Member Info for Mikemine

You have to realise where RED is. Last year and part of this year, after many years of development, it was all about getting a commercial product ready for market, gathering appropriate staff together to create a sales and marketing force etc. This year has been mostly about using the sales force to effect which has produced the Anglian and German projects. They have also now got a pipeline of projects that need financing and that was mentioned in the last video. On top of this RED has finished designing and testing GEN3 which will come in to production towards the end of the year.

Some of the projects you can see on that website have taken a fair time to plan and discuss and RED was simply not in a position to bid for them. RED is in a very early stage and still has pretty limited resources to chase orders all over the place so others already in the field will have a big advantage. RED has done well and will do better but it would be a mistake to think that other projects which have no RED or even vanadium component marks a failure for RED. The market for energy storage has really only just got underway relatively speaking. It will get much bigger and RED will get it's share of that market IMHO. They will not succeed with every bid, nobody does, but they will very successful and it's valuation will reflect that in my opinion.

Refer back to the RNS's especially the results and see where RED is heading and what their plan is. Look at the videos and judge for yourself if what they say is credible.

I found this which has a couple of articles directly relating to what Scott was talking about in the last video. He said there were funds out there looking for projects in the energy storage industry. There are only 2 mentioned amongst the other storage news items but it does indicate that he was correct in his assertion. Bring it on.

https://www.energy-storage.news

In a low volume market its difficult to sell say a million shares in one hit. You might have to accept a much lower price than the Market one. Gradually drip feeding doesn't upset the market too much and your 100K sells are more acceptable to the MMs and you eventually get out with a better price.

Why someone sells has many answers. It could be they have spotted a better home for their investment, a forced sale due to over leverage situation or they could simply need the money. There are many many reasons for selling and buying of course. Its a market.

Its only IMHO of course.

Morning Pinecone, thanks for the link.

No, the Market doesn't know any more than we do otherwise we would have seen a much greater volume I'm sure. There seems to be a persistent seller which is weighing on the SP. With this type of volume it wouldn't be difficult to press the SP lower, or higher come to that, as we can see. More clarity on funding or the German project financing should see a more positive direction IMHO and there's always the prospect of a surprise piece of news.

I forgot to add that all this will have a massive effect on the need for future funding. As I mentioned earlier, I'm beginning to feel that RED might not need any more funding via share placement at all. Would be nice but I'm sure any funding will be fairly small if needed, just to get them through to first orders being paid for. Its only my opinion of course.

Pinecone, thanks for that.

If you go back the RNS 31st March 2017 it refers to Jabil manufacturing. From memory Jabil will undertake all the manufacturing of the units and fund same until RED is paid. The various contracts for units will presumably take this in to account and will need to satisfy the terms of business RED has with Jabil. I don't know the terms of the contract but its my belief that this agreement means that RED doesn't have gear up with associated costs to produce all those units. It is thought that the German project will be built in Jabil's Italian factory. Basically, as far as I can see, RED is responsible for R&D, sales and marketing and admin. Everything else is outsourced. One of things that worried me was how RED was going to fill the orders but looking back its clear to me expansion of orders is no problem at all. It seems a sweet deal to me. I really like their business model.

Others will correct me if I'm wrong.

Pinecone, quite a story.

You seem to have had experience at a high level. I'd like your view on the perceived orders. Is it usual for RED to expect, indeed receive, some upfront money at the time of the placing of the orders?

I have a feeling that, with upfront money, RED won't need to go to the market for more funding. It'll be touch and go with the German order but Anglian may well have put some money our way already.

i am having a good day up here in Snowdonia. Plenty of sunshine, some cloud but a strongish breeze which is stopping me going for a long walk. Tomorrow should be a different story. Have a good one.

Pinecone, you are right to highlight the length of time taken to get a commercial product to market. You are no doubt aware of the Omicore's CEO remark of citing 10 years as industry's accepted standard of getting technology from concept to market. I don't know the full history of RED but they may well have taken a wrong path earlier in their development which added to the journey but they are there now IMHO.

