Member Info for meshtrader

top line beat; 3.3% vs 1.5%( expected). In numbers, 11.1billion vs 10.50billion expected.

EBIDTA target for the full year on tack to 15-15.4billion.

The current sp is trading at 2x expected EBIDTA

Let's park the larger buyer aside for now.

At some point T, FTSE and European markets will be self adjusting to close the run-away gap to the US markets. They really have de-coupled and this kind of tectonic shift is bound to happen. Really an inevitable shift in asset re-pricing.

The question is, therefore, when twill hat time T occur? I have no crystal balls, but I am already observing signs that EURO and the FTSe markets are shifting up gears. Simply look at the 2008/2009 lows, US has rocketed beyond recognition, leaving Europe in its dust. This asymmetry can, indeed, continue far longer than you and can remain solvent, but the laws of nature love the reversion to the mean. Europe is right now way below that mean and the US way above.

As a curioso, look at Slack with zero profits and a product that can be attained for free from either Google or Microsoft. The company was acquired by Salesforce for a mind numbing sum of $40billion. Not much less than that of Vodafone who is pumping tons of FCF annually.

Now, I don't want to get into the debate of tech stocks etc., but something is amiss when you have Zoom trading at 100billion, whose products are really worthless given the free alternatives. One can put a political spin and posit the US companies have easier access to free money (or acting as proxies of the FED), allowing them to buy up companies in other regions in the world at depressed levels. Guess what, that's exactly what they are doing. It's easy to achieve this feat given the USD's status as a petro dollar and world reserve currency status. You simply print money at your will and force your subordinates to accept it in exchange for goods.

In my opinion, what is happening and unravelling before our eyes, is a new kind of warfare.

"Up again today bit of a rise all over and here. Will it last I’m at odds with taking a position but I think I’ll hold out a bit longer dows only about 200 points off it’s peak again this hasn’t been the correction I was expecting."
--

Everything is relative! When the world is awash with printed money left and right, how does one define correction? During insane monetary supply increases, a mere a stagnation of a share price (given that the underlying security is performing well), is a correction in itself as the price is not self adjusting to account for inflationary pressures. Just have a look at the following chart of Campbell's Soup price adjustments over time.

We are not operating under normal conditions by any measure. These are unprecedented times, hence my own, at times, shocked reaction to what I see as far as the price action is concerned. Central banks have thrashed currencies so cash is trash - literally.

In summary, I appreciate your frustration, but the current flood gates of the money supply forces cash to find a home yesterday. Those who are sitting on cash mountains like Buffett have to do so, because if he was to buy a couple of billions worth of, let's say BP, drawing from his 150 billion cash pile, then he would catapult the sp to 400 level in no time. So his game plan is drastically different to us pebbles. And there are many like him and Berkshire.

If big guys really want to play, they make an offer for the entire company, that's why you get to hear a lot, even here on these boards, about potential acquisitions for some of the constituents of the FTSE, because right now, its one of the most under valued markets in the Western world.

If I had a say at the board level, I would be focusing on two critical KPIs during this transformational phase for BP, Shell and other oil majors;

A) Transitioning into renewables in a financially sustainable and profitable manner over as long period as possible
B) Buy back as much of the floated shares as possible even if it comes at the expense of dividends

I believe A is already being conducted. As for B, this will ensure the ship can set sail without the volatility of the high seas. In lieu of the reduced dividend or perhaps none, shareholders will in return see their shares appreciate in value.

His alleged credentials:
"Crispus Nyaga is a self-taught financial analyst and trader with more than seven years in the industry. He has worked for some of the biggest brokers in Europe and Australia as an analyst, coach, and course creator. He has a wealth of experience in equities, currencies, commodities, and global macroeconomic issues. He has also published for prominent financial publications like SeekingAlpha, Forbes, Investing.com, and Marketwatch. Crispus graduated with a Bachelor’s of Science in 2013, an MBA in 2017, and is currently working on an MSc in Financial Engineering from WorldQuant University. When he is not trading and writing, you can find him relaxing with his son."

I have one thing to say, LOL

"According this bp is Overton what basis can they say that?"
--
with a 99% likelihood, pulled out of their behind. Anyone worth their salt would publish how they arrive at their valuation. They say DCF. Sure, show me your numbers!

