Member Info for Mikemine

RED are exhibiting in OZ in October. They've had a lot of interest declared down there so lets hope they get some more success.

I was going to post something slightly different here But have become lazy so I've copied what I posted on ii.

"The problem for investors is that we have been given no figures for the repair or even what, if anything, was damaged and how extensive it was. Clearly it would help if the insurance company made a decision which would leave Envia’s JV partners with decisions to make.

The possibility of shutting the plant has always been an unstated option and I’m sure most of us thought about that especially as time went on. At this stage I believe that option is a very weak possibility although it is a risk but VLS were right to state this in the RNS. Unfortunately it was given higher emphasis by PIs that it merited IMHO. The closure possibility would not have been lost on investors in the latest placing. I haven’t seen the placing offer documents but I’d bet it would be cited as one of the risks yet the placing succeeded we are told.

Until the insurance position is clear I can’t see any decision being made although I’m sure the JV partners have gone over various scenarios. I don’t think there is a will to close the plant but you never know."

I think the odds are in favour of the problem being resolved, at some cost, and full production will be achieved but the odds have shortened a tad. All my opinion so it should be viewed that way and not taken as advice.

I didn't know VLS was listed in the US

The RNS might be just the ticket. It brings clarification, and yes outlines risks. Anybody buying now has a clear view of the situation and leaves no room for false rumours like we had this morning.

Just been offered 6.8p to sell. Recovering well but very squeaky there for a time.

SAS, read the RNS again. The problem is still being looked in to but its pretty obvious its going to cost Envia to remedy. All the partners a still discussing who will pay for what and that includes the insurance company. One of the options is to close the plant entirely but its by no means a done deal. I think they had to say that as a risk factor. All this would have been known to the guys who took the placing I'm sure.

If you think they will get the plant up and running again it could be a fantastic buying opportunity but the risk is there alright.

Tony, I've never flagged problems with the reactor and neither has VLS

6.5p

6.25p now. The recovery seems as sharp as the fall

Its now 6p to sell. Not much comfort but its coming back.

I think a lot depends on what the insurance company says. The RNS at least lays it all out so there can't be any doubts about what is happening. Closing the plant has always been an option but I don't believe any of the partners want that as it represents failure and nobody wants to be associated with that. The guys who bought in to the placing must have been aware of all this yet still went ahead so that a consideration.

Well, here's update RNS.

SAS, Its your shout regarding buying or not. I wouldn't presume to advise. Whats the SP is saying to me is that VLS is on the verge of collapse. Personally I don't believe that. I certainly didn't see 7-8p as a possibility a few weeks back but sentiment has dropped like a stone. I've said much about the handling of the leak so I won't say more but without that unfortunate event I'm sure the SP would have reached 20p by now as the Envia plant would have achieved a positive cash flow and things would look much rosier.

Winnings1, I feel the pain as well but companies like this spend much time in the early stages needing to be supported due to lack of revenue. This period looks like coming to and end next year. In fact they might have had some upfront money from Anglian already. It wouldn't be unheard of.

I keep my eye on the strategy and whether they are achieving their milestones which I think they are. Last year was all which was all about getting a commercial product to market and assembling a sales team. This year has been about getting the sales team to find contracts and they have and, I believe, will continue to do so. I wouldn't be at all surprised if another contract is signed this year, maybe more. RED have a good product, a clear vision and are in the right industry.

The strategy is sound and working IMHO so I'm happy.

N, from here I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a rise coming. The charts are saying well oversold and it would only need a touch of positive news on the leak front to restore some confidence which is everything here.

It really is not in the company's interest to see the SP at these levels especially when you're trying to raise funds at some point in the future. Imagine what those investors are thinking who participated in the last placing. 25% down. I don't think it would be much good going back to them for more money at these levels would it. Capital growth is dictated by the SP so they have to be mindful of that.

It really is a mess atm and only the company can sort it out and I suggest they do it quickly to stop the next false rumour.

Neils87, It was too obvious. How fortunate to have a Facebook friend sitting more or less on the doorstep.

The lesson for VLS though is if you leave a void someone is going to fill it and you may not like it. To not outline the strategy for dealing with the leak was and is a major PR blunder IMHO. This episode has lead to over a 50% reduction in the SP and could easily have been avoided. The SP would have taken a hit but, handled correctly and openly, the damage would have been much less severe.

I informed VLS and Northcoattiger's posts have been deleted. I think that says it all.

From the update 4th July.

"Since the internal leak in an FT reactor was announced on 15th May 2018, this reactor has been removed from operation and is undergoing analysis by ENVIA's insurance company as it processes a claim. The plant continues to operate using its second Velocys FT reactor."

I don't need to tell you that the consequences for deliberately giving out false information by a company can be harsh.

If this is correct from Northcoattiger the VLS are in serious breach of the reporting rules and the consquences could be severe.

You will have to make your mind up about the truth of the matter but you can see the number of A trades which usually means that traders are about with attendant rumours.

It took a lot of selling this morning to show PIs that this is in again basement country and they've bought in. No news but we've been promised news about Envia within the next 3 weeks or so. In the meantime there other lines of potential news that could come anytime any of which could catch shorters and traders out very badly.

One of the lines of news that I'm surprised we haven't heard about is the next project for Red Rock. They had a target of 10 units across America and I don't think they will wait for Lakeview to be up and running before they would want to line up the next one. Maybe this will break soon.