Member Info for Mikemine

Stew, the leak issue is still not done and dusted although they seem to have the engineering sorted. They only seem to be waiting for the insurance company to come to a decision and then they will get the 2nd reactor up to speed again. I don't know why its taking so long but thats hitting sentiment so we have to live with it.

As for inside information, I doubt it. The fact is AIM shares are news driven and, although we've had some minor good news, the elephant in the room is still around.

Anyone who can look past this issue, which undoubtedly will be resolved, will be able to pick up very cheap shares atm IMHO. A company like this with a market cap of around £38mn is rare to find. It has a commercial product which is said to be a world leader, first class partners and a revenue stream with probably more orders to follow.

Patience is needed as ever.

Yes, it looks like someone has a fair chunk to unload for whatever reason and is trying to be careful not to upset the Market, and the SP, by selling in large amounts.

What we really need is a resolution to the leak but Envia is in charge of that. It must be frustrating to our BOD as well as us that the situation is dragging on.

We're in to H2 now and this is the period in which VLS was hoping they would secure partners for the Natchez plant so news could come at any time on that front. I hope it doesn't come before the leak is behind us as it will overshadow any good news as has happened in the last few weeks with other positive news.

Another find, this time by Donatron on ii. Looks like VLS are at Farnborough spreading the word.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-07-16/sustainable-jet-fuel-company-reaches-funding-milestone

Don't know where these guys find these articles. I'm carp at it.

Yes, its going to be a huge market and we only need a small percentage of it to be hugely successful. We've already started the journey with Red Rock which puts us ahead of most others. With political and air industry pressure I'm sure the present timelines will be compressed.

VLS just won't have the resources to provide what will be needed IMHO and thats why I think that they will be taken over by someone with deep pockets, someone like Shell which is already in the game.

The investment case here is 2 track; long term multi bagger or takeover target. Take your pick but you'll need patience for both.

Here's an interesting article found by Jammy on II. Note the number of facilities needed just for future airline growth. Can't see VLS being independent beyond next year, maybe sooner.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Velocys-13070397.php

I'm not sure of the need for further fund raising. The CEO says he will try not to dilute as far as he can. They are looking for partners for the Natchez project presumably to provide either cash or expertise and hardware. Envia will obvious cost some money to get back to full production but we don't know how much nor if it is covered by insurance. Can't believe it will cost tens of millions though.

On the plus side VLS has had grants and upfront money from RR with more to come as the project progresses. On top of this there will be some sort of revenue from the Envia project. I don't know if this is in profit at full production but definitely there is some to offset expenses.

There may be other contracts from RR in the pipeline, they want to build another 10 plants to begin with and they will not wait for each project to be completed before they start the next IMHO. There is also the possibility of contracts coming from left field.

So the answer is that we are left guessing but my best estimate is that we won't need funding this year unless we enter in to building a new project and at that stage we will have a situation where we borrow to make a profit, thats welcome, and not to keep the lights on. I'm not sure about next year but I suspect that known projects will be firmer and the SP will reflect that so any fund raise will be less dilutive.

Every company like this I have followed has investors that are paranoid about dilution.All dilution should be feared is the mantra. VLS doesn't have the money to finance all the projects it has in the pipeline. Thats a fact. The projects should be highly profitable so fund raising to finance them is normal and welcome. Fund raising to keep the BOD in a certain lifestyle makes no profit and so is unwelcome.

I'd be very happy if VLS raised £100mn if it meant that it would return £500mn and make VLS a 10 bagger.

DHC, I agree with almost all you say. 30p might be the final bid price but not from 12p. A CEO wouldn't get the backing from his shareholders for paying virtually a 200% premium unless there is a counter bid then it becomes a bidding war.

A little while down the road, with continued good news, someone might have to pay 40p or 50p but by that time we'll be lot happier with the SP. First things first, get Oklahoma up to full production again. Put it behind us.

Correction," it needs to get it right"

This share is looking like many I've seen over the years. The SP has taken a battering and is almost valuing the company as though bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. The cause is a bad piece of news which still hasn't been fully negated. Oklahoma needs to come back to full production, which I'm sure it will, and we need a surprise piece of good news and this level will be a thing of the past. I'll give you an example. About 15 months ago HUR's SP was around the 10p mark. It had just gone through a perceived mismanagement of a warrants issue and the market really questioned the BOD especially the CFO.The company itself hadn't put a foot wrong in what it did, drilling for oil. Gradually the SP started to recover and it was all good news after that. Now the SP closed at 53p with probable progression this year.

As i say, I've seen this quite a few times and VLS fits the bill very well. The guys that bought HUR at 10p will have been laughing at their good fortune but its repeatable here given a similar timescale IMHO. £170mn company in 18 months is not out of the question but it needs to it right. Thats the risk investors have to take.

RA, through his fund, has a stake in quite a few renewable energy companies and I believe his interest is not just about making money but also about backing the area to make sure that these disruptive technologies don't get lost through lack of backing. Its only my personal opinion.

