Member Info for Miggy007

Ghia- you know what happens if you don't believe in the 'code'. Keith Richards turns up and breaks a string on hos guitar.:)

Not quite sure what it is about a blind placebo trial people don’t get. If the market knew the drug didn’t work the SP would be 15p. We had a mini rally to 41p and I think we’ll go well higher than that before results. Predicting the SP is impossible as it’s been shown but I don’t think many would have thought we’d go as low as we did after hitting the 70’s. Just need to be patient.

Still find the following line quite outstanding from the piece:
Richard Marsden, head of Synairgen, said: 'We can stop people from having that bad second week’.

gkb- hindsight is a wonderful thing but you are right the world should have been better prepared. Respiratory viruses seem to be prevalent over the last couple of decades almost like they are testing us for weaknesses. The Bill Gates TED talks were 5 years ago. For anyone who hasn’t seen it worth a watch.

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en#t-500953

We do. But it isn't an either or deal. I genuinely believe the drug could have benefit against both and both are huge markets in their own right. COPD is the more established condition clearly but COVID could well be any size market too and it probably comes down to where you believe the virus is heading i.e. petering out or about to become an established virus (which i believe it will unfortunately). It's too contagious and too hard to detect to stamp on completely and once winter comes it will have its ideal breeding scenario again, hardening of the virus itself making it tougher to kill and people spending more time indoors where we know it spreads quickly on surfaces etc.

JAP- you need to bear in mind too that from a market cap perspective SNG only valued around £56 million. If it proves efficacy to any positive degree against COPD or COVID the current SP will be long gone. It's a risk sure, but what isn't and the upside is far greater than the downside from the current SP. Anyone any good with juggling numbers should see that.

JP- Personally I was well aware of COPD before buying this stock, and i agree its a huge market potentially, but to think the second wave won't happen on a large scale because people know to wash their hands is ridiculous. Certainly a good thing to do but people will catch this outside and in workspaces where they won't realistically wash their hands more often than they touch their face. Spanish flu second wave was far worse than the first although admittedly it did mutate but its too early to say if this will significantly.

Bebeto- Yes its coincidence. Hospital trials finished recruiting a while back. The home trial parameter hasn't been extended 40 miles from Southampton, so not us I'm afraid. Glad she recovered though.

JP001- purely from a Covid viewpoint we have lost over 40,000 people so far, potentially (with no vaccine) we will lose a lot more if we have a second wave this winter. Assuming another 40,000 that needed ventilators as we were told it was a 50-50 chance of death if progressing onto a ventilator. These were the most critical. There would also be a huge market who fall below this critical level who would benefit from having an antiviral that would potentially stop them becoming critical. Thats just this country. Say you had it JP, you are told you have it within three days of showing symptoms. You have the chance of taking a drug which can protect your lungs by preventing virus replication therefore stopping you deteriorating to the point where you need to go to hospital. You don't know if you will get that bad but you don't know you won't either. The time advantage this gives your body also allows you to start producing antibodies. You have survived. Given the choice and the fact nobody knows how their body will react would you take the drug SNG001? Even as a precaution. Multiply this scenario the world over and I think it's fair to say you have a huge market.

JP001-Maybe just because they thought they could help people and lets be honest COVIDis a potentially massive market in it's own right. With hindsight its allowed them to fundraise and advance all leads they are pursuing. You are sat there with an antiviral lung infection drug and COVID comes along. You'd be mad not too pursue it for multiple reasons.

Interested to see that the home trials have not widened the recruitment area beyond 40 miles from Southampton. That would suggest that recruitment is going ok.

Just seeing reported on Sky news that the Govt has admitted that R is above one in parts of the country. No surprise really with all the demonstrations and packed beaches.

Agree Sharesting- yes Nolupus Summer is a bit of a vague deadline but I suppose it gives them wriggle room. Hopefully we don't have to wait too long we will see. Should the COPD trial results be positive it can only strengthen the negotiating position for SNG with this drug if/when they sit down with interested parties.

Wonder when unblinded COPD data will drop. I'm hoping it could be next week but thats not a firm opinion. Must be about three weeks now since they unblinded?

Seb- can't see what you have written because you are filtered! hooray!. But i bet its negative. Not a day for you on here really, lets hope you get caught with your pants down and miss the boat on the ride up:)

Probably right, from memory we seem to have had II selling going on here for months and I don't believe larger II selling has overlapped suggesting it was either coincidence or is was orchestrated. Finncap would be the obvious party in the frame. A while back i did check all the different TR'1s and at that point Griffiths, Lansdowne and Link (Link did sell some back in September i think it was) never overlapped in their offloading suggesting to me it may have been orchestrated. I couldn't work out why Link were sat there not selling when they were seeing the SP slip before their eyes and their obvious obligations to the woodford investors, now we know why they already had the sale lined up. From around March anyways.

Definately Acacia sells imo, no one else would have off loaded 4.5m in one hit. As mentioned they had to raise funds to pay off the £35m downpayment to Link. Interesting question is who bought?. I think they have till end of play tomorrow to satisfy that although they may well be done for now. Not sure they have sticky fingers tbh but either way I see it as a positive. Let them sell and be on their way if thats their plan.

Royal Doulton - sure. No problem at all.

So looking at the Acacia agreement dated 04/06/20: An escrow payment of £35 million (part of the 224m deal) was required to be paid by the 6th business day after the 4th June. Hence I believe the dumping simultaneously of the PLC holdings which I assume allow quick return of funds.

Date of Agreement:04/06/20

Clause 5.7 If:
(a) the Escrow Amount is not received in the Escrow Account by the sixth (6th) Business Day after the date of this Agreement, at any time thereafter the Seller may terminate this Agreement.

‘The Company expects to fund the Escrow Account with proceeds from the sale of the assets acquired in the Portfolio Transaction.’

As per the latest RNS Acacia sold 25 million shares in Open Orphan. Reducing from 6.51% >2.29%. We know they started reducing in Synairgen from the 8th June and almost certainly carried on reducing in yesterday’s high volume. Today was always going to be a difficult day owing to the above reasons and the need for Acacia to raise the down payment from the existing portfolio putting pressure on Synairgen SP. Once they are done selling we should get some fresh air and start moving up imo. DYOR.

Liam- I think so yeah. I’d rather a high churn day than a low volume straight line day. Obviously takers for the sells and price stayed steady so all good. Be nice now to be rid of the big II sellers, hopefully then upwards and onwards.