Member Info for mick2020

Sorry, a poorly phrased reply. The key point is that the Ziwani carry only partially explains the lower than expected revenues. These’s still a gap of 7.5 mln.

Stake = 31.94%

Very well spotted HY! Very intriguing in fact. Note that the final report also introduced a “net entitlement to gas production” (page 25) that doesn’t correspond with the 32.94% stake in Mnazi Bay. With the gas price shown as well, it is easy to back calculate:

With a stake of 32.94%, the expected net entitlement in 2018 is 9700 MMscf (at 83.2 MMscf/d av. production), and corresponding revenues of 30.8 mln. If you deduct the 7.1 mln from the Ziwani carry, there’s surprisingly still a “gap” of 7.5 mln.... Perhaps the new accounting strategy covering the “Opex call from the operator” effect? + some other liabilities? (The “gap” in 2017 was 4.6 mln)

In any case, I’m very happy to see that all these liabilities are disappearing quickly now. We’re gearing up for an excellent 2nd half of the year I think (especially if we can increase production rates) but unfortunately I don’t expect a significant increase in cash just yet....

Very good news: money is coming in consistently, final bills are being paid, Mnazi Bay is performing better than expected, the Nadimba inlet pressure has been/ will be dropped and a big demand increase is expected in Q3. All very encouraging! Amazing that nobody seems to care (except the now seriously desperate Aminex shareholders of course)

Looking forward to a big production increase soon!

http://www.lse.co.uk/regulatory-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=r396v5pa&ArticleHeadline=Wentworth_Resources_Plc__Posting_of_Annual_Report_Notice_of_2019_Annual_General_Meeting_Operational_Update

Just to make it clear how risky this investment is Perky. But indeed, if they get the licence then Aminex will get a second life again.

Two more nails and the coffin is closed: 1) an admission that KN-1 cannot be remediated 2) notification thar TPDC is not interested in pursuing an expensive and risky project such as Ntorya....

“Progressing further remedial work on the Kiliwani North-1 well, which produced intermittently in 2018”

So nicely phrased.....

Revenue from gas sales was US$ 47,000 (page 45), so total 2018 production was approx 20 MMscf.... so indeed, KN-1 may have produced for a few days, but essentially it was however shut-in practically the whole year.

It just shows again the main problem that I have with this company: so many misleading statements, leading to a total lack of trust. Meanwhile good old Jay is filling his pockets with his 15% salary increase on an already incredibly high salary.... he certainly is well prepared for the future!

BG,

You can’t compare 2p reserves with 2C resources; particularly the “development unclarified” resources are highly uncertain.

If you want to compare 2C Ntorya resources with Mnazi Bay, have to look at summary of the contingent resources in the CPR from May 2018, page vii. Total Mnazi Bay Prospective resources “best estimate” gross volume is 1.512 BCF

Some final comments on this:

“already working on remediation of KN1”.... you mean the work that has been ongoing for ages now? oh sure... good luck with that one....Why did bounty oil pull out by the way?

WEN production: if you assure that break-even production is around 60 MMscf/d (slowly dropping), then it is quite obvious why profit is still limited at 80 MMscf/d. However, it also means that profit doubles going from 80 to 100 MMscf/d, and triples at 120 MMscf/d

If the Ntorya partners fund the pipeline, then the gas sales price will be higher, so even more reason to maximise production from Mnazi Bay....

TPDC’s stake in Mnazi Bay is already 20%, and the GSA was agreed years ago already, up to a rate of 130 MMscf/d

So TPDC can just spend money as they like and not look at the business case..... Really.....

If all goes well in Ntorya, so the wells are successfully drilled, the pipeline is constructed and the GSA is agreed, then Aminex will hold a smaller stake in a smaller field then Wentworth, producing at a lower rate for at least a couple of years.... how exciting sounds that.... especially if you realise that Aminex is still more expensive (greater market cap) then WEN....

