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There’s a fair amount of warrants outstanding but not an unusually large amount. And the presence of warrants is pretty standard for pre-revenue companies in this sector. It doesn’t necessarily hold the SP back - see Mkango earlier this year, for example

Not sure what you’re on about there duster. It’s not a new issue of warrants. It’s an exercise of existing warrants. That’s an action of the warrant holders, not the company

There are lots of ways to win from here:

1. Sell the news effect wears off and sanity returns to the SP.

2. Offtake and/or drill result news prompts significant SP increase.

3. Financing achieved - targeted Q1.

4. Buyout offer.

5. Buyout agreed.

Well AETC certainly have the expertise to produce SPG: it is they who have already achieved our most standout results spheronising Orom-Cross graphite. I guess they will have less experience doing it on an industrial scale but that has to be weighed against the advantages of a US partner. Whatever the outcome, I’m pleased we’re open to either option

I thought there was a noticeable openness to using AETC as our SPG partner (as opposed to the Chinese company previously mentioned). Mike wasn’t committing either way but clearly looking to keep all options open and perhaps looking for competing bids effectively from US and China

The company absolutely delivered on the bullish talk, the NPV and IRR were beyond all expectations

ID78, I hope that in saying this my “Blencowe credentials” are beyond doubt (having been here for years and always supportive). I think you’re wrong about FAR. The DFS economics there are strong, particularly following the reduced capex. And they’ll get stronger still when the ‘CBS from waste’ component is introduced. They’ve also hardly started in terms of the resource they have. I’m not going to engage in comparisons with Blencowe. I think both companies are very well placed for the next few months

I think we had all gotten the impression from the previous RNS that year end was unlikely. If anything I take the current RNS as a positive - it may actually still be by year end

In case anyone is minded to read: https://x.com/metalhead2525/status/1995620922678813090?s=46&t=Jne_cUYLxmaxpafySDDQ2A

Today BRES released a DFS with an NPV10 of $1.1bn. Also today/yesterday, GGP released a DFS in which they saw fit to use an NPV5. So, what if BRES had used an NPV5? Well, I asked Google AI:

“If a set of cashflows spread evenly over 15 years produces an NPV10 of 1.1x, what is the NPV5 of those cashflows?”

Answer: $1.87 billion. Obviously there are some simplifying assumptions but there’s an indication of our NPV5. Tasty

Two things going on here. First, there was always going to be substantial selling today because so many people took “the DFS trade” (this was very obvious on X, slightly less so on here). Those people were always going to be hovering over the sell button as soon as the DFS came out. This effect would actually have led to a red day had the DFS been mediocre. Because it’s so great we have got a nice blue day, but nevertheless the traders are exiting and that tempers the rise. Second, the MMs love a tree shake.

To be having a blue day despite the above is a very good sign in my view. And these effects are transitory. Once the “sell the news” crew are out, replaced by serious investors who see what we have here, this will start a relentless push higher (again, in my view). Loads of news flow coming up to help it on its way also

That is absolutely stunning. What an NPV. What an IRR. What a capex ratio. This is one of the most financially attractive DFS-stage projects in the world

I share the sentiment of a lot of the comments on here. I would greatly have preferred a company not within the CB stable, and I agree that we seem to be giving away a lot for $700k, particularly when we can easily fund that amount ourselves. However, I think there are some significant saving graces:

Logically, the transactions by which JLP makes money out of copper ore from Molefe can be broken down into (a) sale of copper ore to Sable, and (b) sale of processed copper to third parties. As I read it, this deal gives away 24% of (a) but none of (b). I imagine there is more money in processing than in selling raw ore (certainly JLP's apparent ability to pick up multiple abundant sources of ore for very little would suggest so). In that case, we should be keeping 100% of the majority of our Molefe/Sable revenue stream. 

2. A major question is: why not just pay for a mining contractor and a drilling team ourselves? It's a fair question but I think the answer may have to do with management bandwidth. We have an abundance of assets, and elements within assets, which we want to exploit but appear not to have the bandwidth to do so. Hence the slow progress on everything except (arguably Sable and Roan). I suspect a large part of the attraction here is the ability to just farm out the problem of working out how to progress Molefe, and implementing that, to somebody else, thereby freeing up bandwidth to focus on some of the other stuff.  I can sort of see the attraction of that. Of course, the counter-argument is: just hire more people in house. But I can certainly see a perspective that, if we can just get some of this stuff going, and quicker, it will be worth the bit of lost equity.

I think the initial (trader) reaction to the DFS will be largely driven by the NPV and how eye-catching it is. But in reality the more important metric, and the one that will drive valuation on a timescale of months, is NPV:Capex ratio. Or, perhaps more precisely since we will be building in phases, the NPV:Unfunded Capex ratio. If these metrics look good, we will get funded to production or bought out, in which case there is no way we don’t make a good lot of money from this level - it becomes only a question of time. AIMHO

Knowing how the market works, I’m not expecting a JORC upgrade (particularly one focussed on category conversion and therefore lacking eye catching numbers) to trigger the next move up. I do think the DFS will do it, although how it does it will depend on the NPV figure. If it’s very large, we may get an instant run. If it’s more in the $600m area I suspect a slower rise as some PIs leave and are replaced by institutional investment. But it that scenario I still think the re-rate happens, it just may take a number of weeks.

The other thing that could spark a fast run up is more offtake news. In particular, if anything comes of that NASA link, that could certainly do it!

No great surprise given the severity and location of that storm. The ounces that don’t come out this year will just come out next year instead

The expansion of the solar contract is good but I’m not keen on “subject to no significant adverse weather in the final two months which could potentially delay the solar PV installations, remains on track to deliver Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in line with market expectations”. The impression given in the summer was that guidance had been set low so that a beat would be very likely. In that context, ‘we should hit guidance as long as the weather isn’t bad in winter’ is a little underwhelming

My thoughts on X: https://x.com/metalhead2525/status/1988315211145900445?s=46&t=Jne_cUYLxmaxpafySDDQ2A

Mike in the interview is unsurprisingly non-committal on Charles’s $1 billion figure, but certainly doesn’t rubbish it. Personally my gut feel is that we won’t quite get to that number: I have $700-750m in mind, which would be a brilliant result.

I think it’s in our interests as holders not to get too carried away with expecting $1bn or very close to that. Otherwise we risk creating a scenario where a really good result lands as a disappointment. There is no good reason for that to be the case.

Excellent news this morning. This is the key to unlocking a scale transformation here