RE: Fireworks again tomorrow…: almost 1.5bn volume13 Jun 2024 07:48
Novice, a lot of people are calculating the sp by dividing any 'cash' lump sum Baron get for a straightforward sale, and rightly so by shares in issue i.e if we get £500m for a complete sale then divide that by 25bn shares in issue and we end up with an sp of 2p, give or take. Nothing wrong with that as it's the bog standard way of working out the MarCap of a Company, simples.
However, not many posters are taking in to account if Andy Butler does a deal that is not just a straight forward 'sale' but we retain a % of revenue from gas produced by still holding a % of the company once in production, OR an agreement from a 'sale' / deal that gives us 'royalties' from the Company that buys us out.
Then it's a whole new ball game regarding what the sp will / could be and not a simple calculation with shares in issue divisible to the NAV.
Most Companies are valued at multiples, Tech x 20, Car Manufacturers x 10 etc ( except Tesla! ) due to the annual revenue stream giving said Company a solid foundation of continuing and future financial assurance. The Market knows it's a safe bet as it can be in paying salaries, keeping the lights on plus making a profit etc.
We can look at Earnings per Share ( EPS ) and P/E further down the line as it is more complex than my novice explanation here but my point is IF Andy cuts a deal with a revenue / income stream in addition to a cash lump sum, no matter how small, then the sp will be higher than people think.
The 'very interesting conversations regarding funding' that Andy quoted in an interview / update has been picked up by a lot of posters who, like me, think there are some very favourable options he can make.
Final comment, I believe, and it's just my opinion, that Andy has discussed a deal with someone like ENI ( who are next door license wise ) in a partial % sale and will use some of the 'cash' to work with them on future projects / licenses in the Timor Leste waters thereby reducing risk / costs to both parties. I do believe Andy has that small leverage even with a Tier 1 Company and has a desire to become a serious player in the area and not a one trick pony, he is ambitious and comes across as excited by where he is taking the company.
We shall see, atb mate.