Member Info for Mikemine

Can't find out much about the link up between Alberfield and RED but they have an office in Perth. Western Australia has just announced an initiative to promote mining for materials used for renewables and storage.There is also mention of the state's intention to promote renewables and storage.

http://www.alberfield.com.au/2018/08/redt-partnership/

This is mainly about lithium but vanadium gets a mention.

https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/02/04/western-australia-launches-strategy-to-fuel-battery-industry/

I can't find any news attached to Alberfield and RED apart from the tie up but I don't think Alberfield would link up without good cause.

I assume they have made RED aware of this development. Would be interesting to hear their views.

Someone on ADVFN posted this link. Its a bit old but I hadn't seen it before. The bit towards the end explains why RED is using hybrids.

https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/redt-shows-off-vanadium-stack-with-augmented-reality-app

I think its safe to say we are all fed up with listening to news about the fiasco that has been the negotiations, if thats what you can call them, over Brexit but the fact remains, whatever the outcome, the UK will trade with the EU and thats a fact. The mechanics might change but our companies sell to countries worldwide without trade agreements so selling to the EU should be no different. As for RED selling to the Germans, I can see no reason why that won't happen but I suspect the finance guys are waiting for greater clarity before they sign off.

bobf, certainly agree about tariffs and I'll include constraint payment in that. In fact I've written to Claire Perry on just that matter, bringing to her attention that, while wind farm operators were receiving such large constraint payments, there was little incentive to invest in storage. In fact energy companies are lobbying to get subsidies for onshore reinstated so they can go ahead with projects, 107 I believe, that will add even more turbines to the landscape. I pointed out that existing turbines could be used 24/7, if conditions allow, and would add greatly to capacity if storage was used and so reduce the immediate need for added wind farms.

Clair Perry is the Minister of State for Energy and Clean Growth at the Department of Energy and Industrial Growth. I couldn't find a way of emailing her at the Department so had to go through her constituency who have forwarded it to her Department. I'll let you know what she says but, in the meantime, others might wish to write to her as well. They do count numbers.

Thats a big capacity. Does anybody know how much acreage is involved for the wind farms that appear to be source of the electricity to be stored?

I really don't see size as a problem. Equally I can't see the need for massive areas in one place devoted to storage of on-shore wind driven energy. Off shore might be a different proposition as these buys are huge by comparison but, even so, I don't think it will be a problem as it is the "national interest".

On another point, I thought containers were stackable. Thats the whole point isn't it. Certainly you can see them piled high on container ships.

Bikeracer1098 I'll answer both questions

a. Read the link in my previous post

b. Wind has the potential to operate 24/7. Solar can only operate during daylight hours. The storage comes from batteries or flow machines of course.

I was wondering if there was any benefit to wind farm operators to store energy, usually at night I would imagine. Unlike solar, wind power is not dependant on the sun but demand is not the same at all times. Wind farms receive payments for energy they don't produce when the National Grid asks them to stop generating because the grid doesn't need or cannot cope with the electricity at any particular time. Its called "constraints". The payments per KW seem to be greater than the payment for actual electricity produced. Nice little earner Rodney. I'm sure most of you are aware of this.

If wind farms can receive good returns for constraints why would they pay for storage I ask myself. The answer might lie in this link

Https://www.ref.org.uk/energy-data/notes-on-wind-farm-constraint-payments

The inference is that there has been a pressure to reduce the constraint price and that will probably grow. It might be phased out entirely if storage gets mainstream.

To my mind wind power is a better bet for storage than solar as it can generate electricity 24/7. If the Government reduces the constraint price we should see a big demand for storage but thats probably a long way off.

I find it ironic that if a fossil fuel power plant is asked to shut down by the Grid they pay money to the Grid whereas the reverse is true for wind and solar. Surely the subsidy should be to not let carbon go in to the atmosphere. Have I missed something here?

I wonder if they want a cheap energy storage company.

https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volkswagen-to-become-a-power-supplier-4551

RED is not mentioned but this is about increasing the amount of finance for green projects. It is the sort of thing Scott was talking about a while back.

https://theenergyst.com/major-utilities-join-forces-create-green-finance-initiative/

Link from ADFVN bb

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/uk-govt-seeks-to-relax-rules-for-large-scale-storage-co-located-with-genera

Actually I think this is more difficult to call than last year. Last year nobody expected a profit and continuing dilution was expected and this would always drag the SP down. This year the expectations are different. Execution is now the buzz word so the company has to turn potential in to some form of monetary success which should include at least a reduction in the rate of dilution or hopefully an ending of it all together. So we have 2 different stories in front of us with 2 very different outcomes for the SP.

The market will be harsh on RED if the negative scenario plays out IMHO. They've had time now to get all the ducks in a row, which they have done, and failure to come good this year will probably mean the end for RED I reckon.

Now the tricky bit. As someone pointed out before, a fresh placing will probably bring the number of shares on issue to 1 Billion. Sounds a lot but, if that is the final total, its not much different to lots of companies on AIM so no biggy. The real issue is what will the company be worth and without the rates of return, prices, revenue streams etc. its almost pure guesswork. I can't see RED being valued at more than £500mn this year even with everything going well. So we have a top end of 50p or so. The likelihood, IMHO, is that RED will get the existing contracts underway and add to them with new ones through the year. We are likely to see a new partner come in to add to credibility and financial stability. RED has a good product and is in a dynamic, growing and politically "must have" sector so they are well placed to succeed.

