Member Info for mick2020

The minimum off take rate is based on an annual average, not a monthly average.

70 MMscf/d is only just above the break even production rate. With the loss of any income from the TDPC receivables and 4 mln capex this year, I expect a cut in the dividend this year.

A zero growth company;and amazingly, it looks as if 2018 will remain our best year for a while still.

“ Mnazi Bay production 2020 production guidance 65 - 75 MMscf/d (gross)”

So disappointing. Revenues of 19 mln this year then? Bring on 2021....

CT, Base,

Very happy to stand corrected. I had totally forgotten about the Ziwani carry and the impact is indeed significant. I went back to my spreadsheet, and, like yourselves, I also expect revenues of 18 mln for 2019 (and a tiny profit). If we achieve a rate of 85 MMscf/d in 2020 then revenues of 25 mln are indeed realistic. Makes me feel a bit better already about this share! :-)

My only point of criticism: we must want to grow the company further, so we need real profits, and also look at depreciation. Keep in mind that we have some big investments waiting: MB-5 (31 mln, 100%), facilities compression (41 mln, 100%) and the MB-2 workover (5.3 mln, 100%) , so the company will be spending approx. 24 million in the next few years. The cash balance must grow further. I’ll be satisfied with revenues of 25 mln in 2020 as a minimum… At 90 MMscf/d things start to look really good and we should expect a proper uptick. Let’s open the wells and fast forward to April 2021 please!

Good luck to all!

Had forgotten about the Ziwani carry. Still, I don’t expect total gas sale revenues to be greater than in 2018, but I‘d love to be wrong. I guess we’ll have to wait another 3-4 months before we’ll find out.
The next interesting RNS is probably the CPR around mid February. Let’s hope there are no unpleasant surprises in that one first....

Sorry Base, but again I think you are mistaken.

Have a look at the 2018 annual results, page 22. Under the Ebitdax heading you’ll see a “recurring administrative costs of 6.3 mln”.

The company has been rather secretive about the cash call for operating costs of the operator. They are not even mentioned in the 2018 report, but show up again in the H1 2019 report (as well as earlier reports)

I deeply regret having invested in this company. The worst part is, I’m stuck with this pile of poo for the next couple of years and there’s nothing I can do about it, selling is impossible....

“ Fcf is aften g&a and payable to operator”...

Ha ha, that would be sooo nice!

In our best year so far (2018), revenues from gas sales were 16.2 mln. Please show me how you get to a FCF of 15 mln, after deducting P&O costs, G&A, Capex and even the ”cash call from the operator”.

Fantasy, unfortunately.

Hi Base,

I’m afraid to say that I think that you’re seeing things a bit too positive. Same for many folks on Xtrainvestor in fact.

Assuming 15 mln FCF:

Take off:

6 mln (G&A)
4.16 mln (debt + overdraft)
3 mln (dividend)
3.5 mln for the recurring “payables to the operator” (which show up only in the balance sheet under the “trade and other payables”, see e.g. H1 2019 results)

Which leaves a balance of -1.7 mln….

So while the company may still be profitable under the current accounting practices (and depending on the depletion charge), the cash balance drops…

15 mln CFC is not enough. I wish it was different but I think WEN is only attractive assuming further production growth in future. Right now Katherine must be focusing on reducing costs as much as possible. In fact, I would not be surprised if the final 2019 dividend is cut if Q1 production disappoints again. A company sales price of 50p would be most wonderful of course, but is unfortunately fantasy in my view. Perhaps after a successful MB-5 and flowrates above 100 MMscf/d.

Really hope Kinyerezi extension gets completed this year. We must increase production, and at rates above 90 MMscf/d, the situation will suddenly look very different…

CT,

How did you calculate your FCF? Revenue minus P&O costs minus Capex?

Personally I don’t think find 15 mln very impressive unfortunately. It’s not enough to cover G&A, debt & overdraft payments, dividend, the recurring “payables to the operator” and increase the cash balance at the same time.

We need much higher flow rates unfortunately, unless Katherine finds a way to reduce costs further of course.