“Under section 8 of the Bill, the TPDC was mandated as the official National Oil Company (NOC). Furthermore, the NOC was required to maintain a participating interest of no less than 25% on projects. PA 2015 has revised the drafting stating that the NOC shall indeed maintain a 25% participating interest 'unless the National Oil Company decides otherwise'.”

http://www.mondaq.com/x/442256/Oil+Gas+Electricity/Tanzania+Petroleum+Act+2015

Ok, not entirely clear, but the message remains the same: Ntorya is a very expensive project for TPDC while there are much cheaper and less risky alternatives.

So that you guys have something to read (copies from the WEN forum)

Well, well, we’ll! What a honour, a visit from CrustyPete, Aminex’ champion fan club forum member!

I’m looking forward to your contributions here Pete, and the nice thing is, you can actually have a real debate without somebody constantly twisting your words or removing your post…. No naughty policing policy from Perky here, very refreshing.

My key question to you: The pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba (EPS + full field) will cost TPDC about US$ 30 mln I understand. Given that TPDC is by law obliged to also take a 25% stake in the project , TPDC will have to pay perhaps another $40 mln from gas sales (so approx. 70 mln US$ in total) before they start earning money on Ntorya.
How long do you think it will take before TPDC will be writing black numbers on Ntorya? 5 years? 7 years even? If it takes so long, don’t you think that it would be more sensible for TPDC to invest in Mnazi Bay, which is much cheaper to develop further (at low risk) and contains far greater reserves…. I obviously don’t need to tell you that TPDC is in practice nearly bankrupt, so a guaranteed income soon would be very welcome of course.

Sorry to say, but Ntorya remains stranded, and I expect that it will remain so for years to come. I think Aminex should focus on trying to start a new development around Kiliwani, which is much easier to produce from TPDC’s perspective. Any plan B in fact…. if Jay wants to make this company survive (assuming he doesn’t just wants to fill his pockets….)

So to come back to your own question:

No, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or have any special skills to work out that WEN is in a vastly better position than Aminex. Common sense is all you need.

Anyway…..

Looking forward to your answer, and please without the verbal abuse. Unfortunately you seem to be incapable of doing that these days, so don’t expect too many answers from me in that case….

Finally: don’t take these boards too serious… WEN isn’t a hype company; the price will only move up on business performance (which I expect soon), so to me, it really doesn’t matter what you write here. If you feel you need to “destroy/kill/attack” this board with endless insults, personal attacks and further drivel, just go ahead…..

Well, well, we’ll! What a honour, a visit from CrustyPete, Aminex’ champion fan club forum member!

I’m looking forward to your contributions here Pete, and the nice thing is, you can actually have a real debate without somebody constantly twisting your words or removing your post…. No naughty policing policy from Perky here, very refreshing.

My key question to you: The pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba (EPS + full field) will cost TPDC about US$ 30 mln I understand. Given that TPDC is by law obliged to also take a 25% stake in the project , TPDC will have to pay perhaps another $40 mln from gas sales (so approx. 70 mln US$ in total) before they start earning money on Ntorya.
How long do you think it will take before TPDC will be writing black numbers on Ntorya? 5 years? 7 years even? If it takes so long, don’t you think that it would be more sensible for TPDC to invest in Mnazi Bay, which is much cheaper to develop further (at low risk) and contains far greater reserves…. I obviously don’t need to tell you that TPDC is in practice nearly bankrupt, so a guaranteed income soon would be very welcome of course.

Sorry to say, but Ntorya remains stranded, and I expect that it will remain so for years to come. I think Aminex should focus on trying to start a new development around Kiliwani, which is much easier to produce from TPDC’s perspective. Any plan B in fact…. if Jay wants to make this company survive (assuming he doesn’t just wants to fill his pockets….)

So to come back to your own question:

No, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or have any special skills to work out that WEN is in a vastly better position than Aminex. Common sense is all you need.

Anyway…..

Looking forward to your answer, and please without the verbal abuse. Unfortunately you seem to be incapable of doing that these days, so don’t expect too many answers from me in that case….

