Member Info for mick2020

After sharing the webinar link yesterday, I got curious and read a bit more about YCA. Have to say: I like it: a very simple business model, ~30% discount on the value, no debt and a promising outlook. I'm in! :-)

Open to anybody and free of charge. (note: I am not a SHG shareholder; just sharing)

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-121120

Open to anybody and free of charge. (note: I am not a YCA shareholder; just sharing)

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-121120

Open to anybody and free of charge. Also a good opportunity to question Katherine about growth plans, closed periods, share buy backs, profitability (or the lack thereof), progress at the Kinyerezi extension power station, export pipelines, etc. etc..

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-121120

The next 6-8 wells.... wow, as always you are very optimistic Perky. Personally I don't expect anything to happen in the next few months. I would be amazed if ARA drills even a single well before securing the licence extension again, and for investments beyond the minimum scope I'm sure there needs to be a clear route to market (i.e. FID taken of the export gasline). Like all O&G companies, ARA / Zubair will be scrutinizing projects far more carefully right now after this COVID crisis, and the financial tragidy that is has created.

Let's see how interested they really are, in investing in Tanzania, with monetisation uncertain and many years away. Perhaps relinquishing the licence is more attractive.... Have you seen a seen a recent announcement from ARA that they are celebrating their take over in Tanzania?? I haven't....

Oh, and the 1 BCF demand from Kenya.... sure, but several years AFTER the export pipeline has been constructed and Kenya's power stations have been upgraded. In 2030 perhaps?

Congratulations Tanzania, it certainly is very encouraging news. Now let’s hope that the Zubs are still willing to invest and that the next well is actually a good one!

enjoy the rollercoaster!

Sharper than a razorblade Tanzania, you so right, the devil is in the detail! I think Tanzania desperately needs the Zubs to fund the pipeline as well, so let's all buy more Aminex shares! ;-) It makes perfect sense!

Sorry Tanzania, I find it difficult to take your posts seriously. Of course the pipeline will cost a fortune, but if Kenya guarantees an offtake rate then I expect that there will be various options for the funding, i.e. the Chinese, the World Bank or various commercial banks. Saying that, I think the pipeline project is only in the feasibility stage yet, so FID will be at least a year (or two?) away, with gas deliveries not starting before 2024 I would think.

Oh, and the gas will obviously come primarily from offshore wells. To me it seems like a great intermediate step, before constructing an LNG plant a few years later.

Could be much more sensible than LNG. Cheaper and easier to build, and TPDC can play a much bigger role.

Perspective is building! :-)

Time to swap your Aminex shares for Wentworth Perky? Or do you still prefer maximum risk?

Wow, that certainly is a nice valuation!! :-) How wonderful that would be. And why not, as soon as we we hit 130 MMscf/d it may even be possible. Perhaps in 2-3 years time?

In the nearer term... I think we could see 30p back, fairly soon actually...

Tanzania,

You have been blatantly promoting Aminex, here and on the Aminex forum. In April you were celebrating the imminent success of Aminex on this forum, all under the guise of countering my warning/expectation that Aminex may default by the end of 2020.

Remember that I was essentially the only person that refuted most of Tiptop's outrageous claims (all obviously leading to extraordinary wealth very quickly), that I warned long time ago already that production from Ntorya is many years away and that Ntorya remains an expensive exploration & appraisal project. I was I think the only person that dared to recommended Aminex as a "strong sell" at 7p. Of course I got crucified for this, but had you listened to me, you would have been much richer than today. Yes, I do think the company is at a serious risk of defaulting soon, sorry if you disagree, but I won't change my view because of that.

But I guess your answer is a clear "No" then.... you will not apologise on this forum for all your hyped-up messages that you have posted here... Funny that you asked me the same in April , when you were claiming victory already.... ( see you message below)

Good luck Tanzania, I'll be happily observing the coming few months from the side-line. I could become quite interesting for Wentworth in fact, so perhaps excitement will return.

