise the rig...so to know they've even started does not worry me one bit.

"Community Relations

The Company takes its responsibilities in community engagement and relations very seriously. In advance of any work programme activity being undertaken, the Company obtains the necessary approvals from industry regulator, the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (MRPAM), and then participates in joint meetings with the regulator and the local communities to present and discuss planned activities. In addition to meeting local government officials, the socialisation programmes will also normally include town hall meetings where questions from local residents are answered. Company representatives will also meet with nomadic herders who may be in proximity to planned operations.

A focused programme of community projects is undertaken in areas where operations are conducted, and this is done in cooperation with local government.

The Company views the successful engagement with local communities as a key to conducting safe and successful operations".

Unfortunately we're speculating again with regards to SL-1. We know it's progressing and we will hear something later this month. I'm hoping the 17th September (70 days after spud). Mike Buck did say "look forward" I personally wouldn't look too much into that. We know however drilling operations are ongoing and we are yet to hear of any hiccups along the way (or atleast we haven't been informed of any) and this proves promising given we are 60 days after spud which commenced on the 9th July.

I don't think the delay to Block XX was to do with potential findings at SL-1. I think the delay was for the exact reason the RNS stated. DQE have rejected the negotiations for late stage changes. No clarity on what these changes were...

It does however give the flexibility to MB SHOULD a discovery be found to adjust the programme. I suspect if they find a discovery the first point of call would be to bring a farm-in partner. The investment from a farm-in partner to appraise findings would also probably dictate to PM where to de-risk next with the ~7m budgeted for Block XX. Much like they have already e.g. Falcon and Red Deer from data room visits.

The big one is still happening and this will happen whether they find oil or not at SL-1. Named one to watch for 2018. If Sinopec meet estimations it provides some confidence to investors that they will meet their timescales for WH-1 too, which I think we need after the last few years with PM.

Agree 2010, you can look at it in 2 ways. Either they've not found anything however the search continues. Or they've found hydrocarbons for initial testing and will announce once evaluated. Given we would know immediately down to TD if there were no oil shows and we're on day 60 (59 days after spud) I agree with others that this now seems unlikely IF the drilling has run as Sinopec predicted and we've not encountered any issues going down. E.g. damage to the drill bit or damage to the formations.

Yes, so 11 days until completion.

September 17th is 70 days after spud.

released*

Haha there's no other way to do research. To help out an RNS wreleased last year originally for Snow Leopard at 3150m stated 50 days. The RNS for this time round states up to 70 days for 3350m. These are Sinopec's estimations. In the audio Mike Buck confirms the 70 days are for TD, to log and to evaluate. So there is some form of initial testing. Mike Buck has confirmed they will be evaluating all 2018 drills over the winter shutdown period. Some have posted that the 20 days extra are for testing purposes. I believe the additional 200m personally adds another 5 days drilling due to it's depth and I also suspect contingency for intermediate casing (~5 days) leaving ~10 days for initial testing. This of course is all IMO and will differ to others views.

Have a glass for me! Unfortunately I'm going to have to stick to the tea.

Mmm snow leopard is a tricky one. I have questioned whether the additional 20 days also includes contingency for intermediate casing and cementing for potential upsides extra to the 2 primary zones. Wrt abandoning the well, depends on the oil shows found. If no oil shows to TD they will be able to confirm almost immediately. If they find any oil shows then they could spend days (~10 days based on previous drilling in Block XX) carrying out analysis to interpret initial flow rates.