Member Info for Metamorphosis84

I agree CC, they have lost the plot, another totally madcap plan.

Is this appetite for putting forward bonkers solutions contagious or something? First the board, now Coltrane.

Bill, if you and I and others can see that this proposal is going to get rejected out of hand (for whatever reason), then how is it that Coltrane can not see this? Furthermore, if I and others could see that the refinancing last spring was highly punitive and juat kicking the can down the road, then how is it that Coltrane could not see it? Last summer at the PAC, the Ceo told us that Coltrane were on board, why did they not pipe up then. And finally, I have read that Coltrane do not see the debt as being a problem of the same magnitude that the board are presenting it as being. Yet the board are saying they are days, yes days from going out of business. Just how on the ball are Coltrane here?

This is nuts. Under the Coltrane proposal, the lenders write of £435m debt and get 55% of the company. Under the Bod proposal, (already agreed with the lenders) the same amount is written of but they get 95%? I wonder which one they will go for? And what then, after Coltrane have underwritten £110m, paid £66m on top of the millions spent aquiring stock. With the bleed from Efw continuing, where would they get the cash to keep trading. Everyone involved here is so out of touch with reality putting forward audacious proposals.

This is not AIM though is it?

Ingenuity at work, you cannot argue with that

I agree Gazza, I can't think of a time the Chairman of a major listed company has gone to a national newspaper to be shareholders to vote their plan through. Very unusual. And the Coltrane plan, just seems so extraordinary that they would put forward a plan that is so unlikely to get through. And risk a further £110m of fund money to rescue how much worth of shares? Surely they know this has little chance of getting accepted. Is everyone involved just trying to save face or something?

*there is very little chance that the lenders will go for that. Then again Coltrane have decided that the lenders don't matter "The directors, in their capacity as fiduciaries to the company, should halt cooperation with lenders on implementation of their plan." I mean seriously what sort of negotiation is that supposed to be. When the company needs more money down the line, who's door would they be knocking on?

Well Coltrane have put forward their plan to Interserve. Their proposal would leave the lenders with 55% ownership. It must be the season for crackpot plans, there is very little chance that the lenders will go for that.

CC - I think you have answered your own question there.

The market obviously thinks that Coltrane are going to come up with something more favourable to shareholders.

Also there doesn't appear to be a major sell off- as the biggest holders want to keep their positions in order to participate in the forthcoming vote.

The Chairman has summed it up in the Telegraph article this morning. This is the only deal.

Ok, put your trust in the competence of the government and the mercy of the banks then.

Literally 20 minutes after I write here:

"to the reply "but nobody wants that scenario", I can only remind people that nobody wanted the Carillion outcome. But that is what they got."

I get a reply
". No one wants a repeat of it, so all pressure will be to reach a satisfactory resolution"

Please dont make me repeat myself!

CC- I guess you read that bit about reputational damage and the possibility of loss of confidence in clients and the supply chain as well then? I agree, the arguing is a nightmare. What way will this go? To be honest, the situation is now so dire that I think the balance of likelihood is that IRV will either go into a Mouchel style pre pack administration, or Carillion style liquidation. The de-leveraging plan is so bonkers that even though the board recommend it to be in shareholders interest to get it through (well, sort of), I can see shareholders voting against it, just for the sheer hell of it. The lack of confidence within the supply chain coupled with a number of contracts requiring the company to operate as a listed company make administration less likely. Nobody wants it, but Carillion style liquidation is a more likely outcome. Imho. Oh and to the reply "but nobody wants that scenario", I can only remind people that nobody wanted the Carillion outcome. But that is what they got.

I get that, but looking for a decent entry point on a share that in

3 days has gone from 9p to 25p down to 16p, back to 22p then down to 17p. The other day it was down 11% at breakfast, up 10% at lunch down 5% at tea and up 50% on the day.

There is no support, no resistance, no moving averages, nothing to assist even the most experienced analyst in picking the right entry point.

A decent entry point? On this share? Good look trying to work that out

Utterly stupid flotation. Both in timing and tactics. Basically trash talking your own industry in the week of flotation.
Cuck-oo.

Spot on Daniel.

I see this all the time stuff along the lines of "this is just the MMs playing games its way oversold, going to keep buying." Or "this is being played by the shorters, need to keep buying"

It is madness to on one hand claim manipulation and point out that a share is susceptible to short attacks, only to open new long positions.

Bill - i think the EGM has to be called 28 days from the request made under Section 303 of the companies act. Not 28 days from when their intentions appear in the media.
Its a technicality, but an important one.

"The questions remains. Who is buying? any why?" I agree it is unlikely, very unlikely to be Coltrane as if they go over 30% share ownership they would have to make a takeover bid at the highest price they have bought shares for in the last 12 months. Potentially 120p. So who else, the volumes we have seen today look more than just PI's. But what II would be mad enough to speculate on a company that has just reported terrible results and put forward an absolutely barking deleveraging plan (complete with a lengthly risk register)? I still wouldn't dismiss it being an II having a punt. Coltrane have stated that they don't believe that the balance sheet to be bad as IRV make out (which is mad) so maybe other IIs are kidding themselves too?

Kenj - I think you are right, the horse has bolted for Coltrane. The threat of litigation has little teeth if the company goes into administration as there won't be a company to sue. I suppose they could go after the likes of Rothschild. A NY hedgie vs one of the biggest, richest and oldest institutions in the world. Good luck with that one