Member Info for mick2020

Jack,

The West Brentwood licence is not the same as the Grizzly licence or the Monroe Swell licence. Sure they have derisked the West Brentwood licence (reduced from 25 to 19.3 mln, now with 3 wells instead of 2), but that’s only a small part.
As I wrote in my original post, an independent reserves review of Grizzly Island and Monroe Swell (Burnett) is exactly what we need. But I guess that’s not the reply you want really... you are also part of the rampathon brigade as well? So frustrating here on this forum!!

“Reabold has earned a 50% interest in the West Brentwood license area in California (United Sates) and will have earned a 50% interest in the Monroe Swell license area following the completion of the two Burnett wells drilled in Q1 2019. Reabold also has the option to earn a 50% interest in the Grizzly Island license”

See: https://reabold.com/projects/reabold-california/

“

Jack, Simon,

See slide 5 of the attached presentation. NPV for West Brentwood VG-3 and VG-4 is 25 mln, it looks pretty clear to me. So what other information do you have about West Brentwood?

https://reabold.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Reabold-Presentation-April.pdf

Good news, very happy to see some numbers from an independent reserves review. It certainly increases confidence, despite being 20% lower than the estimate given by the company in their April presentation.
I’d really like to see an independent review of the Burnett and Grizly island area now. With a total NPV of 200 mln in the books for these assets, they are obviously way more important than Brentwood. 80% of 200 mln would be truly terrific news! (Almost 4x the current market cap..)

It will come Alph, no doubt, but after years of overpromising and under-delivery, sentiment is simply gone. Remember that the GSA was signed 5 years ago (almost to the date exact by the way).
I think WEN is a “show-me-first” company: The share price will start to move up with impressive financial results (profits) and when the company demonstrates that they are delivering on a growth plan that doesn’t take ages....

We need to increase net production!

Finally, some real progress, excellent news. Hopefully this is the start of more exciting news soon.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WEN/wentworth-resources-commercial-operations-date-achieved-5tzlblhhctlgpg6.html

To add to my previous post:

If the company pays US$ 3 mln dividend per year, I would think that annual net profit should be above US$ 7 mln. At what production do we achieve that? At 90 MMscf/d annual average perhaps?

It’s so frustrating, all we need is a step change in demand. And that idiot of a leader is spending all money available on an absurd hydropower project.... so save money....

Indeed. An excellent dividend at this stage (6.7% annual yield!), but in my view not sustainable in the long term Unfortunately, without further production growth. Where is the new GSA?

I liked the new presentation best.

https://wentplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-09-03-IRpack-FINAL.pdf

Bob,

I know you like to keep this forum exclusively for rampers, but just to remind you, I’m a shareholder of RBD too. I just don’t like ramping and I like to keep my comments realistic. And it is a simple fact, the deeper Cadeby Reed formation did not flow, based on the RNS.

Where did they use the nitrogen for the last few days you think, apart from unloading the well and trying to establish flow??

“get bigger equipment that can cope with the oil”. Wow. Interesting. Where did you read this? Or just personal speculation...

Ramp ramp....

Sure, the next well will be optimal for developing the deeper target, but obviously they would have tested this zone in the current well already!

Jim,

I think you are wrong, read the RNS from 17 June again:

“The well also encountered hydrocarbon shows within the secondary target Cadeby formation with an oil saturated core”

All petrophysical data from the upper Kirkham Abbey formation was known before the production test, so not a result from the flow test. The real news from the production test seems to be that the deeper Cabedy Reef formation failed to flow.....

Oil in the upper Kirkham Abbey formation, but not a word about the “original” oil target in the deeper Cabedy reef, which will now be tested in the next well... hmmm.... so no flow from that zone in this well I have to assume...

Nice rampy RNS though!

Thanks Alph,

Very disappointing news, and unfortunately almost typical now for Tanzania. When will Magufuli learn.... what a shame, and what a waste of time...

Jacobsen Electro halted construction without notice???

https://www.mwananchi.co.tz/habari/Kitaifa/Waziri-aagiza-mhandisi-mradi-wa/1597296-5233992-cgk7wf/index.html

(Translator needed)

Hmm.... that saving would indeed not match.

On the other hand: TPDC are expecting to collect 620m/-per year at the initial stage, or about US$ 269k per year. At 0.11 MMscf/d annual average, this matches with a sales price of about 7 US$/Mscf, which sounds quite reasonable.

In any case, it's good news; all we need is production growth. I'd love an announcement from WEN that average production exceeded 100 MMscf/d the last three months...... (would prefer such an announcement over a small dividend in fact)

“gas demand profile will grow gradually each year from 0.11 million standard cubic feet (mmscfd) in next year to 0.78 mmscfd in a year 2028“

Less than peanuts unfortunately.

https://allafrica.com/stories/201908070702.html

Base,

That would be a 10% dividend yield at a share price of 30p,. so 50% above the current price... It is simply not realistic I suspect, and I think you’re going to be heavily disappointed.
Even half the amount you suggest would be a very good dividend at this stage!

I really don’t think it is about WEN vs Aminex any longer. It’s about finding people who want to invest in a company that operates Tanzania, with its erratic leader that doesn’t understand big integrated energy projects.

“With the installation of the refrigeration unit at the Songas Plant scheduled for completion in Q2 2019, well production capability of 130 MMcfd can be sustained until the installation of compression, currently scheduled for completion by the end of 2021. This will provide the ability to expand the level of well production capability from 130 MMcfd to approximately 165 MMcfd by continuing to increase gas produced through the NNGI”

See page 7 of the attached report.

With total production of 61.3 MMcfd in Q1, Orca has indeed plenty of spare capacity too.

http://www.orcaexploration.com/pdfs/2019-Orca-Q1-FULL.pdf

Chris,

Unfortunately, it’s the same old story that Drewky keeps repeating: Orca and WEN do not have any spare capacity, so Ntorya will be developed soon.

Wrong in several ways: both Orca and WEN can increase production capacity significantly, in a relatively short period (months) while further appraisal/exploration targets are present as well. With a capacity of 210 MMscf/d at Madimba, WEN will ultimately want to utilise that completely, if possible. (although I fully admit that Ntorya will play a role in that, at some point)

Drewky,

As neighbourly relations seemed to be improving a little lately, I’m surprised to read that you are spreading misinformation again about Wentworth.

“neighbours confessing almost full capacity”...

Sorry, but that is wrong. Wentworth is currently producing around 80 MMcsf/d, and the route to a plateau production of 130 MMscf/d is very clear, with six non-producing zones in the current well-stock. See slide 9 in the attached presentation for more details.

COD and an updated GSA will trigger the start of various well interventions that will unlock 50 MMscf/d well capacity for Wentworth. Production will be sustained with MB-5 (a new development well) in 2020-2021

Exploration drilling will only commence after that.

https://wentplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019-07-01-IRpack-FINAL-1.pdf