Some Humble analysis12 Sep 2025 14:14
Take from it what you will:
1. Mr H is working full time on getting this SP down, and has been for ages.
2. Logical inference: it’s worth a substantial sum to somebody, i.e. he or someone he works for is short for a substantial amount.
3. There is clearly some particular focus on today. Possibly this afternoon has been earmarked as the time to close the short. This may because of the possibility of an “Ethiopia finance closed” RNS early next week.
4. Mr H’s general methodology is creating fear that he knows something, or can understand something, that you don’t or can’t.
5. In terms of specific methodology, the stakes went up a bit today. There was a very specific claim made about 12pm, quite possibly accompanied by a £40k short placed at that time to try to (a) start a slide, and (b) lend plausibility to the claim. Didn’t work.
6. There has been a very specific claim made that there will be a placing today. If not, any credibility is gone. So the next two hours are kind of last chance saloon.
7. Although he hasn’t tried it yet, it would be consistent with his general methodology (“I know something you don’t”), and with the apparent paramount importance of today, for Mr H to resort this afternoon to an outright lie that a placing has actually been launched (he or people he knows have been called by brokers etc). If my analysis above is right, it’s surely not unlikely that this would be tried as a last resort.
So, if he does claim this afternoon that a placing is actually underway, I would suggest a certain degree of scepticism unless independently verified.
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