Member Info for MikeGP

gls44

"A methodological remark - methinks that TCF value to Sound of TE-5 is not equal of TCF value of TE-10. "
---

Good point,... and it may not be the same for Sidi, either,...

Aplogies--- error in the previous calc---TE 10 recovery factor was set at 90%,.... and not 50% as per my notes. There is of course an argument that it should be higher than the 505 I have allocated if it flows well etc.,

MID-CASE

Sidi-Moktar Licence tcf... from 6.7/8.9/11.2 Basin Model

Inferred TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Resource valuation @ £'s/share

Inferred 8.9 1.5 50% 4.45 5% 0.33
Total 8.9 4.45 0.33

Tendrara Licence- Tagi and Paleozoic

Well TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Chance of success £'s/share

TE-5 0.651 1.5 50% 0.33 50% 0.24
TE-6
TE-7
TE-8
TE-9 0 1.5 50% 0.00 50% 0.00
TE-10 1.43 1.5 50% 0.72 50% 0.54
TE-11 0.00 1.5 50% 0.00 50% 0.00

Total 2.08 1.04 0.78

Inferred Resource 20 tcf... from 7/20/34 Basin Model

Inferred TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Resource valuation @ £'s/share

Inferred 17.92 1.5 50% 8.96 5% 0.67

Combined Resource £'s share
Sidi-Moktar 0.33
Tendrara 0.78
Inferred 0.67
Total £'s/share 1.79

To PI's at 47% of licence 0.84

Sundaysun,...... I ran some calcs a few days ago posted on here my low, mid, high, cases and asked if anyone wanted to comment and share their calcs.

I've posted my mid-case calc below; my assumptions are based on this
20tcf Basin, Volumes quoted by the company to date in respect of the discoveries around Tendrara and the voles quoted for Sidi

Clearly this is just based on my assumptions and at the end of the day it is only worth what somas prepared to pay for it!!

Anyway here goes:

I have attributed 50% recovery rate to all
I have attributed 50% Chance of Success to drilled and tested discoveries ( could arguably be higher)
I have attributed 5% CoS to inferred resources not drilled or tested
This has been applied to the Blanc of the Basin--- ie 20tcf minus TE5 Horst and TE10
I have used the £1.50/tcf guidance for both Sidi and Tendrara
I have assumed that we won't drill TE-11
I have made no allowance for cash at hand etc., etc

Finally I have applied the 47% licence

I get a mid case to SOU of £2.22, or £1.04 after the 47% reduction.

My low case calc is £1.11/£0.52 and high is £4.42/£2.08
________

MID-CASE

Sidi-Moktar Licence tcf... from 6.7/8.9/11.2 Basin Model

Inferred TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Resource valuation @ £'s/share

Inferred 8.9 1.5 50% 4.45 5% 0.33
Total 8.9 4.45 0.33

Tendrara Licence- Tagi and Paleozoic

Well TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Chance of success £'s/share

TE-5 0.651 1.5 50% 0.33 50% 0.24
TE-6
TE-7
TE-8
TE-9 0 1.5 50% 0.00 50% 0.00
TE-10 1.43 1.5 90% 1.29 50% 0.97
TE-11 0.00 1.5 50% 0.00 50% 0.00

Total 2.08 1.61 1.21

Inferred Resource 20 tcf... from 7/20/34 Basin Model

Inferred TCF IN PLACE £'s/ TCF Recovery Factor TCF Recoverable Resource valuation @ £'s/share

Inferred 17.92 1.5 50% 8.96 5% 0.67

Combined Resource £'s share
Sidi-Moktar 0.33
Tendrara 1.21
Inferred 0.67
Total £'s/share 2.22

To PI's at 47% of licence 1.04

Ecosselibre.....

What makes you think there is nothing?

There you go:
____

Sound 1st Qtr Presentation states following flow rates..- post stimulation---Slide 5

https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1602/se-ip-q119-v5c.pdf

TE-6 = 17mmscf/d
TE-7 = 32mmscf/d

And for TE-10 to be commercially viable,.. we need only 1.5-2.0mmscf/d?..... even less if the Strat trap is in play.