FYI. - check out where this Mickey Mouse "analyst" is operating from and may be shutting down as soon as they have achieved their "targets".

+44 (0)2031 399 075
Ace Smart Global Limited
Vistra Corporate Services Centre, Suite 23, 1st Floor,
Eden Plaza, Eden Island, Mahe,
Republic of Seychelles

At the end of Nov 2020 BP was trading around these levels, where the crude stood at $47-ish and vaccines not yet approved.
Nothing illustrates and depicts a broken market better than what we are witnessing right now.

FTSE is becoming a playground for all kinds of manipulation and the yanks are the beneficiaries. When a security like BP crashes by 3.5% with only 20m shares traded, you know something is fishy. Would love to analyse the call options volume for BP later today.

Regardless, the UK institutional investors are a bunch of p&$$ies with no conviction and certainly no b$$ls to take on "risk". Simply a bunch of number crunchers with a narrow mind and short term focus, the influence of which has devastating effect on the confidence of the broader market participants in the UK, when the floor is not protected vigorously.

"I do agree with mole_man here. I don't see any company will buy VOD. Who would want to take over its huge debt?? Also there must be competition issues involved."
---
What a naive viewpoint and no wonder the yanks are running rings around the Brits.

So much moaning and whining on here. A few seem to think investments in shares such as VOD are like the casino tokens, fartCoins with massive volatility. It appears as if you have lost sight of what you are doing?

You are simply not cut out to do this, so please spare us our serenity by selling up/down and move on to whatever rocks your boat. Whatever you do, please don't write drivel on these boards.

If you are interested in magic, fairy tales and pinky dust, get on the $hitCoin gravy train and leave us ignorant mortals in peace.

Thanks in advance for saving me and others time.

"Hi meshtrader my friend, VOD's SP has been hoovering at these levels for so many years. Whether we like it or not, perhaps we have to accept that this is probably the true value. Otherwise how else can we explain why it can never even get near to those brokers' target prices"
---
The market can remain irrational for a long time. Also, even if the share remains at these levels, you are still getting 6%-7% a year.

"What really puzzles me still is the continuing positive broker ratings. E.g. Credit Suisse outperform 150p.
Do they not value their credibility?"
--
what's puzzling? This share is significantly under valued regardless of how you cut it.

Kingalf, I tend to agree.

Also worth bearing in mind is that this is not a competition. We all should have our own unique goals and objectives with any investment. Whether anyone buys or sells should not deter you from your own path.

With any investment the trick is to figuring out how your ROI over a pre-defined time frame is likely to be. For any buyer of MRW (net debt aside as it can be handled by a sell and lease-back scheme), it will, in a simplistic term, take a buyer at least 10 years to get their money back (based on a 500m annual profit).

PEs are savvy and they do indeed see a great potential in MRW simply because of the property portfolio so they can reduce the ROI term, but above a certain threshold (share price), the opportunity wont be as tasty any longer.

The financial equation has to be balanced. Having said that, we all know of Softbanks(owner of Fortress) track record of less than prudent investments. WeWork springs to mind :) So they may be willing to cough up significantly more than the asset may be worth.

What the recent waves of takeover targets are proving is that many UK listed companies are significantly undervalued compared to their peers.

Checking the transaction log, I can confirm it was executed at 2.66 and not 2.67. Sorry about that.

morning all, I just cashed out at 267. Very happy to conclude my business at these levels as there are plenty of other opportunities out there to be explored.
Good luck everybody.

"There's too low volume on declared short positions left after June, they'll get it pretty much for the same price as TO, marginally above it but insignificantly anyway."
--
Agreed, but per the latest short tracker, it's still a sizeable volume of ca 39m shares. The average trading volume is ca 8m shares.

6.3[offer]/2.41[outstanding shares]--> 2.614p

one thing is for sure; live shorts will be panic covering this week :D

Wow this deal reeks of foul insider/CXO play. The bidder is offering ca 20% below the fair price and the management is happy to accept?? Really interested to review the CXOs remuneration offers as part of this transaction.

On the face value, this is a shady deal.

Following one of the most logical paths, a second offer (not BAFOA) is very likely to be @~295

Further incremental increases beyond the above will have diminishing (and negative) returns for a potential buyer. In my view, any entity who is serious about making a deal will be coughing up at least 295.