Member Info for Mikemine

i don't know much about these people but I don't think they have the financial clout that RED is looking for. I might well be wrong though.

http://www.gsenergystoragefund.com/content/about/the-market.aspx

This is a study of home energy storage with a surprising find, or is it? Conditions will be different for industrial users so the findings might be different but its something that large users will be checking on and should give an advantage to RED.

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/battery_degradation_costs_homeowners_400_a_year_argues_new_study

Yellowf1, they won't sell for an immediate profit. IIs tend to hold for fairly long periods, years in most cases. Companies like RED need a constant supply of money until they don't. They need to spend to make a business that will make money, much more than the funds they raise, in the long term. IIs need an incentive to invest above the case for investment to minimise risk. Thats where the discount comes in. It nearly always hurts the SP short term but ,if the business is successful, the SP will benefit greatly.

The threat of fundraising is always with us and bears heavily on the SP all the time. Thats why SPs gain traction once companies become cash flow positive and the need for further funding (dilution) recedes. Usually nothing new has happened within the company except the funding issue more or less disappears.

Hope this helps.

I went on the Monash site to try to find out if the unit was up and running. I couldn't but found this and from it I deduced that RED was supplying the only source of energy storage for the whole project. Its probably that we will hear more of this in the near future IMHO. Another order?

https://www.monash.edu/net-zero-initiative

Bobf, It seems people thought I was berating the guys that were/are wildly out in the predictions and looking back at my post I can see why some thought that. What I was really saying was that with so many posters giving a prediction I thought there should be more of them adding to discussions.

Predictions are not my strong point and I try to keep away from them. As for RED, AIM stocks are primarily driven by news and SP's tend to drift down without it. Trying to predict news might be safer than SPs but even here we are handicapped as things are moving fast and we will probably be surprised by where the next bit of news comes from, and so might the BOD. We know about Anglian, we know about the German project, we know about the german finance and we know about various small projects in Africa and OZ. What don't we know? Almost everything else so how do we make a prediction?

The only prediction I'm willing to make is that RED will continue to grow the order book and start delivering GEN3 around the end of the year. Worries? Yes I have plenty but thats normal for a company at this stage of development so nothing to get excited about. I await with interest the finalisation of the german finance deal and that should point the way forward. Would I sell any shares now? Not a chance.

32 posters presumably. Where are they now? Have they nothing to say?

I've only just seen this on ADVFN's website although its been there for ages it seems.

"CEO McGregor. “We have had plenty of interest from prospective customers. We want to focus on getting the initial 12 systems out there.” The Jabil tie-up, which is a long term collaboration, is an interesting one in that it provides third party validation of the technology. It also reveals the ambition of both sides as the US firm will be looking to mass produce units for sale around the world – so obviously believes REDT has legs. “Interestingly, they found us,” said McGregor. “Jabil had a team searching storage globally because they wanted to get into the market. They decided they wanted to go into flow batteries. “After carrying out due diligence on number of companies they decided to go with us.”"

If that not a clue that Jabil might bid for RED I don't know what is. Pure conjecture of course.

Not directly related to storage and I'd rather the figures related to consumption not generation but clearly solar is growing in the UK.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Renewables-Share-In-UKs-Power-Generation-Hits-Record-High.html

In OZ most of new solar projects now have plans for storage and the UK should be no different. Thats without retro-fitting. The market is going to be just enormous IMHO.

Have a good weekend all.

I won't get in to your tiff with OldFool but I must take some issue with you about the current position of GEN3. I agree that it hasn't been commissioned but it has been sold to Anglian(For delivery Q4 2018 I believe). RED are also taking orders from other interested parties

"We've received significant pre-release demand for our Gen 3 units to date and we are very pleased to now launch Gen 3 publicly to the market." From June's RNS

Note it says "demand" not interest.

Somewhere else, maybe the interims, it says they re now sorting out the production with the manufacturers, presumably Jabil.

Deliveries are expected to start around the end of the year

OK, you have a beef about the time it has taken to get GEN3 to market but you've got to get beyond that and see where RED is now. See where we are by Christmas.........thats this year not next.

Anybody in Melbourne next week? RED are exhibiting. Here's the list of energy storage exhibitors.

https://www.all-energy.com.au/en/visit/exhibitors/#search=d%3D101825%257C158_104343%26lo%3D0%26rpp%3D12

Clearly there some bad memories and bad feeling about what happened in the past and Scott has some credibility deficit issues with some of you. I've re-read lots of the RNS's regarding GEN3 updates and operational updates and must say I'm greatly impressed with the progress RED has made over the last 2 years. As far as I can see H2 2018 has been flagged for some time as the delivery of GEN3 and RED has kept to this timeline. Way back they may have been guilty of overoptimism but, if true, then its all part and parcel of what happens in this type of company. Things don't always go to plan for a whole variety of reasons.

Personally I think its more healthy to concentrate on where we are now which is the cusp of fulfilling the business plan and delivering commercial growth. The odds are that they will want extra cash, thats normal for this type of company, but they might not if they have received upfront money from Anglian. If they had finalised the details of the German deal I would be more confident in this aspect.

I will probably be accused of seeing RED through rose tinted glasses and that might be true but you can only see things the way you do. For me this is a great investment until I think otherwise.

OldFool13, I never ceased to be amazed at posters ability to find things out
"It is extremely interesting that the prices Red are quoting companies has increased by around 20% after the German deal landed."
I know I'm useless at research but where on earth did you get the information?
It is indeed extremely interesting and says something although I'm not totally sure what t is.

