Member Info for mick2020

Massive write off’s: Mozambique, tax asset and government receivables. Not unexpected but disappointing anyway. Hopefully all the skeletons are out of the closet now. Some good news as well though: Profitable from operations, debt is falling quicky and total liabilities are falling even faster (finally). Also 5.2 mln receivables from TPDC still outstanding (was worried about that) which will improve our cash position at the end of the year. If Eskil fails to deliver on all his promises, WEN will be debt free early next year and cash rich a year after. (25 mln+ cash). I think this alone should warrant a 20-30% increase in share price. If Eskil delivers on everything, so production ramp, increased stake in Mnazi Bay(?) and expansion outside of Tanz, the Price will easily multiply.... An excellent ad safe investment opportunity therefore!

Ha ha, good question Alph. First time in years that I read again about that Mtwara plant. It adds to the nonsense in the rest of the story! :-)

But I do wonder if the Kinyerezi extension could be ready earlier than expected (so Q3 instead of Q4).

“The minister named some of the projects to increase power production as the expansion of the Kinyerezi I Natural Gas Power Plant from 150 MW to 335 MW whose implementation was expected to be done by August“

And:

“...Mtwara MW 300 Power Project under the sponsorship of the Japan International Cooperation Agency expected to be done by March 2020”

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/04/tanzania-to-generate-10000-mw-by-2025/

Unfortunately, Orca alone has already plenty spare capacity:

“As at June 30, 2018 the Company had a well capacity of approximately 155 MMcfd, with the ability to expand to 180 MMcfd by producing well SS-12 through the National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project (“NNGIP”) and the installation of refrigeration which is scheduled for completion in the first half of 2019”

See: http://www.orcaexploration.com/pdfs/2018_Orca-Q2-full.pdf, page 9.

Orca’s 2019 production is expected to be 60-75 MMcsf, so plenty spare capacity.

See: http://www.orcaexploration.com/pdfs/OEG_presentation_22_2_19.pdf, slide 3

Wentworth doesn’t need a new GSA. The company is waiting on a formal CoD, licence extension and lowering of the Madimba inlet pressure (which is apparently very simple) to increase capacity from the current 80 MMscf/d to 130 MMscf/d.

But hey, you can really trust Perky to spread an “alternative” reality here!

Making progress! https://mobile.twitter.com/CSIEnergyGroup/status/1115550667639279622

“Race you to spud”
“people pumping stocks on other BB's”
“belly scraping tactic”

The only person who really sounds desperate is you Perky...

Avoid discussions and just keep pumping... you need it in this sinking ship!

Encouraging, about time as well.

Related news from probably the same meeting:

“Godfrey Simbeye, Executive Director of the Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF) was optimistic that the government will start implementing regulatory and policy reforms proposed by the private sector in the ‘Blueprint for Regulatory Reforms to Improve the Business Environment’ in the 2019/2020 financial year”

https://www.ippmedia.com/en/news/implement-approved-reform%C2%A0-blueprint-govt-told

Alph, I hope so! Certainly think that is possible! Pure speculation of course, but If WEN really wants to increase its stake in Mnazi Bay, I would say it is best (=cheapest) to do that as soon as possible, so before we increase production and start developing the field further. Perhaps they are actively talking about this right now, so that would indeed rule out any share purchases.... Key problem is, WEN doesn’t have enough money yet to increase its stake to say 45%. Not sure how they could solve this. A share placement looks highly unlikely I would say and a new loan is also unattractive. Offer M&P any remaining receivables? Income from future production? Or can WEN use the money from that take or pay account that Eskil keeps mentioning..... Hmmm.....

Totally agree Oz,

Hopefully Eskil will show his real value in selecting the right M&A opportunity.
His job in Tanzania looks almost easy right now: wait until TPDC is forced to make a deal....

I expect real news from after the rainy season.

I really hope (and expect...) that that won’t happen Alph!

Ntorya requires a lot of appraisal (and exploration) drilling with an uncertain outcome. Personally, I expect the field to consist of a number of separate smaller gas accumulations, with only a remote chance of finding oil (vitrinite reflectance is too high, so too mature for oil). Quite similar in fact to the Tembo area in Mozambique, just a little bit better. Expensive to develop and actual production could be years away. I’m really surprised that the Omanis offered so much for it. To me it remains to be proven if Ntorya can be developed commercially, so hopefully WEN will stay out of it.

I much prefer WEN to buy into a producing asset outside of Tanzania!!

Excellent presentation, very convincing story from Eskil.

This company has so much potential. With a big demand increase around the corner it’s almost hard to see where this can go wrong!

Operator of Mnazi bay (with an increased stake), flowing at 130 MMscf/d, plus stakeholder in a producing asset elsewhere in 2020?

Letter from my broker:

“European Union (EU) regulations prohibit products that are listed on an EU/EEA trading venue from being traded on a non-European (“third-country”) trading venue. Unless the European Commission grants the London Stock Exchange (LSE) with equivalence status, the United Kingdom (UK) will be considered a third-country in the event that the UK withdraws from the EU without a deal, also known as a Hard Brexit. Excluding the UK, any product that has an EU ISIN or is trading on an EU trading venue will no longer be tradable on the LSE in the event of a Hard Brexit. Additionally, a number of products with an ISIN beginning with GB will also be affected by this decision.
The list in this document consists of products that are offered on our platform and are included in
the list of affected products provided by ESMA.