Finally: don’t take these boards too serious… WEN isn’t a hype company; the price will only move up on business performance (which I expect soon), so to me, it really doesn’t matter what you write here. If you feel you need to “destroy/kill/attack” this board with endless insults, personal attacks and further drivel, just go ahead…..

Pleasure Alph,

It’s almost fun these days to post something on the Aminex forum; the response is always the same: quick, predictable and absurd... I think I‘ll do it more often from now on! ??

Wow.... your bitterness level is really staggering. And that from a guy who called this company a strong buy, even at a price of 7.20. How many people did you dupe with that I wonder. It would speak for you if you had apologised for your utterly misjudged recommendation, as well as to the people who dared to disagree with you. But no, mr. Nasty is too busy with getting on with his own life... Had you followed my advice then, you would be a whole lot richer!

And let me warn you again: I think there is a serious chance that it won’t end in a happy way for Aminex. The speculation spikes are getting smaller and shorter and nothing is moving in Tanzania... which might take a few more years stillit may take a very long time still.

Did you actually have the

Why did you actually jump into this discussion Crusty? Do you feel you have to coordinate the discussions here and stir it up a bit with some acquisitions, provocations and insults just to make “your forum” more entertaining?

Great life to be getting on with Crusty. I’m glad I’m not your neighbour... tired, old, sour and angry discussions...

guess the losses are becoming heavy huh?

?

You really sound like a bitter old guy these days Crusty... Amazing. I used to rate you much higher than some other guys here, who focus mainly on hyping up a share and provoke others who disagree.

Now regarding Malcy: Where did I say that end of last year? I didn’t. In fact I rarely comment on Malcy (ok, yes, yesterday I did) simply because I’m not at all impressed at his “analysis” and past recommendations. The guy should at least explain how he earns his money, and if he holds any shares in the companies he recommends.

But good luck to you Crusty, it’s a long wait for everybody, so I’m sure there will be plenty of time for other discussions in future.

What an aggression Crusty.... I almost start thinking you are suffering from high blood pressure...

My interest in Aminex is simple to explain: it’s a company working in exactly the same country and sector as WEN.

Now while I indeed don’t hold any shares in AEX, it doesn’t mean that I don’t want the company to prosper, and whether or not you believe that, that is my sincere opinion.
My fear is that there is almost a generally accepted practice in Tanzania to screw foreign companies as much as possible. Bad for all companies, and a key reason why development in Tanzania is so slow.
If Aminex did receive some payments last year, at least it would be a positive sign that TPDC trying to meet al their obligations.

Regarding Kiliwani: why invest money remediating a well if you don’t get paid for the produced gas in the first place?

Let’s see what the numbers say next week. Will Aminex have received a few payments from TPDC in 2018? I fear the worst to be honest.

GC,

On the one hand, I think Eskil should be pragmatic about this: if it really helps, pay this guy some money (all absolutely voluntarily... of course) to promote the company, hire some other guys to write about the company on forums like and create a “positive vibe” and spend some further money on fake trades to boost liquidity. (AIM appears to be almost designed for this....)
On the other hand, I think it is a sign of confidence that he doesn’t waste money on such practices. Malcy barely exceeds the level of pub talk there days: no fundamentals, no numbers, no calculations, no analysis, absolutely nothing, except sentiment. After his nonsense about Caza and a few other companies some years ago (have a read) I put him on the ignore list, permanently.

Crudetrader,

Fully agree, and I’m in the same boat as you, I also hold a lot of shares in WEN. I’ve long accepted that I won’t be selling any shares anytime soon (impossible anyway right now) so I haven’t even bothered yet to move my shares from OSE to AIM....

I think a key trigger for WEN will be the COD, as this will open the door to an RBL facility, which the company can use to increase its stake In Mnazi Bay (as well as become the operator) It would not surprise me in fact if the company has some sort of agreement in place already with Maurel. Why else would you keep such a large office in Tanzania?

After COD I expect a number of announcements, so liquidity could shoot up after that (OK, coming from zero....)

Fingers crossed that it will happen soon!