We are still in the sticky area but I'm going to suggest £350-400mn valuation is not out of the question for a tech company in a growth area aiming for big projects. This being so I'm going out on a limb and predict 40p for end of year SP.

I don't ordinarily give predictions as its generally a mug's game but this seem like just a bit of fun. Out of interest, if we were allowed 2 predictions my other one would be 1p.

Seems 2019 is going to be transformational. Hope so.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/current-predicts-the-energy-transition-in-2019-part-four

Sorry my posts are a bit disjointed but lack of space is the culprit here.

Overall a good RNS without fireworks. Plenty of fireworks to come one way or the other. My experience with these types of companies is that things take longer than ordinary PIs think they should and maybe managements as well. Everything is new to them and each stage of company development needs to be worked out on the run. It is a characteristic of human beings that we get out of the do-do usually so, when companies hit problems or challenges, managements are able to see the way forward (usually). In RED's case, management has got the company to the stage of take off. We will see in fairly short order if they can execute.

Good luck the LTHs

"The Company is currently in discussions with a number of high profile, global financing partners to deploy infrastructure capital in this regard and looks forward to updating the market on this in due course."

Disappointing that they haven't secured a partner yet but I'm not surprised in this uncertain political and economic times.

"This 'beachhead' project is a highly significant development, representing the largest behind-the-meter commercial energy storage system to be installed in the country. It is also an important reference site for our technology in what is one of the world's fastest growing markets for energy storage."

Can't see any BAD NEWS here. RED has a show case system in place with an institution that has a prestigious and knowledgable renewable energy faculty. Energy storage in OZ is the new kid on the block and RED is there.

"Once again, with 'beachhead' storage deployments in South Africa and Botswana, redT is well placed to succeed, being at the forefront of this market, and is currently in late stage negotiations on a number of high-profile projects."

Don't know about this one. It mentions "late stage" so we could see something here pretty soon. Its certainly not BAD NEWS though.

"Working with our chosen investment partner, we continue to progress to financial close on the first 40MWh project of our 700MWh German project portfolio."

This is kind of BAD NEWS as they are going to miss their deadline but events in Germany are interfering with the sign off so there is a reason for it. They talk about the New Year but that could be anytime next year.

"redT's third generation of flow machine combines best in class IP with new, proprietary features designed to maximise performance and financial returns for customers."

I have no way of assessing this statement so must go with RED's. No BAD NEWS here.

"As previously disclosed, because the vanadium in the electrolyte is neither consumed nor degraded by the energy storage process, redT is able to offer a vanadium electrolyte rental option to its customers, which offsets the abnormally high vanadium price. This allows redT to continue to offer its systems at competitive prices which deliver attractive business model returns for its core customers."

Bushveld said recently that part of their business model would include be renting vanadium. If this is option RED is referencing then it would not need financing by them. Lack of clarity here so could be BAD NEWS.

When reading a RNS I always look for any hint of or actual BAD NEWS so lets look for some here. I'll take it section by section.

"This figure is itself a subsection of redT's overall pipeline which stands at £1.07 billion, and comfortably covers analyst forecasts in the market for product sales over the next two years."

The pipeline undoubtably contains elements that will not make it to the contract stage but a current amount of prospects and near term probably signings the figure of over a billion is impressive. I'm sure nobody can deny that. What it does do is give PIs a yardstick against which RED has to perform. We'll see but no BAD NEWS here as far as I can see.

"redT has previously stated its intention to win a multi-MWh project in the UK market and the Company is currently in final stage discussions on such a project."

Final stage and thats the first I've heard of it. Don't know who its with and I don't particularly care. It is also another yardstick against which RED's performance will be judged. I don't think anybody can call this BAD NEWS.

Ran out of characters. More to follow.

Thanks for sharing what Scott said Interesting about aiming for the big stuff. Can't say that RED lacks ambition.

Its bit early for predictions but I think that, if things go well, we could see that earlier than Dec 2019. There's so much big potential out there and the worldwide political climate (not Brexit of course) is very favourable for RED so anything could happen including a TO.

Its not a done deal by any means but 2019 could be the year when investors truly see the potential value realised.

Yes there is much positivity surrounding flow machines in general and RED in particular although you might doubt that if you listened to some of the posts.

I get the feeling that there is so much going on in the background. There has been no bad news from RED and they have enough staff to be making things happen. RED had a successful exhibition in OZ in October and nothing has been announced from that direction for example. According to someone I spoke to at RED, they had lots of interest from the exhibition and before that as well, all from OZ. Apparently it take 6-12 months to finalise a deal from first contact so there may well be lots in the pipeline.

My concern is that RED may not be in a position to accept orders due to lack of capacity. I'd really like to hear how the production set up is progressing at Jabil. Jabil has plenty of experience elsewhere of dealing with flow machine production so it shouldn't be a problem but I'd like to be reassured.

Still, things are coming to a head and we may well have a nice Christmas present in the form of very good news shortly.

I think the odds on finalising the German deal must be well on the favour side given they got most of it sorted and approved back in September I believe. If I wasn't already invested here, I'm sure I'd take a punt on RED to deliver the deal and consequently for the SP to react. Perhaps a 100% upside or more. Not a bad return within a month.