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I'm just keeping it realistic, the sale price will be all about volumes, just have a small niggling fear Andy may well give too many sweeteners away in making a deal, hope I am wrong and he can hold his own with the Tier 1's who have decades of experience in making these deals. We need the 5.56 Tcf at the negotiating table.
atb.
As I stated last week the CPR is just for Chudditch1 i.e 1.359 Tcf and not the 5.56 Tcf, so we will not see 3p - 5p and fall in line with the brokers estimate 0.7p.
I hope that Andy can make a sale of all of the Chudditch regions, SW etc and then we could get near those figures with a healthy dividend.
I think some will be disappointed and not taking in to account it's just Chudditch1 for the CPR at the moment.
atb.
As I alluded to yesterday it would appear the CPR is just about Chudditch1, 1.359 Tcf and not the 5.56 Tcf, so the talk of 3p - 5p just wont happen unless BOIL can include the aggregate of the whole of Chudditch and just when this can be brought to the negotiating table I don't know.
atb.
Just looking at Allenby Broker note stating sp of 0.708p this is based on Chudditch1 of expected volumes 1.359 tcf, we know Andy and the team quote 5.56 tcf for the whole of Chudditch. a multiple of 4 which using Allenby estimates to sp would be 0.708 x4 = 2.8p.
Genuine question, is the CPR only going to confirm the 1.359 tcf or will it also give a figure of the aggregate volumes of Chudditch. If not will Andy only be able to command a sale / jv price of the lower figure and not the 5.56 tcf which him and the team and updated notes on the website are keen to promote.
atb.
Oil & Gas terms. A lot of you will know but some might not that that COS or pG is based on the individual % of success against 4 sets of criteria, i did know them of old but rock strata is one, permeability is another. Each one is given a % figure of success, they obviously can vary but will still be multiplied out to come to a final figure.
To come to a figure, in this case 34%, you multiply each % figure by the next one.
So you could have 80% x 70% x 65% x 90% for the 4 individual criteria and it will give you a final figure.
For 70% x 70% x 70% x 70% you end up with a final figure of just 16.8% CoS Chance of success.
80% x 80% x 80% x 80% = 32.7% which falls in line with Dunrobin (34%)
90% as above would give a final figure of 59%.
So whilst it looks a low % it is not applied as a % that we all were familiar with at school. Apologies if mansplaining but for the few that were not aware of this it makes the 34% better reading. The mm's know this as well.
atb.
My point being if it is announced that if in any event a dividend will be forth coming then the vast majority of holders will do just that and wait for the payout. This should stabilise any big gains being sold in to apart from the traders imo.
atb.
It would be nice CDF1 if that pushes ENI towards us even more, I'm sure they have us in their cross hairs anyway but it may put Libya on the back burner, it may not. What would be interesting is if we could know the gas volumes ( TCF ) that ENI were prepared to stump up £8bn for, may then be able to calculate what 5.56 bcf (3.89tcf recoverable ) is likely to command against it.
atb.
Agree totally, we do not have to convince anyone, least of all ourselves, as the CPR will do the talking. For me, seeing as we actually had a volume upgrade from 3.89tcf to 5.56tcf that takes away the uncertainty of if we only had the initial figure we could be sitting quite nervously, but to increase the figures suggests a hard evidence from data to be allowed to do that.
As we know ERCE have worked with us before and will be relaxed in dealing with known customers.
atb.