"Thought today's announcement would interest some of you on this forum. After all, more than one of you here has continually forecast the imminent demise of Aminex. It's time to eat humble pie and consider an apology. Remember, the deal means Aminex plc are fully funded for a $40m work programme with amazing acreage. What's not to like ?

• Acquire 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic (min. expenditure of US$7 million)
• Drill the Chikumbi-1 exploration well (min. expenditure of US$15 million)
• Complete the negotiation of the Gas Terms for the Ruvuma PSA with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation
• Using the data gathered from Chikumbi-1 and the seismic acquisition, prepare and submit an application for a Development Licence for the Ntorya Location area."

You are deflecting again Tanzania. I think my question was pretty clear: are you going to apologise for all your hyped-up nonsense that you posted here all these years? How many people did you dupe, essentially with your refusal to acknowledge any risk or downside.

“The attraction to stay on is the Omani's wealth and driving force. Can I suggest to you, if licence approval is received, you bunk over there fast to catch the huge rise acoming”

Just another example. Even if you think that the chance of the above happening is 50% (personally I think it is less than 10%), would you buy more shares?

I predicted that Aminex would be bankrupt by the end of 2020, and I have not seen anything to change my view. The company technically bankrupt already. Saying that, I fear that Bob will consider a rescue.... and waste a lot of money on it.

Another Tembo in the making.

Tanzania,

If Aminex doesn’t receive the farmout approval in the next two weeks,, are you going to apologise for all the hyped-up nonsense that you have posted over the years, here and on the Aminex forum? I would think a proper apology would be truly be appropriate....

I doubt that you are man enough for that....

Regrettably, I can only agree with you Sabel. I can understand AXA, and to be honest, if profitability doesn't increase soon (either by an increased production rate or lowered costs), I fear that more will follow... I wish Wentworth had bought back at least some of AXA's shares, at 14p!

Correct (supposedly it's also the reason why the dissenting Norwegian shareholders haven't been bought out yet)

Not sure why though. I suspect (or better: fear!) that it has something to do with their M&A plans...

Sabel,

During the call Katherine mentioned that K1 start-up is now expected in H1 2021 (unsurprising )

Some other interesting comments, that may be of interest:

WEN is likely to use it's take-or-pay provision if annual production is below plateau
Katherine sees little value for Tanzania, for a third gas supplier in Tanzania, given that both WEN and Orca have a take-or-pay agreement
The company is currently in a closed period (without explaining why)

All we need is more demand.... waiting, waiting, waiting....

All the best!

20% dividend increase to silence the shareholders I think....

The results remain crap. G&A costs are still above 5 mln (on an annual basis) and net profit in the first 6 months was only 1.014 mln. A dividend pay-out of 1.2 mln is simply not sustainable in longer term, with only 1 mln profit...

Leicesterboy,

"she has men on the ground and they can get their dirty hands on the cash from their 20% Share"

Really don't understand what you are trying to say, but it surely sounds dodgy. Are you talking about WEN's 32% stake in Mnazi Bay or TPDC's 20%? Or something completely different? What "dirty hands" do yo mean? The hands of the local Tanzanian staff working for Wentworth? Are you a racist by any chance?

"people that are in the Hotel game in Zanzibar" sounds even more dodgy.... your local brothel I guess?

Stay out, that is all I can recommend!

If you think that the “Zubs” will start investing in Ntorys without certain guarantees from the government, such as agreement on the construction of the pipeline or a preliminarily GSA, I think you are a bit naive... At the same time I can’t escape the feeling that the Tanzanian government is not very interested in Ntorya.... Not surprising of course, given that there is no shortage of gas supply.

Personally, I don’t expect anything to happen next week.... let’s wait and see...

All highly unlikely I would say. Spending money on an asset only to compete with Mnazi Bay in the south sounds like a terrible plan. Why not let Aminex go bankrupt and pick it up for next to nothing, in a year or two...

What is the point of investing here...

Perhaps because WEN is a low risk investment, with zero debt, a healthy cash balance and a very good NPV, that currently pays out 7-8% dividend, while we wait on a further production increases that can easily lead to a doubling (or trebling) of the dividend in the next 2 years?