Happy New Year to you as well Alph!

2020 is going to be the year of truth for Wentworth. Can the company grow its cash balance in the absence of any TPDC receivables? Was 2019 actually a profitable year? Can the company sustain the dividend at the low flowrates that we are currently facing? With a total debt of 4.16 mln currently outstanding (debt + overdraft) we are not out of the woods yet. So far, the company has only been shrinking, but hopefully 2020 will be the turnaround with much higher flowrates. Wishing all shareholders a highly productive 2020, with an average production of at least 90 MMscf/d.....

Smudgers,

My “strong sell” opinion regarding Aminex is simply my honest opinion. I think there is a serous possibility that the company won’t exist anylonger, this time next year.
Besides, what makes a strong sell recommendation worse than a strong buy recommendation? A “strong buy” recommendation can lead to serious losses, so I would say it’s even worse than a “strong sell”recommendation.

Happy for you that you enjoy living in fantasy-land Smudgers. Just ignore my post and buy more shares.... Wentworth of course! :-)

Tanzania,

Since you refer to my expectations for Wentworth for 2020 on this forum, allow me to share my expectations for Aminex on this forum as well.

To me, the Ruvuma Farm-Out RNS from Aminex sounded simply as yet another cleverly phrased delay. I don’t think that anything will het fast tracked, and the latest confusion with Solo points to that.
Ntorya remains an untested, expensive and high risk project, and given that TPDC seems serious about drilling a few exploration wells themselves (Mnazi Bay North), I don’t believe that Aminex will get a licence anytime soon.

Sorry to perhaps burst your bubble....

https://www.mwananchi.co.tz/habari/kitaifa/TPDC-kutumia-Sh1-3-trilioni-kuchimba-visima-vya-gesi/1597296-5334302-tya9up/index.html

(Translation required)

It’s such a shame that nothing happens in Tanzania. Production isn’t growing, we’re still waiting on the licence extension, nobody knows if and when Kinyerezi I extension will be completed and NAV accretive deals are surely impossible to find.

Hugely disappointing, so I can understand why Eskil left, on his own initiative or not.

It’s again a terrible year for WEN shareholders unfortunately, despite the dividend. I don’t expect much chance in 2020 either: TPDC appears serious in their plans to drill a few exploration wells themselves (Mnazi Bay North, see below), so I suspect we’ll need to wait on the outcome of that. But as long as we get paid for the gas I’m not too worried.... even if it takes another 5 years.

https://www.mwananchi.co.tz/habari/kitaifa/TPDC-kutumia-Sh1-3-trilioni-kuchimba-visima-vya-gesi/1597296-5334302-tya9up/index.html

(Translation required)

Bought back the million shares that I sold for 1.4 a while back. Amazing deal!

Demuule,

I don’t know the current gas price in the UK, but I think it’s quite low at the moment. I didn’t include the gas numbers so plenty of upside! Hence the billion USD value!

As some here will know, I don’t like the Californian assets and Parta is minor stuff as well (in my opinion) but PEDL183 is huge! :-) it compensates for all!

Looking at the base case oil volumes only: assuming a recovery of 35%, then a STOIIP of 146.4 mln barrels will give 0.35 x 0.39 x 146 = 19.9 mln barrels. At 50$/bbl this correspondent with 996 mln US$.... take of 200 mln for opex and capex, and you have a value of about 800 mln US$... (as a conservative back-of-the-envelope estimate)

Keep quiet, buy more! ??

PDMSpiper,

This time I’m absolutely delighted with the news as well. (and amazed). We’re quickly talking about a billion USD in value for Reabold here.... :-)

Wow! Fantastic news!

Not sure why you find this very positive Perkin. Looks to me that you guys have some very strong competition in exploration projects. I hope for you that Aminex will win, or at least get a piece of the pie, but I’m certainly not betting any money on it...

Orca is ramping up nicely, good for them.

A new presentation from WEN yesterday. More of the same unfortunately, still waiting on growth. Kinyerezi extension slipped to mid 2020 now... All very frustrating.

https://wentplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-10-03-TZOG-final.pdf