As for waiting for confirmed orders, I'd like to direct you to the RNS about the Anglian ORDER. "The company has received an initial commercial order for four Gen 3 units" Quite explicit I would say. Yes, the German order needs the finance to be verified but the announcement of the finance agreement wouldn't have been made by Scott without a very high degree of confidence and advice from the money men I feel sure. As Scott said in the last interview, RED is now in the execution phase.

Scott has a lot of credibility riding on his confident statements about the German "order". I've never met the guy but, from his interviews, he seems level headed and not prone to using dramatic words like awesome or fantastic which usually come from CEO's trying to talk up weak companies. Anyway we'll know sometime in December we're told so not that long now. In the meantime anything could come. I wouldn't bet against another project being flagged this year. Exciting prospects.

You really shouldn't drink before 18.00.

Posted this on ADFVN and I thought you might like to read it as well. 50% generation by renewables by 2025 is forecast. Thats impressive and will mean a doubling from now. Thats going to need lots of storage and RED doesn't need it all to become very profitable, just a small chunk.

http://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903

There's going to be a big market for storage. Its going to be very interesting to hear from RED about their conversations they will have at the exhibition in October.

Interesting report.

https://www.smartenergy.org.au/sites/default/files/uploaded-content/field_f_content_file/australian_energy_storage_market_analysis_report_sep18_final.pdf

Lots of the market is for residential use but there is a growing large scale market which will only get bigger. Its estimated that 3/4 of new residential solar installations will include a battery component. Makes sense. I can certainly see that applying and even bigger proportion for new large scale solar projects would be an obvious development and there are plenty of those in the pipeline over there. And that doesn't take retro-fitting in to account. Its enormous.

Pinecone, that was from 2015 which was about the time they implemented their 5 year plan. The focus now is on Mobile battery technology and recycling. The may still have an interest in static battery capacity but it was hardly mentioned in their 2018 Capital Day presentation.

https://www.umicore.com/en/cases/capital-markets-day-2018/

The overwhelming emphasis was on car batteries so I'm not at all sure they would be interested in taking on RED's technology although they may well want use some units in their own buildings/factories as they are very interested in cutting cost and sustainability.

Thanks Pinecone. I looked in to AR a while back and monitored it for a while but didn't note that episode. It makes you wonder how many more potential hook ups are out there waiting for the right stage of development to buy RedT. Certainly RED's technology has gained much credibility over the last couple of years and its in a market that is about to explode IMHO. With recent news my main worry is if they can meet demand. It sounds like a lot of engineering to me to meet the German order. The time might be coming next year when a big engineering company might need to take them over.

Recent dummy sells (and buys) with ii had no problem quoting for tens of thousands. Consider changing your broker?.............................or just hold your shares.

"The CEO is fully aware of RedT and we will assume that at some point this power station will add RedT storage machines to the development !"

I didn't hear any mention of RED in the interview. I assume you have that information from elsewhere. Care to share?

About a month ago Scott said it was being installed as he spoke in one of the videos. Don't know how long it takes to install but would think it deserves a RNS when its fully up and running. Just saying Scott.

I was looking in to Andrew Fluke energy guy at Anglian and his Twitter account directed me to this

https://utilityweek.co.uk/anglian-water-partners-solar-energy-storage-project/

Anybody who is awake will already be aware of the contents but what struck me was the timescale. These utilities usually move at a pedestrian rate but on this occasion Anglian plans to install and extra 30 MWp over the next 18 months. We are told that Anglian can do this because of RED's storage capability. Thats a lot of units over a fairly short period of time so watch out for news on that front.

Bobf, and this when the Japanese are planning to build forty coal fired power stations (whatever happened to Kyoto?) and the Chinese even more. Don't mention India.

Its early days yet I suppose but 10p seems to be the new downward resistance level. I thought the SP might drift down as no news is expected (but you never know) but it looks like we now have the patient PIs who have let the SP settle and are taking advantage at this level. The German finance deal was huge news and a game changer for me. Its always down to money isn't it.

RED are exhibiting in OZ this October as I mentioned before. I don't think they are talking but here's the link.

http://www.all-energy.com.au/en/visit/exhibitors/#search=d%3D103293%257C0R%26lo%3D0%26rpp%3D12

Apparently RED have had considerable interest from OZ. I'm not surprised as energy prices are a big topic there as is the state of the industry.