Doesn't seem like a big ask, given that they have reported natural fractures and similar porosity and permeability to the TE5 Horst.

It's the permeability which is more important than the porosity.-- and in this case, the TE-10 info that they have assessed to date,..the company has said that both are similar to the TE-5 Horst.

So fingers crossed,.. indications are good,.. and the flow rate required to make this commercial is quite modest to those that were reported on our other commercial discovery,... I did post them previously, a few days ago, but can't remember exact figures off the top of my head,...

."It is not possible to provide advice on what we expect to announce OR WHEN...However ,our announcements will be driven by price sensitive information during the operation
___

There you are then. If the un-stimulated flow rate is sufficient to say that the well is commercial then it will have to be announced at that time.--- so circa two weeks from the start of the operation. ie end of March.

https://www.wg-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Longmoor-Training-Presentation-November-2015.pdf

Applicants are also encouraged to go to the spelling ACADEMY.---- FFS!

Tap,

I think he is signalling that he expects us to be sold before that point.-... which is pretty much what seems to be the general view, .. although the cannot say it explicitly.

The process,... as I understand could be this...---

TE-10 test.... stimulated and un-simulated
Update the basin model
Finalises GSA--- now look that negotiation is going to be influenced by the results to TE-10,.. as I believe it was reported that BM said that it might now be the new hub,... if the volume identified is higher than the TE 5 Horst.
I believe the finalising of the GSA will also require the finalising of the FEED, the BOT for the pipeline and the finance required--- which will be provided by ENAGAS and the 'consortium'

I think we are then properly 'on the market'... with all boxes ticked.

That is not to say that an offer could not turn up at any time,... even a conditional offer etc., dependant upon the above items being delivered with a set time frame or cost structure.

Best

IMHO ... the problem with the BoD,... now suggesting Sidi is really of very little significance is that they have a LOW case estimate of 6.7Tcf shown against the asset,... and a high case of 11.2Tcf.

Even the low case,.. seems to me,.. to have significant potential value?

And if it does have very little value,... as they are suggesting,.. then why did we even buy it as a back up plan. Why buy something that isn't worth much? The logic doesn't make sense.

Final Investment Decision (FID) In the energy project context, FID stands for “Final Investment Decision”. ... To reach FID, a project has to have a wide range of contracts and permits in place which have allowed it to agree its investment structure and terms with its finance providers (both debt and equity).

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/259952048/renault-to-return-to-iran-deputy-minister

Being reported in several publications/agency's

Phil,..

There are obvious benefits for Shell,.. in so far as the knowledge gained will further de-risk there acreage and potentially offer economies of scale in respect of materials, rigs,.. etc., in country.

I would certainly think they must be one of the obvious suitors and might help bidding up the LE outcome.

Txs for replies,... and thank you and the others for the feedback from the meet.

Hopefully we will hear from a few others today.

Best

So,..

Fair point about drilling a duster,... and the impact that might have, especially if TE-10 delivers........ was there any discussion of using the 'third' drill monies to drill SM instead,... or re-enter TE 2 etc.,---- one or two posters have stated that the vibe appears to be drill and test TE-10 and then we are done? Any chat of SM at all,..... or James' very 'clever idea"???

eskers... and if you run with that research a little further,.. ie check out the man he is with....you find..

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/pg3hmgZhwLNTmB

sorry.... 50% recovery= 1.7Tcf...

jag..

In respect of the BM comment about £1.10 for TE-10.

I wasn't at the booze up,.... but the figure he states can already be inferred from the TE-10 update;

If we look at 3.4Tcf high case figure:

3.4Tcf x 50% recovery= 1.4 Tcf.... to SOU @ 47%= circa 0.7Tcf---- x £1.50/Tcf= £1.10 to us.

txs... ok,..but that just leads to the question,. when is FID target date!!

Can you someone ask ,.. when does the GSA decision hit the critical path?