Member Info for mick2020

Tradinglad,

I got in only last week, so my average is way higher. I’m currently waiting on an RNS with results from the Californian assets, but if that is good, I’ll buy more!

Gizzard, the company receives income from the producing wells in California (8 wells?), but I think it is fair to say that the asset value ( especially in the UK) is currently driving up the price.

Well done Tradinglad, you got in at a perfect moment.
With a market cap of only £52.57m RBD is still cheap, so no doubt you’ve doubled your investment soon!

Oldabutnowisa,

Obviously the excellent news from West Newton is key here, but my “analysis” is based on the total expected NPV of the company, as shown on slide 4 of the latest company presentation (see link below) with some of my own adjustments. As I mentioned last week already, I’m a little bit worried that the company had overestimated the expected value (NPV) of the Californian assets.
However, the news from Britain is so good that even if you assume that NPV in California would be only 30% of the shown value (235 mln US$), then the company is still undervalued (based on a market cap of 40-50% of risked NPV).

So even moderately positive news about California will be a boost again for the company.

Keep in mind though that the lower oil zone in West Newton will be a much greater boost still, if the flowtest in Q3 is positive....

All looking very good therefore in my opinion! :-)

Good luck all!

https://reabold.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Reabold-Presentation-April.pdf

Bought more shares this morning. I agree with trytryandagain actually: based on very conservative assumptions regarding the Californian assets (only 30% of NPV), fair value is currently between 1.4 and 1.6 pence. With any decent news about California it is immediately above 2p.
With good news about California and especially a positive flow test in the oil zone in A2 (Cabedy reef formation), it doubles once again..... :-)

Amazing words from the Master misleader! And now again... you left the Aminex forum well before the BOD there “sold out” (in your words). Of course you have the right to do so, but pretending that the company is doing great but that you cannot comment anymore because you are too “weak” is simply very misleading.... Your skills in misleading are excellent though, I have to give you that. The poor guys remaining at the AEX are still brainwashed and even defending you! Unbelievable.Thank god I never believed any of the garbage you wrote on the forum there.

And with that, I shall leave this forum. This is not a company for me. Smells too much of another tip-top fabrication...

Ah, the same pretentious stories as when you were desperately pumping Aminex... Oh, forgot then you suddenly disappeared because you were too “poorly”..... Well, glad to see you have fully recovered. It’s ironic really. Duping lots of people with your blown-up Aminex stories and now exactly the same again with AAOG. Are you paid for you comments? Oh forgot, that question was even raised with Aminex at some point...
You’re still claiming to be an ex CEO I guess? Good friends of course with the CEO, who regularly trusts you with market sensitive information? Sure!!!

I should have known better... If Tip-top is pumping, stay out, it’s a swindle.

What a nasty response Tiptop. I think Angela6611 could be quite right in fact. I don’t believe that AAOG set the 7” liner in the Djeno as originally planned, otherwise they could have isolated it with a simple mechanical plug. The fact that they cemented it up tells me that the hole was not cased. If, to save costs they simply extended the 12 1/4” hole to TD, incurring crossflow from the Djeno into the Mengo (with associated mud losses) they may have screwed up this well properly.

Hopefully they can recover the well easily still, or at least do a cheap sidetrack, but right now it is very unclear. Or what are your sources? Why do you pretend to know so much more?

I recently read somewhere that these small trades can be the result of automatic trades to cover some "account" or "platform" fees. Some "platforms" do this monthly apparently.

I’m in here with a modest amount but I’m very happy to see this moving up. With any half decent results from California I do see this moving past 2p in the near future. With a good flow test in Q3..... 3p easily....

BobLondon, The West Newton news is obviously excellent. The only problem is, net NPV from the gas discovery is less than 30% of net NPV in California.... Only if the potential oil discovery underneath is included it will be greater than the Californian assets.

Luckyman (and others) Obviously I hope you are right, all I want is the update on the Californian flow rates as the company promised in their latest RNS on this, a month ago. Unfortunately no news is usually bad news on AIM, and the stakes are high here. Are these estimated NPV’s for real or is RBD just another hype company, like so many others on AIM. Total production must be at least 2000 bbl/d before I’m willing to believe their estimated NPV. If it is, I’ll buy more shares. If not, I’ll sell.

With NPV 235 mln (net) for California in the books and 264 mln for West Newton including the oil target I’m not so sure!

“Pumping units are being mobilised this week, with the final permanent production facilities expected to be in place within the next two weeks, at which point both wells will be put onto permanent production. Reabold will inform the market as to the flow rates achieved once the wells are on permanent production.” From one month ago... we urgently need an update. If the results disappoint, a big reserves write-off in California could offset the gains in PEDL183.... If on the other hand the flow rates are good, then this company is immediately a strong buy!

Almost too embarrassing to read... End 2017 Swala were to buy 40% of PAET for $130M. That didn't work. Now they come back looking to purchase the whole company for that sum.... LOL A wonderful way to get rid of Orca! Is Magufuli shareholder in Swala perhaps? What a joke!

Teaboytalk,

In the areas where I have worked this would have only been possible in monobore or tapered string completions. I have no practical experience however with beam-pump wells, so I’m not sure either. The expansion ratio (ID tubing/casing) may still be acceptable.

But water coming from the reservoir is usually bad news, especially if you still expect to recover many millions in NPV from it....

Thanks Teaboytalk,

Can this be done through-tubing, if the leak is in the casing/liner in the Lowe completion?

Besides, are these wells not beam-pump/sucker-rod wells? So very small ID tubing, so I doubt/wonder if you can fix a casing leak (even with an expandable patch) without pulling the tubing.
Finally, where is the water coming from? Hopefully not from the reservoir itself....

I’d to see a flow rate of at least 2000 bopd before I can start believing these numbers.

Hold for now, until further news for me (although with fantastic upside potential)

Correction: not net to RBD, but gross (100%)

If true and volumes are as expected, then approx. 260 mln NPV for RBD net....

Still not bad at all.... :-)

From the April presentation, pre-drill:

Appraisal of Kirkham Abbey gas: 72% COS* for NPV* $247M
Exploration of reef flank Cadeby oil: 24% COS* for NPV* $850M

So more than a billion US$ net to RBD, in the success case.

Very impressive already.... and now the results are even better than expected?

Wow!

The UJO RNS didn’t leave much to the imagination on this:

“The well also encountered hydrocarbon shows within the deeper Cadeby formation, a secondary target. The intersection is consistent with the West Newton A-1 well from which an oil saturated core was recovered”.

It almost sounds too good to be true.... is there a catch?

Intriguing RNS indeed, pity that the CEO doesn’t provide any explanation in the interview.

Some ownership arguments in the background already?

The results of the flow test in Q3 could be truly exciting....