Should a company come along with deep pockets and offer him a reasonable sum I'm sure that he would take it in the knowledge that the technology he has backed will stand a better chance of the technology progressing. As the current SP is below 12p, I doubt that a bid would come in at 30p but 20p would seem very doable.

When you look for a company to invest in what do you look for?

History is littered with successful companies that were founded and developed by people with a dream or vision if you like. These guys are driven to make things work sometimes against pretty high odds. Viewing the interview, its obvious that VLS has a number of these people who are motivated by a vision and you can't buy that. There's a saying in the investment world which goes "back the man." In VLS's case its a case of back the people and in this instance we have a very experienced and able crew who have obviously impressed the likes of Shell, BA etc who are no mugs.

VLS's technology has impressed our crew and in turn the aforementioned companies. VLS is even revenue producing which is great for a company with a disruptive product valued by the Market at only £40mn. VLS has the right product at the right time with right crew. Whats not like.

The 2 positive RNSs before last were lost in the general worry about the leak. AIM is news driven so, although the SP should still recover, any new positive news would be a real driver. News of another Red Rock plant would be ideal. They have another 10 planned and I don't suppose they want to do one at a time so news on that front could come any time.

Anyway, looking positive atm.

Small trades do affect the SP but the adage "follow the money" is a good guide for serious investors. In today's trading the 453K trade spoke volumes. That's a bit serious money being put on the table. Many were sitting on their hands, including me, until the leak was addressed. We may well see a few more of these large trades coming through in the next few days. The charts are indicating a 13p barrier and if breached we could reasonably expect a rise to 20p in a fairly short order. Sentiment has changed in the last 15 hours. We are now in positive territory.

I have heard this on so many other BBs and its never the case. AIM stocks are news sensitive and rely on regular items of good news to maintain an upward trend. We have a situation now of an overhang of a significant piece of bad news that needs to be reversed. If/when this happens negative sentiment will turn positive and investors should return.

I'm as frustrated by the leak problem as anyone else, including management I suspect, but there is little we as shareholders can do apart from depart, stick with it or add to our holdings if you think longer term. The leak is presumably solvable as it is not the principle of the catalyst at fault so sooner or later we will get a RNS. I don't think it harms the longer term prospects of VLS. In fact, if they improve on the design of the plant, future offerings may be more reliable and attractive to customers. It is hard to see the longer term picture when the SP is taking a hiding but VLS is a long term investment and that is the way it should be viewed.

Thanks Surprised, very interesting. Where did you find it? I look at 3 bbs but this must be a bb of which i am not aware.

It doesn't look as though the leak is overly concerning VLS and it could be that the issue is resolved at no cost to them. It looks to be a problem of the engineering side of the consortium and, in view of the fact that the plant is fairly new, they might be responsible for putting it right .Anyway, if that is not the case, any costs will be spread amongst the stakeholders and VLS is a minority one. It certainly doesn't seem that the company is going to take a big hit or is in any serious trouble as the SP suggests.

Seriously oversold IMHO.

A guy on ADVFN Said he had been at the AGM where our COO said the leak was to do with a cooling system but as VLS is a minority shareholder of the project he couldn’t say more. This was his first post and he is obviously uncomfortable with posting. Thats all he said which is a pity. maybe he’ll say more later or others will post further. I certainly hope so.

Chris Grayling said that the go-ahead is dependant on the pollution levels being tackled so biofuel must come in to the frame somewhere. The expansion will not start overnight but preparations, including having enough biofuel capacity, will need to be in place long before then IMHO. This will mean developing sites in the fairly near future. Even without the expansion, demand for cleaner aviation fuel will increase at most airports and especially Heathrow which is under scrutiny right now. Whether consortiums using VLS technology will fill this need is open to debate but VLS has the ability to deal with London's waste as well as producing aviation grade biofuel which must be a huge plus.

I would not be surprised if BA and Shell ask VLS to bring forward their planning for their combined operation starting with finalising the positioning of the initial site. I say initial as I expect the capacity will not be sufficient ultimately from one site.

Its long term for sure and I can't see VLS being and independent entity for very long after it all kicks off. Bigger parent companies will have greater resources to upscale whats needed. Any hint of a go-ahead for the site should give the SP a major boost IMHO.

As VLS said would happen, their proper logo has reappeared on Red Rocks website under "Partners" It was taken down at VLS's request as the original VLS logo was in black and white and VLS encourages all their partners to use the correct logo. Some viewed the disappearance of the logo as a bad sign especially as it happened around the same time as the Leak RNS but it was all quite innocent as it turns out and VLS's relationship with RR seems as robust as ever. If anybody is going to the AGM, they might bring this up and perhaps ask about VLS's involvement in any future RR sites.

Someone unloading 400K of shares. Pity or this would have finished quite a bit higher IMO. The implications of the RNS are more longer term than just a very short trading period and the funding won't be reversed and might quite possibly lead to further awards, so its very much value adding news. We've needed a good day and this has been one.

I didn't know VLS was hooked up with Shell for this project so that is excellent news and gives lots of credibility to VLS. The rest of the news gives further validity to VLS's product and ability to deliver. This news will raise VLS's profile as well. The ducks are lining up.