Thank you for that faramog.

So basically you think they have under delivered and are less than open about things, in fact verging on the misleading. Its a point of view I respect but can't fully concur with but I haven't been with RED for 2.5 years although prior to investing I kept coming over to see what progress they were making now and then.

The rest of your post refers to GEN3 and the supply of vanadium. I have seen no data on GEN3 but RED says that it compares favourably to competition. I don't think RED's offering to customers is just about GEN3 though. As I understand it, some of the additional staff make up a finance procurement section which packages the whole thing up in a business model for each individual customer's requirement. Its a rounded package which offers customers a one stop solution for their energy storage programme. Correct me if I'm wrong in this. Thats a very attractive offering which I think will be a winner. Under those circumstances it doesn't really matter if GEN3 is the best. It just needs to fulfil the storage needs of the model and, in this respect, it appears to be successful. I understand that the German order is not an order until the finance is in place and the ink is dry but to get as far as they have is demonstration to me that RED's business model is working. Anglian has certainly bought in to it and the guy in charge of renewables there. I can remember his name, is no mug. The next 3-6 months will indicative of RED's longer term prospects IMHO

As far as Vanadium is concerned I have no deep understanding of that market or supply capacity but it is usually the case that when a resource goes up in price investment comes in and the price stabilises somewhat and some circumstances declines. I have no idea if this will happen with Vanadium but if it gets too high then vanadium products will be priced out of the market and prices will fall. Schoolboy stuff I know. This will effect other Vanadium users as well. The question is are flow machines better enough against others in the market to make the increases in prices that will follow to still attract customers? The other question is can saving in cost in other areas compensate for the increased cost of Vanadium? Certainly economies of scale usually help in this direction. So, although the price Vanadium will be a problem, can RED still gain market share? My opinion is they can but its a risk factor that we have to monitor.

Summing up, the development of GEN3 was behind expectations, which is by no means uncommon with this type of product developments, and its not clear if it is the best of class but does it ultimately matter. RED's business plan and model seems to be working but there is a risk in the price and maybe the supply of Vanadium.

Its a risky business investing so you look at things from different angles, make your mind and take appropriate action. My action was to invest but it might be different for others. Thats called the Market.

Faramog, what is the Anglian project if it isn't an order. Its necessarily small agreed but, if Anglian like the results, this could turn in to a large order. You have to start somewhere after all.

A couple of posters have said they think the management is poor and I don't see why. I'd be very interested to hear your views as why you put them in the poor category.

Lots of charts and graphs here.

http://www.ironoakenergy.capital/blog/financing-energy-storage-a-cheat-sheet

The market for funding energy is getter bigger all the time so its another validation of Scott's assertion in the last video. I expect a preliminary statement about the £120mn mentioned any time soon judging by the speed that the German financing arrangement was initialed. That will unlock the pipeline.

"No politicking on this site)" I disagree. What might happen if these latest Labour doctrines come to pass is very relevant to what they would do to industry, energy and RED's SP.

The 70's was just a culmination of the build up of union power in the 50's and especially the 60's. It wasn't just the Beatles and mods. The excesses of the use of union power came to a head in the 70's but their roots lay much earlier. nationalised industries, and I worked in one of them, became stifling places where lazy or incompetent people could find a niche that paid well. Forget innovation and initiative. No change was good. Today's world can be frightening with the speed of change and new concepts but if the UK doesn't take part we will quickly be left behind and any amount of nationalisation and Government intervention will not prevent that.

The 70'. Ah they were the days. Took you at least 12 weeks to get a phone line, some cases were 2 years. My father bought a fridge from the gas board, took them 13 weeks to deliver. Long strikes on railways, docks and mines etc. Not for nothing were we called the sick man of Europe. Yes they certainly were the days.

Unfortunately not many voters were around or remember the 1970's in the UK and the policies of nationalisation will seem very attractive. The Labour party is proposing to nationalise the energy sector amongst other industries. So who knows what will happen if Labour wins the next election and, if the Tories don't get their act together, thats a real prospect.

As far as RED is concerned it looks to me that they are a sitting duck at the moment for someone who wants to come in to this market on the cheap. Even if they paid a 100% premium it would be a bargain IMHO. The company has entered a vulnerable stage where they have a great product, have started gaining traction in the market and have the company more or less sorted out structurally. £160mn for this set up is peanuts for most of these big boys. Whether the ii's would accept that offer is open to debate but I really can't see RED being independent in 18 months time.

Here's a link to Centrica's Cornwall project where RED are participating.

https://www.centrica.com/innovation/cornwall-local-energy-market

As part of the project The Olde House, a holiday complex, is using RED as the chosen storage capacity. Its even given space on their website.

https://www.theoldehouse.co.uk

It would be nice to get some feedback from the user or Centrica. I can't use a phone at the moment so if anybody else wants to make a couple of calls it might be illuminating.

Pinarello, welcome. I hope you can give us some input on what you think of the storage market prospects and RED in particular. You don't have to be particularly polite, just say it as it is for you.

As far as manufacturing, RED has a production agreement with Jabil, a large global manufacturing company. It also has its own small site in the UK, mainly for pilot projects I believe but I might be wrong here. Jabil recently announced that it was going to close it's UK presence and expand it's site in Italy. We think that this would probably be the place where the units for the German order with be made. I think I've got that right but others might put me straight if not.