.....
AMINEX IE0003073255
...

Aminex has an Irish ISIN??????

How can Wen convince UK investors?” I’d say: 1) Deliver impressive business results in terms of net profit & cash build up 2) Grow the company further, quickly Wen is a fairly safe investment now but profitability is unexciting yet (by the way, I think that Josik’s spreadsheet has been very misleading in that aspect). I like what Eskil is doing and I think his presentations are way better than the what we got in the past. With his roadshow he puts Wentworth on the radar screen already now while we wait on the contractual breakthrough in Tanzania that will clear to way to a big production increase in the second half of the year. Gas from Mnazi Bay is quite simply much cheaper than gas from Songo Songo (due to TPDC’s 20% stake in the field and a lower sales price), so I’m convinced that TPDC will always want to maximize offtake from Mnazi Bay. An additional boost this year can come if Eskil delivers on his M&A plans, but my expectations remain low, at least until COD has been formally declared (no RBL until then). No need for sexy presentations…. impressive numbers is all we need! Together with a bit more patience unfortunately....;-)

I guess the presentation will be published later today (the prenentation is in the evening).

I share your frustration Alph that liquidity remains close to zero, but I also see it as an opportunity:

decent production, steady income and a quickly falling debt right now; debt free and producing at a much higher rate in a year from now.

As soon as we hit 130 MMscf/d, this company is a screaming buy! I expect the second half of this year to become much more exciting already, with increasing demand from Dangote (only Mnazi Bay can supply) and the commissioning of the Kinyerezi extension.

The outlook is better than ever I would say, all we need is a bit more patience....

Remove his post???? This is not the Aminex forum Tanzania, there’s no policing here. I will never ask for any posts to be removed.

Besides, where’s your hard evidence that it is not true? I personally have no idea, but to me it sounds at least plausible.

Tanzania,

If all goes well for Aminex, so the licences are renewed, the next couple of wells are successful and the pipeline to the Madimba facilities gets constructed, then, in a few years Aminex has a smaller stake in a smaller gas field that produces at a lower rate than Wentworth. Despite this, Aminex is valued higher than Wentworth today already....

You certainly don’t mind a little risk it seems! Courageous at least. (Or should I call it insanity?) I think you guys have all been terribly misled, sorry to say! With no income, no production and no clear way forward regarding the development of their assets in Tanzania, Aminex is currently on the road to bankrupcy.... time for a change soon therefore!

Tanzania, With you I never know if you want a real discussion or if you just want to promote Aminex. But OK, here’s my answer: what options do the Zubair’s have apart from agreeing with the delay? They surely believe the Ntorya reserves story despite the disappointing NT-2 results. If the Zubairs pull out now they lose there investment completely. If they accept the delay, then of course they still have the option to pull out anytime if a well disappoints. My issue with Aminex is however not the Zubairs: I just don’t believe that TPDC will be allowed to make any commercial commitments (i.e. investing in an expensive pipeline) until Ntorya has been PROVEN to be commercial. And even then: investments will have to be compared with investing in e.g. the further development of Mnazi Bay, which is likely to be cheaper for quite a while still. Keep in mind that the Mtwara–Dar es Salaam Natural Gas Pipeline has been commercially a disastrous project so far, and is unlikely to generate a profit for Tanzania for years to come (350 MMscf/d gas processing capacity right now, only about 30% is actually used), and the Tanz. government will not allow another bad investment. Wentworth’s situation is of course also disappointing still (taking far too long), but at least the company is enjoying a significant income and the fundamentals are steadily improving. Aminex on the other hand has no income at all, and with all licences expired, the outlook has become highly uncertain. Can the company survive another 2 years delay? I doubt it. But good luck Tanzania, you seem to have invested a lot in Aminex, so you probably won’t agree with any of my comments anyway.

Perky,

Amazing how cocky you remain, despite a vast track record of misleading nonsense, where you were proven wrong time and again. You still don’t know what you are talking about, especially when it is about oil and gas reserves. But hey, pretending that you have a clue is all you need here.

But good for you that you still believe in this company. I suggest you increase the mortgage and buy more shares in Aminex! If you are right, you’ll be very rich soon!

Good luck!

Unfortunately not the slightest bit surprised about this new delay. Ntorya remains a high risk project that is very expensive for TPDC to bring on stream; I suspect that it will take years before the pipeline to the Madimba facility will be build.
In addition, with the Kiliwani well suffering from liquid loading due to pressure depletion, Aminex’s financial situation must be deteriorating quickly.

A miracle is needed soon, otherwise bankrupcy looms...

Alph,

If you are referring to the discussion on the Aminex forum.... it is indeed sad to see. I’m convinced that it is only a matter of time until that bubble bursts. Some guys there have been so terribly misled that they still cannot accept reality.... Will be interesting to see what happens to the rampers when the truth comes out.