Member Info for Metalhead25

Hi, and welcome to the seemingly many newcomers! One point to have in mind, for those who don’t know, is that First Quantum provide quarterly updates to AFP, the timing of which is such that we would normally get an update from AFP approximately in the next 2-3 weeks. There is a possibility that the rainy season in Zambia will mean either that there is no update this quarter or that it is less substantial than it would otherwise be, but we will see. There is certainly a decent chance of some more positive news flow in the near term, quite apart from Namibia financing

Excellent news. You don’t half get a lot for £4m market cap here

Great post, Poppyseed. My strong feeling is that this is going to come good. I also see that bet as extremely low risk given that our forward EV is below zero assuming full implementation of the TVM sale

Terry, a comment so good you posted it twice.

At the risk of stating the obvious, close for ARCM meant the start of a revenue-free exploration period and a whole lot of waiting. For AET, close means substantial profits rolling in immediately. It’s really not very similar at all

My take:
- overall positive
- very enthusiastic and positive about HMS
- key point on HMS: by end of May we should be producing *separated* HMS products which will enable (a) confirmation of offtake partner, and (b) sales (albeit smaller volume than when the full plant is up and running).
- also positive about sale of TVM: repeated statements that if buyer were to pull out we would keep the money and the mine (ie they’re not going to pull out).
- agree with Basher that it was a bit foot-shuffly re diamonds. Reading between the lines I think Alexkor are probably a bit of a basket case / totally useless. Seems we’ve done everything we need to do and the diamond side *should* now be sorted, but it’s over to Alexkor, so…
- Very positive on future opportunities, particularly those which may come from new cornerstone shareholder

Closing of both deals 40-45p?

If you wait for revenues of 350 million a year I suspect you’ll be paying a bit more than 15p a share…

Hi Nige, yes I can see Corcel and NPC might have a back up plan for this situation - will have to see. One option, I suppose, would be for Corcel and NPC to make an offer to buy BM’s interest. Indeed, it seems not out of the question that BM might even be manoeuvring for such an offer. But we don’t have enough info to form any view on that. Has to be a case of await developments I think

Hi Corcel crew

Well-wishing former shareholder here. A quick bit on how pre-emption rights work, for anyone who doesn’t know. Corcel and Battery Metals will be shareholders in a company which holds the Mambare rights (Oro Nickel, from memory?). The articles or shareholders agreement of that company will contain pre-emption rights. These mean that, if one shareholder (Corcel or BM) proposes to sell its shares to a third party, they first have to give notice to the other shareholder and that shareholder has the option to buy the shares instead, for the same amount. So here, Corcel has presumably notified BM of an intention to sell to the NPC JV, and BM has said “no, we’ll buy them instead”. So Corcel will (a) lose its stake in Mambare, (b) not be able to complete the NPC JV on the current terms (presumably have to renegotiate), but (c) get some cash from BM. The amount of the cash is unknown and presumably not straightforward to calculate - it will likely depend on some valuation of the JV. In practice, would imagine it will have to be negotiated with BM.

This is a unilateral exercise of rights by BM. It can’t really be a good or bad deal as such because it isn’t a deal, it’s just something BM have decided to do. Whether it’s a good thing for Corcel would seem to depend on (a) how much cash (currently unknown), (b) what you thought of the NPC JV terms, and (c) whether you think PNG are ever going to give Oro Nickel a mining licence. If, like me, you are increasingly despairing of (c), it might be a good thing overall - although, as I say, it’s not something the Corcel board have done on purpose. DYOR of course

What a nice surprise that the new bill has been passed so quickly. I have a really good feeling that this is going to unlock the MDA for us in the near future. The past few months have been a story of the Mining Minister repeatedly announcing that they are about to sign and then it not happening, seemingly due to the AG. If the effect of the new bill is to take the final authority away from the AG and give it to the Mining Ministry I think we will see progress quickly

Even if the rain impedes substantial drilling, there’s a lot more to exploration - geophysics, soils, modelling. I think there will be a substantial update

Noel wrote: “ Prices don't move in a straight line - there will be up days on the way down. Those rises draw in the mugs who think the bottom has been reached, but it hasn't. The rise fizzles out and the next down leg comes along.”

Have to say, looking at the chart I disagree. Since the big fall we have seen a sequence of higher lowers and higher highs. The current trend points upwards. I find it instructive to compare PXC’s chart (pointing up since the drop) to AGL’s after it crashed a few months ago (dwindling recovery with lower highs)

Pretty good update for me:

YTD production stronger than I expected
Guidance confirms production increasing
On track for 20-22,000 bbd in the fairly near future
Great increase in reserves
More reference to M&A boosting production further

Hi all

I’ve added £5k just now. The next FQ update should be in the next 2-4 weeks and in the run up to the previous two updates the SP rose in anticipation. Also agree that news on Namibia is overdue and could come soon. I have previously stated my view that AFP is grossly undervalued and never more so than at these medium term lows. Good time to buy in my opinion

Absolutely remarkable to get two good holes for free. Most CEOs wouldn’t have achieved this. In fact, the bad ones wouldn’t even have bothered to try

Very promising update. The prostate test looks like being the company maker it promised to be when the accuracy results were announced

Great that we have managed to get a free drill hole in what is an increasingly promising project. Seems clear we have a geological formation of high potential and good size. Question now is can we find higher grades

I don’t answer your questions because you’re acting in bad faith. You want to drag the company and the SP down. Engaging with you helps you to do that. You are best ignored, save to highlight your agenda

It is by you - the company troll

Pekingduck:

“ The days of sub $20k AISC on tin production alone are over” Well, the RNS says that the costs increase caused by the stripping rates issue is TEMPORARY.

“The only way ATM can address this is to start producing and selling Li. Todays statement doesn’t even give any certainties on this, they’e still evaluating options for separating Li and the best AV could muster was it ‘could’ lead to a saleable Li product.” This is a very tortured negative take on the wording of the RNS. I read the conditionality of “could” as indicating “if we decide to use that process”, not as expressing any doubt over whether it works.

“Cash will run out again unless the finance package is in place by May” No, because the finance package appears to be the major cause of the AISC increase. Either we have the finance and the AISC increase or we don’t and we don’t